Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NakedLong]

With January 1st being a holiday, does anyone think Tesla will still be able to get the production and delivery numbers released by Friday, Jan. 3rd?

Last year it was Jan 2, so I expect the same or Jan 3.

 

[hobbes]

So I did schedule a two year service for my Model 3. When the estimate came back it included the HW3 upgrade! Score! So after January 8 I'm going to be very interested in updates that make FSD real.

My Model S is HW2.5/MCU1 so I don't think they've yet figured out the upgrade path.

Looks like there is hope for your S! green on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

Tesla should offer the one millionth Tesla car produced to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin.

Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 Presidential debate with Barack Obama

"But don’t forget, you put $90 billion, like 50 years’ worth of breaks(to Oil and Gas), into—into solar and wind, to Solyndra and Fisker and Tesla and Ener1. I mean, I had a friend who said you don’t just pick the winners and losers, you pick the losers, all right? So this—this is not—this is not the kind of policy you want to have if you want to get America energy secure."

Gov Sarah Palin in 2013

"This losing tax-subsidized venture joins other past losers like the Obama-subsidized Volt that gets 40 miles per battery charge, or like the Obama-subsidized Tesla that turns into a “brick” when the battery completely discharges and then costs $40,000 to repair."

First $70k gets a fully loaded Model Y Performance.

 

[Mike Smith]

Seeing TSLA in the four hundreds reminds me of The Lord of the Rings when Gandalf the Grey becomes Gandalf the White. TSLA has leveled up and it's a beautiful thing.

 

[Freder Reeve]

How about a reality show starring TSLA longs and TSLAQ members in the same house while the stock price streams? We can call it Volatility TV. TSLAQ would steal all the tin foil to stop Elon's mind control rays and hilarity would ensue.

Joke's on them (again) since tin-foil hats would only increase the effectiveness of said rays. 2005 study at MIT determined that certain frequencies which are reserved for government use are actually amplified by the tinfoil hats.
https://web.archive.org/web/20100708230258/http://people.csail.mit.edu/rahimi/helmet/

 

[ammulder]

just wondering, what does everyone consider a "luxury" SUV to be in the electric era?

The article a while ago about how Tesla was wreaking havoc in the used luxury car market (because so many people are trading in their "luxury" German cars to get a Tesla, flooding the market with used "luxury" cars) noted that the luxury buyer today is looking for technology (as opposed to, I guess, quiet ride and leather trim).

If that was the case, it would explain why iPace/eTron are struggling -- they're pricing for old luxury but they're not actually selling new luxury. I would expect the EQC to be in a similar situation. So the Kia has just as much chance to be a luxury SUV as the German models, and it's not inconceivable that the Mach E will eat them alive -- if its big screen and OTA updates get all the kinks ironed out before production. (Which unfortunately is by no means a given, as we're seeing with the VW software news.)

 

[Hock1]

Where is the price going next? I don't know, but here's a baseless conjecture.

Tesla tends to trade in a wide interval for several years before breaking into the next interval.

First, $20 to $36.
Second, $190 to $270
Third, $270 to $370
Fourth, $370 to ???

There was a transition from first interval to second. Likewise from the third to fourth, we've had a dal segno to $180 and back. Now we appear to be headed into the fourth interval.

So let's suppose that a certain interval will prevail over the next several years. What would be that range. Here's my totally baseless guess.

Fourth, $370 to $520.

I think there is a tremendous amount of attention on the $420, but that is too close to $370 to hold as an upper limit. We may get hung up at $420 for a while, but the real hype train needs much more range to roam. $470 could be a upper limit, but on a relative scale the range from $370 to $470 is really not that compelling. Musk's award is linked to a market cap of $100B or about $554/sh. So that will be a major battle with shorts. So I think $570 is too high for the fourth interval. So spitting the difference $520 seems about right and has some symbolic resonance with $420.

So there you go. Look for Tesla to be range bound between $370 and $520 for several years. The exciting part is that we could see the high $520 marked very quickly. Perhaps within 6 months.

Enjoy the ride!

Agree on most everything except---no way is $520 the upper limit for several years, maybe one year.

 

[davepsilon]

just wondering, what does everyone consider a "luxury" SUV to be in the electric era?

The below article details the EQC as going to cost $67,900 (whenever it eventually gets released in US), and notes it has 220 miles EPA range. It then mentions the Kia Niro is $38,000 and has a range of 239 miles, but states "The Niro is not a luxury vehicle though. The EQC is a luxury SUV, hence the greater cost."

Now I know people will yabba on about "premium interior" etc as defining a luxury SUV, but surely in the EV era where range is so different across various models, surely one would expect a "luxury" EV to be the one with MORE range than the "not a luxury vehicle" at $30k less - right?

(note there is no mention of the model Y in the article - which has far superior range at 300 miles starting at $48k)

Mercedes-Benz EQC 400 To Start At $67,900 | CleanTechnica

Luxury EV range I guess I would think about like luxury ICE engine power. Not every luxury car has a monster engine but you can't have a substandard one for the class.

 

[ammulder]

But the 90 g/km emissions limits only apply in Europe - no reason for Mercedes to cut back on U.S. sales.

If they can only make so many (*cough* battery supply *cough*) and they're already at best borderline on profitability (as most first-time EV models seem to be) and every one they sell in Europe saves them thousands of €€€ of fines, there's some decent motivation to sell them all there instead of shipping any overseas. Especially if they don't have any confidence they'll actually sell well in the US.

(I'm assuming they're facing some pretty massive fines if they're talking about cutting the most profitable AMG models by 75% just to lower their fleet emissions... and I think I remember seeing that the max fines were on the order of 5000-8000€ per car?)

 

[lklundin]

IMO the high share price has been caused by Superchargers in Kazakhstan and Iceland.....
We need another Supercharger in Iceland to get to $420.

What kind of plugs do the Iceland and Kazakhstan Superchargers have?

For Central Asia the question is relevant for the first Supercharger-powered(*) roadtrip from Europe to China, since those two regions have mutually incompatible Supercharger plugs.

(*) The Munich Tesla Service Center has an original Roadster on display that appears to have done an around-the-world drive, so I have to imagine that the first Tesla already has driven between Europe and East Asia (if not China).

 

[jerry33]

From Forbes: Tesla's Semi Truck Could Bring In $2 Billion In Revenues By 2025.

Tesla’s Semi Truck Could Bring In $2 Billion In Revenues By 2025

That sounds really low. I think they forgot one or two zeros.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Just a direct pickup at a dock in Amsterdam.

I've been wondering how the heck they were able to deliver literal boatloads of Model 3's in a couple of days' time.
Um, now I'm developing a craving for appelgebak met slagroom.

The brain sucker!

Love that film, so over-the-top

Quite the original turn of phrase too.

The article a while ago about how Tesla was wreaking havoc in the used luxury car market (because so many people are trading in their "luxury" German cars to get a Tesla, flooding the market with used "luxury" cars) noted that the luxury buyer today is looking for technology (as opposed to, I guess, quiet ride and leather trim).

If that was the case, it would explain why iPace/eTron are struggling -- they're pricing for old luxury but they're not actually selling new luxury. I would expect the EQC to be in a similar situation. So the Kia has just as much chance to be a luxury SUV as the German models, and it's not inconceivable that the Mach E will eat them alive -- if its big screen and OTA updates get all the kinks ironed out before production. (Which unfortunately is by no means a given, as we're seeing with the VW software news.)

The e-Tron isn't doing so badly in some European countries:

registraties bijgewerkt t/m 20 december 2019
totaal: 22.436
1 Tesla Model 3 7.428
2 Audi E-tron 664
3 Hyundai Kona 551
4 Kia Niro 547
5 Renault Captur 520
6 Toyota Aygo 510
7 Renault Clio 490
8 Toyota Yaris 414
9 Nissan Leaf 409
10 Hyundai i10 394
11 Volkswagen Golf 391
12 Renault Zoe 365
...
29 Tesla Model S 153
...
39 Tesla Model X 105
...
Source Personenauto Kentekenregistraties
(yes, I just love to bring up the Netherlands right now)

It's that crucial bit slimmer than the X, can be had for less, the range handicap isn't so relevant in smaller European countries, and there just are many brand loyalists who will wait for "their" manufacturer to come up with a practical EV.

If Tesla adds a luxe interior option to the Model Y sometime down the line, I wager many of them would consider switching.

 

[LJS22]

That sounds really low. I think they forgot one or two zeros.

Likely the trucking market will be big for them. Despite electric trucking being in its infancy the cost savings per mile and kickbacks these companies will get for going to 0 emissions will be huge!
With that expect the media to run off on some quotes of truck drivers who say they hate driving them, the first year will likely be filled with FUD. However, I expect that sentiment to change after that. This has the potential to be the ultimate nail in the coffin of diesel (not saying it ends right then and there but investment money likely goes electric once Tesla proves capable)

 

[Singuy]

One thing I've learned repeatedly is patterns repeat, but only until they don't. It's not wise to expect a stock's share price to behave in a predictable way just because it has established three somewhat well-defined trading ranges previously.

Tesla is morphing into a different company in many distinct ways right before our eyes and will likely have a different share price pattern than it did under it's previous self:

1) Tesla is moving out of the establishment phase where they have been dependent upon regular infusions of cash to develop their lower volume vehicles and get them into production and changing into a self-sustaining company, able to stand on their own, where the only reason they might raise more capital is to be able to expand more rapidly than their profits would otherwise allow.

2) They are moving from a low volume niche manufacturer into a high volume, mainstream manufacturer. In 2020 they will have two high volume models (3 and Y) and Plaid versions of S (and X?) and over the next two years will be rolling out the Tesla semi, the Cybertruck and the Roadster. This is a departure from one new low volume car every 2 years.

3) While they have built out their international operations over several years, it is only now that they are truly becoming a well-distributed manufacturer with production facilities worldwide and a nice spread of sales that are not heavily over-weighted to one market.

4) They have announced 2020 as the year they will roll-out their solar roof in a big way. This should mean significant revenues from a source other than autos.

5) It sure looks like they are making the transition to making their own batteries.

As JustMe pointed out, Tesla is now growing exponentially. This is going to affect the way the stock trades. TSLA could blow right through that theoretical trading range of $370-$520 that you expect based on past behavior. Without a better reason than "history repeats itself", I would expect it to do something different. Wildly different. This is one of the most, if not the most, dynamic companies on planet earth! I expect something better than for it to trade in a $150 range for "several years". $520 is only 28% above the current price, a price that I consider somewhat undervalued right now! If I thought we would be rangebound "for the next several years" I wouldn't even be in this stock.

Please tell us you're just pulling our legs. That you really don't believe that.

From my past experience, range range trading is just wallstreet waiting for execution of said company and the competition. If we look at how Tesla traded, extrapolation of potential profits if execution went perfectly were priced in. Then as real execution had hiccups, range trading started. For years Tesla'S execution was sometimes below and sometimes above wallstreet expectations. Most of time, Tesla lagged behind their road map timeline until recently. Giga 3 was executed perfectly, model Y seems to be executing ahead of schedule, and the model 3 is proving to be profitable with lower operational cost ever quarter as promised. Then couple this with the competition failing to execute with Porsche being the biggest showcase of legacy's inability to compete.


When a company relentlessly execute at or beyond expectations while the competition failed to execute, there will be no range trading.

Amd had two years of range trading until it didn't all due to relentless execution while the competition failed to execute.

 

[LJS22]

I haven’t been around Tesla delivery centers during this mad rush ending, but pictures like this one shock me.
Sean M Mitchell on Twitter

they have an f’ing check in sign to pick up a vehicle like they are selling iPhones. This is the stuff Tesla’s official social media account should be posting. As a fan, investor, or anyone that likes tech this is one of the coolest things I’ve seen in the automotive industry. If you run any other auto company things like this should scare you.

 

[HG Wells]

I haven’t been around Tesla delivery centers during this mad rush ending, but pictures like this one shock me.
Sean M Mitchell on Twitter
View attachment 490977
they have an f’ing check in sign to pick up a vehicle like they are selling iPhones. This is the stuff Tesla’s official social media account should be posting. As a fan, investor, or anyone that likes tech this is one of the coolest things I’ve seen in the automotive industry. If you run any other auto company things like this should scare you.

That's nothing.
The waiting room at my GMC dealer always has a bigger crowd than that and it's just for oil changes !

 

[winfield100]

The show would collapse as soon as the TSLAQ members started learning about the Tesla cars in the household and how nicely they drove. They would turn instantly into TSLA longs and the whole premise of the show would be destroyed. Of course, the producer s would go bankrupt.

“Springtime, for (markbs, Montana,etc,) in .......lshortesvillle”!,,,

 

[EinSV]

That sounds really low. I think they forgot one or two zeros.

Yep. Elon estimated 100,000 Semis/year, which would generate $16.5B/Y (assuming 50/50 split of 300/500 mile range versions), not including revenue from FSD, Megachargers, etc. Tesla Semi aims to manufacture 100,000 electric trucks per year, say Elon Musk - Electrek

And IMO 100K is clearly a lowball estimate since Tesla Semi's economics should crush diesel.

 

[Unpilot]

That's nothing.
The waiting room at my GMC dealer always has a bigger crowd than that and it's just for oil changes !

The stealer in my area has more hungry shark salesmen than that.
Never,ever,ever,never will I or any of my family subject our self's to the torture that the old dinosaur way of buying a car used to be.

 

[jbcarioca]

I, sir, do not wear a suit

Nor do I. Thus all my mumerous old suits are indeed 'empty suits'