Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mokuzai]

Now my problem is what to do with them... I’m thinking to roll into Jan 2022’s which are 2.5x the price, but a lot more time value...

Any suggestions?

I picked up 10 of those contracts as well at $1.00. Ended up selling one contract today to cover the cost of all 10...still don't know what a good sell price is for the other 9 but at least I can't lose on it anymore.

 

[Krugerrand]

Come on, isn't this sort of thing what everyone does in their spare time during the winter?

Duh. I like to use such equations and other more complicated ones to figure out how to lose the 10lbs of holiday weight I’ve put on eating bonbons, without having to lift a finger or stop eating the bonbons. So far I’ve been unsuccessful, but you’ve given me a new idea.

 

[Rarity]

Don't assume Tesla needs a new factory to build Cybertruck. With the projected late-2021 product launch, its uncertain Tesla could even build a new USA factory in that timeline.

Instead, I look for spare capacity and another shift on the Fremont S/X line to do final assembly for Cybertruck. Yes, that means a 17" horiz. display for S/X by then, along with the Refreshed/Plaid Model S, and more 18650 cells from Panasonic/Japan (hint: they are the SAME Tesla chemistry that goes in 2170s).

Probably could use cheap, readily-constructed/purchased, generic factory/warehouse space for cybertruck. No need for special plumbing/materials handling for paint and beefy foundations for stamping.

Fremont seems to be overkill and too expensive for this. Maybe Roadster for Fremont?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The problem with pine trees I equate to my old artillery math formula dealing with tube drupe. While sounding sexist ~ it is an actual formula (cannot for the life of me remember it now ~ not even while I was in school). NOTE: when an artillery cannon is fired for long periods of time it heats up and will over time drupe. This affect must be calculated into hitting the correct target.

Lol, if your cannon is overheated from firing too often, you don't need a 'correction', you need a publicist.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

You got your 'facts' mixed up. Elon said that to Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval at the National Governors Association summer meeting on Sat, July 15, 2017 (there's video on Youtube if you'd like).

There were two parts to my "fact":
1) That Musk had said something to the effect that TSLA doesn't deserve such a high share price.
2) That he said it around the time it was trading near $380.

You have admitted that Musk said that on 7/15/17 so the only question was whether it was near the time it was trading around $380. And we can see that it was trading around $380 less than 12 days before he made the comment.

So why the claim that my facts are "mixed up"? It looks like my recollection was entirely accurate (by your own account of when Musk made the statement).

 

[Fred42]

Probably could use cheap, readily-constructed/purchased, generic factory/warehouse space for cybertruck. No need for special plumbing/materials handling for paint and beefy foundations for stamping.

Fremont seems to be overkill and too expensive for this. Maybe Roadster for Fremont?

The SS body doesn't need to be stamped, but I believe there are other parts to stamp.

 

[neezer]

Actually, the lack of an incentive is just a deeper moat. Product stands on its own. Elon has stated in the pass the tax break is sort of a crutch anyway. Additionally, uncertainty has been removed from buying decisions and in fact now that price increases are being introduced and competition is NOT materializing, buying decisions just got easier and should become apparent in Q1.

Fire Away!
“It’s the batteries stupid!”

I understand, but my point was about the big climb yesterday (Mon 12/16) apparently was mainly caused by a couple of newspieces, and 1 of which was this supposed likely subsidy extension.

 

[ggr]

Actually, that I can envy I tire of cavendishes.



Hire some shorts to hold the bag for you



I think a cosmic ray caused a soft error that flipped a couple bits in my natural language processing subsystem when I was writing that

Seriously, though, some of my code (heavily excerpted) for such a function I've written in the past, as proof:

def full_evaluate(p, force_run = False):
..hash = "".join(["%05g,"] * len(p))[:-1] % tuple(p.tolist())
...
..ret2 = evaluate(p, hash, run_params, force_run)
...
....return write_hash(hash, s, (ret0[1], ret1[1], ret2[1]), (ret0[2], ret1[2], r
et2[2]))

def evaluate(p, hash, run_params, force_run = False):
...
....if hash in hashes:
......log("Already run (%f)\n" % hashes[hash])
......return hashes[hash]
...

def write_hash(hash, value, score, penalty):
..global hashes
..if hash not in hashes:
....hashes[hash] = value
..fp = open("hashes.txt", "a")
..fp.write("%s:%0.7g%0.7g,%0.7g,%0.7g)%0.7g,%0.7g,%0.7g)\n" % (hash, value, score[0], score[1], score[2], penalty[0], penalty[1], penalty[2]))
..fp.close()
..return value

def load_hashes():
..global hashes
..hashes = {}
..fp = open("hashes.txt", "r")
..for line in fp.readlines():
....if line == "\n":
......continue
....match = re.match("^([^:]+)[^:]+)[^:]+)[^:]+)$", line)
....hashes[match.group(1)] = float(match.group(2))
..fp.close()

load_hashes()
ret = scipy.optimize.differential_evolution(full_evaluate, bounds, args=(), init
=init_list, strategy='rand1bin', seed=0, popsize=POPSIZE, mutation=(0,1.999), to
l=0, maxiter=30000, polish=True)

(I'm well aware that I'm rather typo prone - which is why this site's inability to edit old posts is kind of frustrating )

Back on topic: I'm quite frankly thrilled by the fact that the stock seems to be consolidating at this level. Right before the deliveries report, the start of GF3 deliveries, etc etc. $380 and no heavy profit taking? It's about bloody time

Mod:
1. The only reason @SW2Fiddler's post survived was that it was clearly a joke, but I'll remind others that we don't do spelling/grammar corrections in TMC.
2. We are NOT going to go into a tangent about Python code, simulated annealing, hill climbing (either sense), etc.
/Mod.

If you become a supporter of TMC, for $120/year you get all sorts of benefits (there are also lower levels), including being able to edit your own postings for 12 hours (or forever if they are the first post in a thread... wow, imagine starting new threads rather than just posting in this one...). Given the quality of your posts, I would be happy to kick in for a membership for you. If you or others would like to join me please start a conversation with me (do not post here) and I'll try to figure out how to do it.

 

[Joe F]

I expect that fairly soon side mirrors will not be installed on new Teslas. They will be replaced by views from rear facing cameras. All that's needed is regulatory approval. I also wouldn't be surprised if many current Tesla owners would then be allowed to remove their side view mirrors.

Can't replace older (at least not on my S) mirrors (right side) as that's where the wifi, cellular (and I believe) GPS antennas are. Would love to see it happen though, but would require a redesign.

 

[UncaNed]

Don't assume Tesla needs a new factory to build Cybertruck. With the projected late-2021 product launch, its uncertain Tesla could even build a new USA factory in that timeline.

Instead, I look for spare capacity and another shift on the Fremont S/X line to do final assembly for Cybertruck. Yes, that means a 17" horiz. display for S/X by then, along with the Refreshed/Plaid Model S, and more 18650 cells from Panasonic/Japan (hint: they are the SAME Tesla chemistry that goes in 2170s).

Telsa does not want to let capacity sit idle, as it does now at Fremont. Cybertruck needs no stamping, no body, no paint. Just bring pre-bent/welded hulls to final assembly. Cybertruck maximizes Fremont S/X line output ASAP, which I believe makes this plan tempting to Tesla's Board.

So possibly 50K Cybertrucks/year from 1 shift? Maybe slightly more with improving efficiencies. But I don't think this'll be the final answer. Consumers will demand more 21st Century high-tech trucks, and Tesla will find a new way to build them.

After SpaceX puts Tesla Cybertrucks on the Moon and Mars in the late-2020s, demand will literally skyrocket. Every future James T. Kirk now growing up in Riverside, Iowa will loose his mind if he can't have one. I'll look for a new mid-West factory to build that 2nd Gen pickup truck.

As for Semi, I lean toward Lathrop. Telsa plans a 'small production run' in 2020, likely meaning ~500ish semi-trucks for their logistics needs. So any tent'll do, right?

Once they have some real experience building and operating Semi, I think they'll spec out a new line. I do expect Cybertruck to be first to production, though, at Fremont.

Cheers!

Right. I was really thinking money to OUTFIT a factory. Cramming it in Fremont, or Sparcs or even to build out Brandenburg.

Ether way, the last time Tesla raised capital, the SP rose quite a bit, no?

 

[StealthP3D]

I understand, but my point was about the big climb yesterday (Mon 12/16) apparently was mainly caused by a couple of newspieces, and 1 of which was this supposed likely subsidy extension.

A number of us don't think yesterday's climb was primarily due to any news stories.

 

[Skryll]

A number of us don't think yesterday's climb was primarily due to any news stories.

Saudis ? Other divisions of tencent? Wallstreet sudden understanding of the potential of car+energy+robotaxi?

 

[kbM3]

Nice Hyperchange video.

Rahul brings up how even before full autonomy, there are great economic advantages in regional transport using Teslas.
He also points out how Cybertruck will be the cheapest method in history for transporting cargo up to its limits. Trains cheaper to move 10 tons, but nothing will compete on smaller 10k loads. Also how Tesla could build a trailer platform skateboard that others could customize for cargos, passengers...

 

[Curt Renz]

I understand, but my point was about the big climb yesterday (Mon 12/16) apparently was mainly caused by a couple of newspieces, and 1 of which was this supposed likely subsidy extension.

Actually, the tax credit extension had already been deemed unlikely. Then during the trading session yesterday, one of its senate sponsors revealed she had essentially given up hope due to Trump's opposition. Yet the Tesla share price was barely affected.

It's Tesla bears who cling to a thesis that consumers would only find Tesla cars desirable, if there is a tax credit. That's been proven fallacious this year as the Tesla tax credit has been steadily descending toward zero. The bears may become enlightened, if they would test drive Tesla cars.

Incentives are far less of a motivation to start shopping for a car, than the fact that an owner's current car has problems or excessive mileage. Those shoppers who find a Tesla to be their top choice would likely disregard the fact that tax credits have expired. Of course many car buyers do not have a large enough income tax bill to allow them to take full advantage of a tax credit.

 

[jbcarioca]

Not sure exactly what you are discussing but here in Scandinavia it's as easy to buy Tesla, any other US stock, as well as stock from many other foreign markets, as our own stocks are. Not sure if they can bee identified as owned directly by me or just by my brokerage. In either case it should be obvious to whoever needs to know, if anyone, that they are owned by someone from outside the US.

If the security was purchased from a brokerage not located in the US that is true. As much as 75% of all non-us-person (i.e. a person not subject to US income tax reporting) US securities purchases use various techniques both legal and non to make those purchases, That is why the actual percentage of foreign ownership of US securities cannot be precisely determined. I avoided discussion of FBAR etc because that becomes seriously OT as well as boringly technical.

 

[Nocturnal]

Nice Hyperchange video.

Rahul brings up how even before full autonomy, there are great economic advantages in regional transport using Teslas.
He also points out how Cybertruck will be the cheapest method in history for transporting cargo up to its limits. Trains cheaper to move 10 tons, but nothing will compete on smaller 10k loads. Also how Tesla could build a trailer platform skateboard that others could customize for cargos, passengers...

I've been yelling about this for a year or so now. Autonomous EVs are surely going to disrupt freight as cost per ton/mile would be maybe be 50% more vs train freight (2 weeks vs 2 days travel time) vs 3x or so now. I also believe FSD will stress domestic airlines as more people will opt for driving vs short-med haul flights. (no TSA, no rental car, greener, no airport delays, no 4oz liquid limit etc.)

 

[wipster]

View attachment 489316

Take me to your ladder, I'll see your leader later...

 

[Tslynk67]

I picked up 10 of those contracts as well at $1.00. Ended up selling one contract today to cover the cost of all 10...still don't know what a good sell price is for the other 9 but at least I can't lose on it anymore.

Indeed I thought of selling one to get back original investment, but then I wonder what's the point. Think we've still got some running on these calls yet and I'm really thinking to roll them to 2022 now...

 

[lklundin]

I expect that fairly soon side mirrors will not be installed on new Teslas. They will be replaced by views from rear facing cameras. All that's needed is regulatory approval. I also wouldn't be surprised if many current Tesla owners would then be allowed to remove their side view mirrors.

This week-end I took my Model 3 on a 2k km drive to Denmark and back ostensibly for a couple of social events, but really to verify that road-tripping in near-freezing temperatures is fine.

Anyway, at a combined Supercharger + Ionity charger site I talk to the driver of a Audi Etron, that was not fitted with (at least a passenger side) side mirror but instead had a small arm with a camera on it.

The driver confirmed that the car did not have side mirror(s) and that this was indeed a street legal car. I believed he said that this dropped the car's cd by 0.01.

This was late in the week-end (technically Monday at 01:30), he had some family members there too, so I am pretty sure he was there on his own time.

The plates did not seem to be temporary or otherwise special, so I have to assume that the car was approved for driving on public roads like that.

I guess Audi may have convinced the regulator to allow them to make a real-world demonstration that this is indeed safe before it is commonly approved, but I have to imagine we will be seeing a general approval soon in the EU.

 

[avoigt]

This week-end I took my Model 3 on a 2k km drive to Denmark and back ostensibly for a couple of social events, but really to verify that road-tripping in near-freezing temperatures is fine.

Anyway, at a combined Supercharger + Ionity charger site I talk to the driver of a Audi Etron, that was not fitted with (at least a passenger side) side mirror but instead had a small arm with a camera on it.

The driver confirmed that the car did not have side mirror(s) and that this was indeed a street legal car. I believed he said that this dropped the car's cd by 0.01.

This was late in the week-end (technically Monday at 01:30), he had some family members there too, so I am pretty sure he was there on his own time.

The plates did not seem to be temporary or otherwise special, so I have to assume that the car was approved for driving on public roads like that.

I guess Audi may have convinced the regulator to allow them to make a real-world demonstration that this is indeed safe before it is commonly approved, but I have to imagine we will be seeing a general approval soon in the EU.

I have seen quite some eTrons since inception with the cameras as a substitute for side mirrors so it’s nothing unusal and legal.

However sitting in one I simply could not get used to look in the door where the screen is to see to the back.

That what people told about the Model 3 screen applied to the eTron. I don’t believe it will succeed but time will tell.