Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
The two big Tesla bears who really had the power to move the share price were David Tamberrino of GS and Colin Langan of UBS. Unfortunately for Tesla shorts they both snuck out the back door months ago without telling anyone.

CNBC has already done their best - a weird story about Tesla 'hiding something' in tents is the top news story on their website after hours - incredibly it doesn't even mention today's share price movement!
As usual a misleading headline. They have put up temporary tents to hide testing structures from public view.
 
Don't sweat it.

Some of the things that really makes you money cannot be learned. The biggest money making opportunity is in 2009 when the stock market crashed. But you have to have something wrong with you to be able to borrow money and buy the dip at that time. Nothing to do with logic or strategy at all. Nothing works but plain old hidden undiagnosed psychopathic tendencies.
Not really psychopathic. Buffet said to buy when there's blood in the streets. The problem is to be able to predict it or have dumb luck to be flush with cash when it happens. I remember the day Citi shares were going for <$1/share, but I had no cash and I think no trading account other than 401k that went down with the market. I remember the feeling "I wish I had cash" to buy that day.
I guess a good discipline would have you to keep cash for that occasion, but it is more likely to happen when you have so much cash that you future is not impacted when only half of your cash is invested. That is, if you're already a millionaire and can afford to not care about making money.
 
Threat to tesla's brand in the near term.
I just want to get your guys thoughts on elon musk's compensation package. As we may well hit 100 billion dollar market cap soon I can only imagine the headlines "elon musk get billion dollar pay day , while workers get paided low wages ......" .
I think every time Tesla hits the market cap goals for elons compensation package he should gift some of the shares to Tesla workers , this not only looks better but helps align them with the company goals as they have more invested interest in teslas success. otherwise i suspect increasing anger from political figures and activists in the media directed at elon, especially as he could be the richest person in america in just a few years time.

No. What Dana hull reports on is inconsequential to Tesla's image. Doing things just to appease her and convince her to not write tripe against Tesla is counter productive. Just ignore her drivel.

Also, it's about shareholder control. Elon has said he'd be last to sell his shares. Keeping the shares is the perfect defense against a hostile takeover (like what the Saudi PIF tried to do). Donating them to others just means they'll be sold at some point to unfriendly shareholders.
 
Man, for the first time ever, I spent some time reading through Mark Spiegel's twitter feed. I read tweet after tweet, on and on and on. One delusion after another. I was thinking to myself subconsciously - how far back (in time) have I gotten after reading a couple hundred tweets? Maybe 3 months? Possibly more. But, the tweets were about more up to date stuff so I was confused. Finally decided to look at the date and oh my, I only made it back to Dec 13th.

This guy is ATE UP!! I mean he has gone totally mental.

PLEASE READ. VERY IMPORTANT!!!

I want to tell y'all something else that freaked me out about reading his tweets. A few days ago, I happened across a post someone had made about recommending people not buy a Tesla. It piqued my interest so I read it, and made comments in the thread. Here's the thread:

Why I recommend AGAINST buying a Tesla

The post seemed VERY odd to me because the poster had gone from a Tesla LOVER to a Tesla HATER with essentially nothing in between. This is what I commented to someone else about this this poster (before I ever read Speigel's tweets).

Great post. I was kind of wondering the same thing. I also took a look back at this guy's posting history - he essentially went from LOVING his car to getting rid of it and then complaining about Tesla, with no posts in between. It was really kind of odd.

When I read this guy's post, I was thinking to myself, "this sure seems like a setup" - like someone going to a lot of effort to seem like a Tesla lover who had a HORRIBLE experience with Tesla, and only because of that horrible experience could no longer recommend Tesla (though it hurt them badly). It really seemed odd to me and I posted that. But what was more surprising was that there were a lot of people on that thread who agreed with the OP. I was shocked. In fact, 45 people gave positive reactions to the post. WTF?

Then, the most shocking thing happened as I read through Spiegel's posts. He had screen-shotted THAT very thread and tweeted it!!

Coincidence? I think not. Folks, there are enemy among us. These people are mentally ill. They care not about their families. They care not about socializing. They care not about money. They care not even about SEX. They have one mission in life and that is to see Tesla, and more importantly, Elon Musk, FAIL. They are organized and calculating. They are even patient.

So please keep that in mind as you post. I can tell you for sure that I have learned a great lesson. Whether the OP in this thread was genuine or not, these freaks are reading these posts and using every word to destroy Tesla and YOUR investment. So please post accordingly.
 
AFAIK, they don't.

More detail about the lawsuit, from the bottom up:
  • They're representing families of children who claim they were injured or killed working at the Kamoto mine.
  • Kamoto is owned and run by Katanga
  • Katanga is a subsidiary 75% owned by Glencore, a UK company that is generally seen as the source of "legit, respectable" cobalt in the Congo. Glencore also owns the huge Mutanda mine that had to shut down this year due to the cobalt glut
  • Glencore sells to Umicore, in Brussels, which makes cathode materials.
  • Umicore has many partners. The lawsuit claims "Apple, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, and Dell". It appears however that they just simply chose "big name" companies that use batteries that they felt they could link to Umicore. They also focus on cobalt, even though these mines are primarily copper mines, and cobalt is just a byproduct.
I've tried to find any evidence that Tesla has ever bought directly from Umicore. I cannot find any. Tesla's only direct connection to Umicore that I can find is that Umicore is a Tesla battery recycling partner. E.g. cobalt flows in just the opposite direction, from Tesla to Umicore. If anyone can find anything suggesting otherwise, let me know.

A huge customer of Umicore is LG Chem. E.g. who supplies EV battery packs for almost everyone but Tesla. Tesla will, some number of months for now, be connected to Tesla via GF3 when the battery pack line there starts up. Tesla has also probably purchased LG Chem cells at various points in time for energy products.

Concerning the claims of their clients. Here's Kamoto:

1077630.jpg


2l-Image-Kamoto-Mine.jpg


Kamoto-mine-flotation-cells.jpg


kamoto-mine-ef0b8304-9c98-4682-afa6-d243ec79ee1-resize-750.jpeg


10908065323_bdcfe89cac_b-1.jpg


Kamoto is not artisanal mining. Which, as a reminder, looks like this:

DdmsqHZV0AEfW5d.jpg


cobalt-mine.jpg


Kamoto is a professional mine using modern equipment. It seems extremely unlikely to me that they would in any way use child labour.

HOWEVER, there's been huge problems with illegal artisanal mining operations at Kamoto - people who sneak into their property and mine it without their consent. Last summer the military was sent in to try to shut them own after dozens of artisanal miners died illegally mining Kamoto's propery when they undermined a terrace, causing it to collapse:

At least 41 artisanal miners killed in Glencore’s Congo mine collapse

It seems highly likely to me that these children were being employed in such illegal mining operations on Kamoto's property. It seems highly unlikely that Kamoto / Katanga / Glencore was involved themselves.
I would also point out that sending the military in to "crack down" on artisanal miners can be more lethal and violent to children than simply allowing people to mine illegal. Camps get burned up and children burned in their homes in an effort to secure "ethical" minerals.

This is as big a problem with plain old copper as it is with cobalt, yet the media likes to highlight cobalt for some reason. There is plenty do unethical copper in the market, but no one get worked up about it.

Fundamentally the problem is not with the metals, but with a corrupt government and extreme poverty. Families are simply scavenging at risk in the mines and harassment from their own government because there are no better alternatives. The industrialized countries can wash their hands of unethical metals and righteously avoid them, but this actually does nothing to solve real problems that these poor families face.

Send in the troops: Congo raises the stakes on illegal mining
 
Threat to tesla's brand in the near term.
I just want to get your guys thoughts on elon musk's compensation package. As we may well hit 100 billion dollar market cap soon I can only imagine the headlines "elon musk get billion dollar pay day , while workers get paided low wages ......" .
I think every time Tesla hits the market cap goals for elons compensation package he should gift some of the shares to Tesla workers , this not only looks better but helps align them with the company goals as they have more invested interest in teslas success. otherwise i suspect increasing anger from political figures and activists in the media directed at elon, especially as he could be the richest person in america in just a few years time.

Most employees are shareholders... maybe they can ramp up that program... I have no idea if it is adequate..

If Elon gets big compensation, the share price is probably doing very well no shareholder will complain..
 
  • Like
Reactions: UncaNed and Lessmog
Threat to tesla's brand in the near term.
I just want to get your guys thoughts on elon musk's compensation package. As we may well hit 100 billion dollar market cap soon I can only imagine the headlines "elon musk get billion dollar pay day , while workers get paided low wages ......" .
I think every time Tesla hits the market cap goals for elons compensation package he should gift some of the shares to Tesla workers , this not only looks better but helps align them with the company goals as they have more invested interest in teslas success. otherwise i suspect increasing anger from political figures and activists in the media directed at elon, especially as he could be the richest person in america in just a few years time.

Hi Glen.

While you seem to be well meaning, I think what you are suggesting is not an acceptable proposal.

Tesla already pays hundreds of millions a year in stock compensation to employees and IIRC offers generous stock plans to employees. No other company with executives have high compensation bonuses etc have any brand damage like you suggest above. its a non issue, and if Elon continues to hit the milestones that will trigger his bonus, a LOT of the employees are going to be very happy with their stock holdings performance.
 
I would also point out that sending the military in to "crack down" on artisanal miners can be more lethal and violent to children than simply allowing people to mine illegal. Camps get burned up and children burned in their homes in an effort to secure "ethical" minerals.

This is as big a problem with plain old copper as it is with cobalt, yet the media likes to highlight cobalt for some reason. There is plenty do unethical copper in the market, but no one get worked up about it.

Fundamentally the problem is not with the metals, but with a corrupt government and extreme poverty. Families are simply scavenging at risk in the mines and harassment from their own government because there are no better alternatives. The industrialized countries can wash their hands of unethical metals and righteously avoid them, but this actually does nothing to solve real problems that these poor families face.

Send in the troops: Congo raises the stakes on illegal mining
The problem is not limited to cobalt. Watch "Rotten" on Netflix. A lot of groceries we buy are sourced from the dirt poor farmers, who earn cents on dollars that retailers make. There's tons of injustice and violence at the source to control the flow of goods. There are words about justice and sustainability that do not translate to the situation on the ground. Those farmers making 2x of what they do would really help them out and raise the standard of living significantly, but it doesn't happen, the profits are absorbed higher in the chain. The problem is systemic.

MOD EDIT:
Interesting, and topical....but not this topic. So no more here - there surely is an appropriate location for its discussion.
 
This might be taken as bad short term news, but it is a good long term news.

I think this will only force Tesla to be more efficient sooner, which will make Tesla even a more fierce competitor.

I agree with this even though I support subsidizing cleaner transportation. Tesla is reducing the cost of EV's at a surprising rate and more people are getting first--hand exposure to cars like the Model 3 and finding out just how superior they are to their gas clunkers. Yes, even a BMW 3 series is a "clunker" relative to a Model 3.

Another positive of no subsidies is it will take the wind out of the sails of those who parrot that EV's only sell because the government subsidizes them. :cool:
 
It's getting crazy over here. I live in Amsterdam and the place is literally getting "swamped" with new Tesla's. My street alone has gotten a few more in the past week and December is just half way through. Even though tax benefits get a big cut starting jan 1st, I think the impact of so many new owners spreading the word is going to be huge for 2020
Then I literally suggest you keep a few very long hollow reeds with you at all times so if it's too deep to reach the bottom, use them to breath through until you get your footing so your head is above the Tesla level.
Dropped to $373 after market, or is Yahoo finance not working.

Update: Yes back to $382 now.

Best close since i've been in the stock and Tesla are in a much better position now. I forsee a big run over the next decade.
Up or Down?
 
What a day! The shorts just gave me a free upgrade to Tri-Motor with FSD!!! How? I bought 14 Jan 2022 300 SP calls on 11/25/19 after the SP dropped following the Cybertruck reveal. I used cash that I need for a real estate deal, so I was planning on selling by the end of the year, but I thought I would try to make $20k to pay for the Dual to Tri-Motor upgrade. Well, I just sold them for a $34k profit today, so the Shorts paid for my upgrade + FSD + my sales tax. The Tri-Motor cyber with FSD will now only cost me around $46k including taxes. Thank you Shorties!!! :D
 
For those risk takers and options traders here. The Jan 2021 leap calls are under a $1 for a strike of $690. If FC FSD arrives and Shanghai factory outputs good numbers by the end of next year I see no reason why the price can’t explode to at least 750 giving you a 60x return. The Tesla price is always somewhat of a mystery to me but a tripling in price with everything expected over the next year isn’t entirely unreasonable to me. Not a lot of risk for a lot of reward there.

Frankly I feel like if the right things happen there’s no reason it couldn’t explode far more than triple.

Not advice. Just an opinion.

From September

Im curious if people are still so sure these would expire worthless.
 
If you ever meet Anton in person, could you try that on him? I'm thinking he needs more than that but it can't hurt to try! ;)

It only works on horses because their have such thick skin. To a human it would be like massaging the back of the neck. All I remember is it really calmed a nervous horse under me that would be jumping all over the place like a gazelle. When it felt my finger nails it would just calm down. Not sure if any other jockey has ever done that. It's been 25 years since I rode. Funny how memories just pop into your head when you grow older. At 68 the most I can do is juggle while riding my unicycle just for exercise. Not as glamorous but still a lot of fun. On facebook I am Robert D'Amours for anyone who wants to check it out.
 
Yeah, that actually could be bad. With 5-8 weeks delivery estimate every 2 out of 3 orders would have to cancel to cause that effect, but with Tesla likely within few K of guidance and not being able to redirect output to EU...Maybe Canada...
358k total for the year could indeed cause overreaction. Good thing it didn't happen.

If Congress did extend the credits at some point, wouldn't Tesla just announce a price hike coinciding with the reintroduction of the credits? That would remove any incentive for people to cancel or postpone their orders.
 
Like earlier this year when the stock was diving down, eventually dipping just below $180.
Exactly. Unfortunately, I had my margin maxed out by then thinking that the good deals were happening long before that.;)
IDK how the hell people knew to wait for $180.

Btw, great summary of today by Papafox, a must read.
Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
 
From September

Im curious if people are still so sure these would expire worthless.

I bought a bunch of the Jan 2021 $690 calls for under a buck. Now they're going for $7.47 so clearly, people think there is some chance they won't expire worthless. I'm not selling mine just yet although there is a small chance they are at peak value. I didn't buy them to hold to expiration, just to make a nice profit since I suspected Tesla was in a bull phase and they would, at a minimum, increase in value in the near-term. Clearly it's working because they are up over 660%.