I don't think we will have ranges lasting as long in the next few years. Previously, step changes in revenue were dependent on the launch of 1 product which would then spend a couple of years optimising returns and was limited to production from one factory.Where is the price going next? I don't know, but here's a baseless conjecture.
Tesla tends to trade in a wide interval for several years before breaking into the next interval.
First, $20 to $36.
Second, $190 to $270
Third, $270 to $370
Fourth, $370 to ???
There was a transition from first interval to second. Likewise from the third to fourth, we've had a dal segno to $180 and back. Now we appear to be headed into the fourth interval.
So let's suppose that a certain interval will prevail over the next several years. What would be that range. Here's my totally baseless guess.
Fourth, $370 to $520.
I think there is a tremendous amount of attention on the $420, but that is too close to $370 to hold as an upper limit. We may get hung up at $420 for a while, but the real hype train needs much more range to roam. $470 could be a upper limit, but on a relative scale the range from $370 to $470 is really not that compelling. Musk's award is linked to a market cap of $100B or about $554/sh. So that will be a major battle with shorts. So I think $570 is too high for the fourth interval. So spitting the difference $520 seems about right and has some symbolic resonance with $420.
So there you go. Look for Tesla to be range bound between $370 and $520 for several years. The exciting part is that we could see the high $520 marked very quickly. Perhaps within 6 months.
Enjoy the ride!
Over the next few years we have back to back launches of Y, CT, Semi and an expected ramp in energy. This is also being paralleled via multiple factories.
We should generally see revenues continuously drive higher while all these products and factories are ramping and the stock price should follow (with plenty of noise along the way)