Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Compton]

I understand they can't invoice AP also, so every car is less €5000 in revenue, until problem is resolved. But can somebody confirm if it is correct information?

No one can say for certain but verygreen thinks so and Daerik has made a decent case that EU M3s contain the new chip.

 

[winfield100]

A bit OT
volume of 18650 = 9mm x 9mm x 65mm (exterior) = 5,265 mm3
volume of 2170 = 10.5mm x 10.5mm x 70mm (exterior) = 7,717 mm3

If you watch the manufacture of a cylindrical vs prismatic Li battery, they are __both__ wound jelly rolls, a sheet with "goo" on 1 side.
the cylinder can be inserted into a cylinder, and capped
the prismatic is wrapped as an oval, then "smooshed" / "flattened" in a press, __hopefully_ without damaging the very this jelly roll then then smoooshed jelly roll is crammed into a rectangular prismatic case, with the voids(unused space) and such
just at an uneducated glance, the cylindrical looks more efficient, denser, less prone to rejects (you smoooshed this run just a bit too much)

(could this be a reason for a Bolts having battery pack, failures since I recall they use Prismatics and failures were low voltage of some modules My Chevy Bolt Battery Died Twice At Under 12,000 Miles: Here's Why

how to make a prismatic battery jelly roll

prismatic smoooshed jellyroll

Tesla cylindrical battery

prismatic BMW smooshed

 

[EVNow]

I know it only a word, but to economics students an *increase* in demand requires that the demand curve move. Your comment gets a red line through the second last word from the economics teacher.

To quote the wiki “It is important to distinguish between movement along a demand curve, and a shift in a demand curve”.

We are not talking about shift in demand curve, just shift in demand due to price changes. Two different things. Not sure why you are confusing the two.

ps : Are you an economics teacher ?

BTW, Opens down $4 ...

 

[Fact Checking]

Perfectly reasonable. Your needs are outside the realm of what Tesla or any other EV on the market right now can address. Nothing wrong with that. Hence your V6 pickup is not in competition with Tesla.

Dan

Exactly. There's three major filters:

• Size (form factor).
• Price/affordability.
• Serviceability.

If a consumer cannot afford $90k for a Model X, or needs a pickup truck, then Tesla is not competing for his purchase. Or if the nearest Service Center is over 10-20 miles away, it can be rational to not even consider a Tesla.

Price is also significant: if a Tesla doesn't offer enough value to the owner that is worth $40k+, picking a cheaper yet adequate ICE car in the $15k-$25k price range is entirely rational and reasonable.

There's plenty of minor filters as well, for more specialized usecases, which would prevent you from buying a Tesla:

• Extreme range: if your job or hobby requires 500 mile trips to nowhere, a big ICE car is hard to beat.
• Apartment use with no home charging, no workplace charging and no Supercharger nearby.
• Frequent trips to unsafe areas where you don't want to stand out with a luxury car - even if you could afford it.
• You are working at Volkswagen headquarters.
• etc.

@gringotuanis's usecase appears to be mainly work-SUVs or pickups - which Tesla isn't offering yet. It's entirely reasonable to not be in the market of $40k+ sedans - in fact the majority of car buyers is in that group.

 

[humbaba]

Personally as a non EV lover (thiuhf I own stock and like the concept of Tesla.) I find it hard to justify purchase of a Tesla when I can get a brand new full size 4x4 truck for less which can tow 10,000 lbs. Or a completely tricked out larger sedan like a Nissan Maxima. A compelling electric drivetrain versus a nice V6 that I can fill up in 3 minutes makes a difference. Plus, I would prefer something larger than m3. I like m3 but to compete effectively it needs to be $35k or even more like $30k for such a small car. This is just my opinion as a non die hard.

I get what you are saying except for one thing: you say the M3 is "such a small car." I'm not exactly a small guy, and... but that horse has already been beaten to death here. So I guess what I'm asking is what other car are you comparing it to in order to make the claim that it is small. You mention the Nissan Maxima which is hardly a small car.

wheelbase: 109.3 vs 113.2
length: 192.8 vs 184.8
width: 73.2 vs 72.8
passenger space: 98.6 vs 97
cargo space: 14.3 vs 15

You figure out which one is which, but those are fairly close in size and its hard to spin either one as "such a small car" relative to the other. Let's put it another way: the Nissan Versa seems adequately described as "such a small car" and its measurements are appreciably less spacious than either the Nissan Maxima or the M3.

Please note: you say an EV doesn't suit you and that is just fine -- no skin off of my back. But dismissing it as "such a small car" just makes you sound like you don't know what you are talking about.

 

[mongo]

A bit OT
volume of 18650 = 9mm x 9mm x 65mm (exterior) = 5,265 mm3
volume of 2170 = 10.5mm x 10.5mm x 70mm (exterior) = 7,717 mm3

If you watch the manufacture of a cylindrical vs prismatic Li battery, they are __both__ wound jelly rolls, a sheet with "goo" on 1 side.
the cylinder can be inserted into a cylinder, and capped
the prismatic is wrapped as an oval, then "smooshed" / "flattened" in a press, __hopefully_ without damaging the very this jelly roll then then smoooshed jelly roll is crammed into a rectangular prismatic case, with the voids(unused space) and such
just at an uneducated glance, the cylindrical looks more efficient, denser, less prone to rejects (you smoooshed this run just a bit too much)

(could this be a reason for a Bolts having battery pack, failures since I recall they use Prismatics and failures were low voltage of some modules My Chevy Bolt Battery Died Twice At Under 12,000 Miles: Here's Why

how to make a prismatic battery jelly roll

prismatic smoooshed jellyroll
View attachment 375158


Tesla cylindrical battery
View attachment 375159

prismatic BMW smooshed

Would you like some Pi with that?

BIG EDIT! thanks to @scaesare

18650 -> 18 mm diameter x 65 mm long, 16 cm^3

2170 -> 21 mm diameter x 70 mm long, 24 cm^3

601380 (60138) - > 60 mm diameter x 138 mm long, 390 cm^3

So 1/5 the energy and 16x the volume = 1/80 the volumetric energy density?

 

[DFibRL8R]

That really isn't true. Many ICE cars have remote start and control of the climate controls via an app. (At least here in the US.)

Remote start (with line of site with the key fob) is old tech but the climate feature is still a rare feature, requiring connectivity that most cars don't have. This has been a standard feature on Tesla since they first released the app in 2013. They were really the first movers on this and have steadily improved the utility of the app and connectivity over the past six years. Most cars can't remote start (or unlock, open the trunk, start/stop charging, heat/cool etc) when you are in another country like a Tesla can.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Remote start (with line of site with the key fob) is old tech but the climate feature is still a rare feature, requiring connectivity that most cars don't have. This has been a standard feature on Tesla since they first released the app in 2013. They were really the first movers on this and have steadily improved the utility of the app and connectivity over the past six years. Most cars can't remote start (or unlock, open the trunk, start/stop charging, heat/cool etc) when you are in another country like a Tesla can.

Another thing that only an EV can offer is the ability to preheat my car in a closed, cold garage so it is toasty when I get in. Do that in an ICE and you're looking at serious Carbon Monoxide poisoning.

Dan

 

[Fact Checking]

Another thing that only an EV can offer is the ability to preheat my car in a closed, cold garage so it is toasty when I get in. Do that in an ICE and you're looking at serious Carbon Monoxide poisoning.

Dan

Remote start/heating via the engine is also illegal in most of Europe, even in open parking spaces. (Due to the obvious fire risk.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Remote start/heating via the engine is also illegal in most of Europe, even in open parking spaces. (Due to the obvious fire risk.)

What is the fire risk, as it isn't obvious to me? (Maybe if you park over combustibles? But then you would know not to use, just like if you are parked in a closed garage.)

 

[elasalle]

Looks like we need the MY announcement to get out of this funk.

 

[winfield100]

Would you like some Pi with that?

V = pi times radius squared times heighth
3.14159 times 9x9 times 65 = ~16,532
3.14159 times 10.5x10.5 times 70 =~24,233
the 3.14159 drops out of the equations when doing ratios as it makes no difference
with or without Pi its roughly 1.46 (external dimensions)
however, don't know the InternalDimension ID
however, if you have Apple, Cherry, Strawberry, Chocolate Mousse Pie, i'm game
love my Tesla stock

 

[gene]

Personally as a non EV lover (thiuhf I own stock and like the concept of Tesla.) I find it hard to justify purchase of a Tesla when I can get a brand new full size 4x4 truck for less which can tow 10,000 lbs. Or a completely tricked out larger sedan like a Nissan Maxima. A compelling electric drivetrain versus a nice V6 that I can fill up in 3 minutes makes a difference. Plus, I would prefer something larger than m3. I like m3 but to compete effectively it needs to be $35k or even more like $30k for such a small car. This is just my opinion as a non die hard.

The pick-up truck or the Maxima might be what works for you, but for me I'd probably commit suicide if I had to drive either of those.

Gringotuanis, take the Model 3 test drive that others have suggested. Please get back to us then.

 

[Curt Renz]

Now here's a new angle; columnist suggests Tesla buy BMW:

MarketWatch - 93 minutes ago: Amazon should buy Netflix — and nine other mergers we’d love to see

 

[Buckminster]

Shorts are screaming on twitter that Model3-s are delivered without AP in EU, it will be activated later. Guys from Belgium and Netherlands can you comment is it really so?

A guy on a forum referencing an unsubstantiated rumour on twitter plus the possibility that a new part number means something - All aboard the "HW3 is happening" ship!
I'm a super bull - what are your excuses?

 

[EVNow]

The Leaf 2 selling less than Leaf 1 has nothing to do with range(since your argument is increasing range increase demand and then use the Leaf 2 as an example??) but it's due to the model 3 taking all subpar EVs marketshare(which accounts for 80% of all EVs sold).

No, that's not my argument.

It is that, 150 mile is apparently not enough range to pull demand from nearby 200 mile range EVs in the US.

 

[JRP3]

First, I don't think the price drop is overall good news. If demand was stronger, Tesla wouldn't have needed to drop the price and they could sell all the cars they produce and make better margins and more profit, especially in this very important Q1 quarter.

The Model 3 is basically new technology and new technology pricing tends to go down over time, not because of lack of demand but because of increased cost efficiencies. The 08 iphone was half the price of the 07 iphone, was that a demand problem? The Model T went from $850 in 1908 to $300 in 1925, demand problem?

 

[SO16]

BS. You don't need to reduce the price now. You can delay that and achieve the same result. Because if they are still production limited, those people will be waiting to buy an EV either way.

Do it sooner the better in order to shove the “35k Model 3 will never exist” line down the throats of the shorts. If Tesla can do this profitably, this should also prove to stockholders that Tesla is in a really good position against the competition.

 

[ggr]

Tesla reopens Amazon store again after weird launch [Updated]

So Tesla opened a broken Amazon store, closed it, and now has reopened it after supposed confusion in the executive ranks. Smooth Tesla, Smooth. I keep beating my dead horse, but Tesla’s lack of empowered and qualified managers gets really annoying.

I have an anecdote that mildly contradicts this. I've had 12 years of interaction with Tesla managers now, and all of them seem to have a lot of flexibility and autonomy. The recent one: when we took delivery of our Model 3 last October there was a typo in the trust name on the sale document. It said "the blah blah trust dated June 12 2012", when it should have said June 15. Easy typo to make (probably my fault in fact) and easy to miss. I applied for the California $2500 rebate. It languished for a while, then CVRP asked for the trust documentation, and when I provided it, they noticed the typo. Since it was too late to fix the sale contract they just asked for verification from Tesla that the car really was sold to me. I took the documentation to the delivery center, and explained the situation to Mike. I've met him a number of times over the years, but without going to the center I wouldn't have known who to talk to. He said "no problem" and by the time I got to work about 20 minutes later, he had emailed CVRP and the application was approved. No lack of decisiveness or autonomy there!

 

[sweter]

Shorts are screaming on twitter that Model3-s are delivered without AP in EU, it will be activated later. Guys from Belgium and Netherlands can you comment is it really so?

Deliveries are suppose to start tonight at 6 PM CET, so we'll know more then (if they happen).

But it was certainly the case for test drives. All reviews from test drives in EU I've seen mentioned that EAP was not yet available.

EDIT: PS. But some US versions driving in Europe did have EAP no problem. That's how You You Xue crashed his.