Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Nor do I. Thus all my mumerous old suits are indeed 'empty suits'

I might be done with suit's as well.
I have a month off and am thinking I might have flown my last flight.

8 months early retirement sounds pretty good.

 

[samppa]

The stealer in my area has more hungry shark salesmen than that.
Never,ever,ever,never will I or any of my family subject our self's to the torture that the old dinosaur way of buying a car used to be.

This. I'd like to reserve the coming Seat Mii Electric to replace our 2nd car, but going to a car dealer to get that paperwork is just soo much pain..

 

[Beltsbear]

The article a while ago about how Tesla was wreaking havoc in the used luxury car market (because so many people are trading in their "luxury" German cars to get a Tesla, flooding the market with used "luxury" cars) noted that the luxury buyer today is looking for technology (as opposed to, I guess, quiet ride and leather trim).

If that was the case, it would explain why iPace/eTron are struggling -- they're pricing for old luxury but they're not actually selling new luxury. I would expect the EQC to be in a similar situation. So the Kia has just as much chance to be a luxury SUV as the German models, and it's not inconceivable that the Mach E will eat them alive -- if its big screen and OTA updates get all the kinks ironed out before production. (Which unfortunately is by no means a given, as we're seeing with the VW software news.)

the Mach - e will be the first non compliance car that sells out hard. While everything in the specifications is worse then Tesla, they don’t do anything horribly wrong. They copy the Tesla 2012 formula down to the frunk and nosecone. They get close to the Tesla style tech luxury as well. It’s purpose built as electric.

I am not sure if any other big auto attempt in the next two years will be similar except possibly the VW offerings. Tesla still has almost all of 2020 alone in the market as I expect ford to not make too many Mach-e in 2020.

 

[Beltsbear]

Yep. Elon estimated 100,000 Semis/year, which would generate $16.5B/Y (assuming 50/50 split of 300/500 mile range versions), not including revenue from FSD, Megachargers, etc. Tesla Semi aims to manufacture 100,000 electric trucks per year, say Elon Musk - Electrek

And IMO 100K is clearly a lowball estimate since Tesla Semi's economics should crush diesel.

That’s a lot of batteries. Enough for a million cars.

 

[Krugerrand]

the Mach - e will be the first non compliance car that sells out hard. While everything in the specifications is worse then Tesla, they don’t do anything horribly wrong. They copy the Tesla 2012 formula down to the frunk and nosecone. They get close to the Tesla style tech luxury as well. It’s purpose built as electric.

I am not sure if any other big auto attempt in the next two years will be similar except possibly the VW offerings. Tesla still has almost all of 2020 alone in the market as I expect ford to not make too many Mach-e in 2020.

Meh.

I’ll take the other side of that bet. It’ll sell for a few months and then peter out like all the rest and in the end will be considered a flop.

 

[ammulder]

I’ll take the other side of that bet. It’ll sell for a few months and then peter out like all the rest and in the end will be considered a flop.

I'm not so sure -- but I think for it to be a success, they have to nail the software, and the quoted range has to turn into EPA Miles not Taycan Miles.

 

[Krugerrand]

Bethany & Co. - So, y’all thought you could kill Tesla by cutting them off from the capital markets, eh? And now the best you can do is cross your fingers and hope you can slow them down enough to get out of the way.

Something I learned a long, long time ago in a far, far away galaxy; always make sure you know exactly who you are dealing with before taking them on. Not everyone is like you or created equally, despite what we might like to believe. The force is not with you, Bethany & Co.

Yes, I’m awake now but only to grab a bite to eat, bat around some pillow of fabric filled with catnip, then it’s back to my box that makes my butt look big.

 

[The Accountant]

Where is the price going next? I don't know, but here's a baseless conjecture.

Tesla tends to trade in a wide interval for several years before breaking into the next interval.

First, $20 to $36.
Second, $190 to $270
Third, $270 to $370
Fourth, $370 to ???

There was a transition from first interval to second. Likewise from the third to fourth, we've had a dal segno to $180 and back. Now we appear to be headed into the fourth interval.

So let's suppose that a certain interval will prevail over the next several years. What would be that range. Here's my totally baseless guess.

Fourth, $370 to $520.

I think there is a tremendous amount of attention on the $420, but that is too close to $370 to hold as an upper limit. We may get hung up at $420 for a while, but the real hype train needs much more range to roam. $470 could be a upper limit, but on a relative scale the range from $370 to $470 is really not that compelling. Musk's award is linked to a market cap of $100B or about $554/sh. So that will be a major battle with shorts. So I think $570 is too high for the fourth interval. So spitting the difference $520 seems about right and has some symbolic resonance with $420.

So there you go. Look for Tesla to be range bound between $370 and $520 for several years. The exciting part is that we could see the high $520 marked very quickly. Perhaps within 6 months.

Enjoy the ride!

Nice post - thanks for sharing your thinking. The ranges for the first 3 legs you show were established while the company was posting financial loses and negative cash flow (as any start-up would). Starting in 2020, we will see consistent increases in annual profits and free cash flow. Look what has happened to Amazon stock once they showed they could be profitable:

AMZN stock quickly went from a SP of $587 to $1,451 in 2 years.
Many of our members on the "Near-future quarterly financial projections" thread are projecting fully diluted GAAP EPS above $12 for next year. If TSLA shows a double-digit EPS for 2020, the stock moves to $800 - $1,000 in my opinion.
Not financial advice but I think in 2020 we move out of the tight trading ranges and move steadily up as each quarter continues to validate the investment thesis.

 

[Paracelsus]

Mark Jacobson on LinkedIn discussing how going 100% Green Renewable Energy will pay for itself in 7 years

Here is the Stanford study supporting this: http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/143WWSCountries.pdf

And here is his link to the US plan details recommended (effectively the Green New Deal): http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/143Country/19-WWS-UnitedStates.pdf

And a good summary article:
"A Stanford University professor whose research helped underpin the U.S. Democrats’ Green New Deal says phasing out fossil fuels and running the entire world on clean energy would pay for itself in under seven years.

It would cost $73 trillion to revamp power grids, transportation, manufacturing and other systems to run on wind, solar and hydro power, including enough storage capacity to keep the lights on overnight, Mark Jacobson said in a study published Friday in the journal One Earth. But that would be offset by annual savings of almost $11 trillion, the report found.

“There’s really no downside to making this transition,” said Jacobson, who wrote the study with several other researchers. “Most people are afraid it will be too expensive. Hopefully this will allay some of those fears.”

Some of Jacobson’s past findings have been questioned, notably a 2017 journal article that criticized his methodology on measuring the cost of phasing out fossil fuels.

The biggest challenge of ditching fossil fuels may not be economic. Even some clean-power advocates acknowledge technology isn’t available yet to run power grids entirely on renewables without jeopardizing reliability.

The report published Friday looked at 143 countries that generate more than 99% of the world’s greenhouse emissions. The savings would come from not extracting fossil fuels, using higher-efficiency systems and other benefits of shifting entirely to electricity. It follows a paper Jacobson published in 2015 laying out a state-by-state plan for the U.S. to convert to 100% renewables."
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[StealthP3D]

Agree on most everything except---no way is $520 the upper limit for several years, maybe one year.

Do you really think TSLA could go an entire year without rising 28% from where it is right now? I don't care if you're bullish or bearish, normal volatility alone would argue against that.

Tesla hasn't even released Q4 2019 results yet!

 

[2virgule5]

Yeah, except that a Model 3 with a 100 KWh pack that weighs the same as the old 75 KWh pack would have 432 miles range (33% more than the original rating of 325 miles).

Cheers!

Yeah, assuming same efficiency & motors... Hard to believe that they could make such a jump in gravimetric energy density on the cell alone. On the other hand that's the type of breakthrough that would explain future products incredible specs for the price (Semi, CyberT, Roadster 2.0). Battery day cannot come soon enough

 

[Prunesquallor]

I might be done with suit's as well.
I have a month off and am thinking I might have flown my last flight.

8 months early retirement sounds pretty good.

Congrats! First class for you from now on! Hopefully to one of @Krugerrand ’s islands.

 

[EinSV]

Nice post - thanks for sharing your thinking. The ranges for the first 3 legs you show were established while the company was posting financial loses and negative cash flow (as any start-up would). Starting in 2020, we will see consistent increases in annual profits and free cash flow. Look what has happened to Amazon stock once they showed they could be profitable:
View attachment 490999

AMZN stock quickly went from a SP of $587 to $1,451 in 2 years.
Many of our members on the "Near-future quarterly financial projections" thread are projecting fully diluted GAAP EPS above $12 for next year. If TSLA shows a double-digit EPS for 2020, the stock moves to $800 - $1,000 in my opinion.
Not financial advice but I think in 2020 we move out of the tight trading ranges and move steadily up as each quarter continues to validate the investment thesis.

2020 should be an amazing year but one caution on putting too much emphasis on EPS is that Elon has made it clear that earnings are third on the priority list after (1) growth (2) cash flow. For whatever reason the market obsesses over earnings but since Tesla puts growth first, cash flow second and earnings third, earnings have a higher risk of falling short of expectations than either growth or cash flow IMO.

 

[Prunesquallor]

the Mach - e will be the first non compliance car that sells out hard. While everything in the specifications is worse then Tesla, they don’t do anything horribly wrong. They copy the Tesla 2012 formula down to the frunk and nosecone. They get close to the Tesla style tech luxury as well. It’s purpose built as electric.

I am not sure if any other big auto attempt in the next two years will be similar except possibly the VW offerings. Tesla still has almost all of 2020 alone in the market as I expect ford to not make too many Mach-e in 2020.

And I believe I read that most of the first year’s production is going to the EU.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The article a while ago about how Tesla was wreaking havoc in the used luxury car market (because so many people are trading in their "luxury" German cars to get a Tesla, flooding the market with used "luxury" cars) noted that the luxury buyer today is looking for technology (as opposed to, I guess, quiet ride and leather trim).

If that was the case, it would explain why iPace/eTron are struggling -- they're pricing for old luxury but they're not actually selling new luxury. I would expect the EQC to be in a similar situation. So the Kia has just as much chance to be a luxury SUV as the German models, and it's not inconceivable that the Mach E will eat them alive -- if its big screen and OTA updates get all the kinks ironed out before production. (Which unfortunately is by no means a given, as we're seeing with the VW software news.)

Luxury ICE = diamond studded BlackBerry

 

[Words of HABIT]

You have no idea the number of dead chicken's I had to throw over my LEFT shoulder in order to see the future.

Next week is gunna be glorious.

Just watch.

I'm new here. How many goods is a glorious?

 

[InDaClub]

Supercar maker McLaren to skip electric vehicles. Here's why — and what it will build instead.

Brands from Ford to Porsche are all-in on electric vehicles, but don’t expect a battery-powered model from exotic sports car maker McLaren Automotive anytime soon.

“Technology doesn’t allow for a great EV sports car today, largely because of the weight of batteries,” CEO Mike Flewitt said recently over breakfast in Detroit.

 

[Fact Checking]

Very interesting development, new Fremont made Model 3 orders in China have now slipped to April, i.e. Q2:

特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

 

[Skryll]

And I believe I read that most of the first year’s production is going to the EU.

Which makes it - a compliance car.
Other case in point is the anti selling to existing mustang owners by calling it a mustang despite drastically different formfactor.

 

[Fact Checking]

FSD on highways is getting better - still on a HW2 computing basis:

Pure Tesla on Twitter

​

The trip even passed a toll booth.