Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Renault is down 5% today, 12% this year and 58% over the last two years and the troubles have only just begun. Big ICE sales crash in the making, billions in stranded assets, billions in debt and legacy costs, billions needed for developing EVs, which at first will have negative or virtually no margin.

And this is the prospect for all OEMs!

Which investor in their right mind would put any money in traditional OEM stocks for the next five years? If you want to invest in automotive there is only one viable option at the moment. I expect a lot of smart money to switch to TSLA in the coming years.

Currently:

--0.6% F
--0.5% FCAU
--0.2% GM
+0.5% TSLA (Green)

 

[mejojo]

I know lox is also liquid oxygen, but I can't get the image of someone stuffing a rocket with brined salmon out of my mind....

Does that have anything to do with that sardine bubble thing?

 

[Mkorpal]

I know lox is also liquid oxygen, but I can't get the image of someone stuffing a rocket with brined salmon out of my mind....

If you've ever watched a nature documentary, you'd know they are nature's little rockets.

 

[Singuy]

In the next 50 years somebody will replace or upgrade the solar on your roof. Warranty of panels is usually 25 years, inverters maybe 10. The roof below your panels also may have a limited lifetime unless you meant that you have a tesla solar glass roof instead of panels.

Efficiency of production as well as different demand for electricity from your appliances/cars will drive that, too. Then think about all the legacy cars that need to be recycled, and the charging infrastructure for solar powered daytime charging that businesses and workplaces want to deploy. The transition will create a lot more jobs than you think. The only caveat is that with the increase of innovation also comes efficiency in automation.

For sure the hard part of the disruption is that the job skills don't translate, and that retraining and relocation are adding cost. Instead of making oil change kits, now you have to be a firefighter or dam reinforcer or solar installer.

No doubt Musk's vision will create jobs. But we are still talking about for 1 job created, 3-5 are lost as it should be. Make no mistake, going renewable is not some job creation endeavor. Going autonomous taxi is not some job creating endeavor. Nothing in Musk's plan screams job creation net positive.

 

[SageBrush]

Interesting (paywall article):

Renault Is Downgraded to Sell. Citi Says the Car Maker Is Running Out of Cash.

Sell Nissan !?

To Whom, and for how much ? Nissan is staring into the brink of BK

 

[Dare]

FF to 7:45 for the money quote.

 

[Lessmog]

Klaus Fröhlich Head of BMW R & D select quotes

Right now a fuel cell powertrain costs about 10 times more than a BEV’s system. We plan to have those costs equalized by 2025 with the third generation of our scalable fuel cell system, which could result in volumes in the hundreds of thousands.

A fuel cell is a BEV without a battery but a fast charger that is called a fuel cell and a 700-bar hydrogen tank somewhere in the car. We develop fuel cells with Toyota and will begin pilot production of the second generation of these models at the beginning of the next decade on the X6 and X7.

The best assumption is that electrified vehicles will account for 20 percent to 30 percent of worldwide sales by 2030, but with a very diverse global distribution. China’s big east coast cities will become purely electric pretty soon while western China will rely on gasoline engines for the next 15 to 20 years due to a lack of infrastructure.

In Europe there is reluctance to jump directly to BEVs, so plug-in hybrids are the right solution. They will be used as BEVs during the week and run on gasoline on weekends or long trips. We expect plug-in hybrids to account for up to 25 percent of [European sales], gasoline and diesel will have more than 50 percent and the rest will be BEVs.

Most of the U.S. does not need BEVs. We could offer high-performance plug-in hybrids in the M space, providing a lot of fun to the driver as well as [environmental] credits for us. We see BEVs mainly in the west coast and parts of the east coast, while the rest of the U.S. will continue with conventional gasoline engines.

BMW r&d chief sees rising demand for diverse, multifunctional powertrains

Good grief, BMW is ****ed.

Cheeze Doodles on a stick! I must immediately increase my humble short on BMW that has so far only earned 33%. They must be huffing some stuff, no other sensible explanation.

Also, please study FC's comment just below (not fool cell; @Fact Checking ) for additional arguments.

 

[SageBrush]

Government policy making is about job protection

No, policy rubber stamping by the government is about corporate protection and then selling it to the ignorant populace as job protection.

The only reason politics has even a sliver of rationality is that part of the corporate landscape (some insurances, e.g.) has a tight profit linkage to reality.

 

[StealthP3D]

In the cases of Tesla and the stock market in general, Nader is far outside his area of expertise. His related tweets make obvious his ignorance in this sphere. Why is he commenting on such matters?

Being ignorant of his subject matter is nothing new for Nader. When he wrote his book on the Corvair "Unsafe at Any Speed", he didn't even have a driver's license! The NHTSA later proved his unsafe handling claims false (by testing and using real-world statistics).

 

[mrdoubleb]

Sell Nissan !?

To Whom, and for how much ? Nissan is staring into the brink of BK

The Japanese want it back. I think they will find a couple of local banks which will purchase it directly or finance a Japanese company's purchase of Nissan.

 

[LJS22]

Are we about to see a big push to close? I like 575

 

[Nocturnal]

This is what bots trading with bots looks like I guess. 15 million traded and nothing happened so far.

The house always makes a profit.

 

[Fact Checking]

And before people say "renewable like solar and gigafatories create jobs!" Yeah but a couple of guys spent 8hrs on my roof to install solar and now I don't ever have to use the supply chain of carbon for 50 years. That's scary efficiency and the government knows it.

That's nonsense. The solar on your roof doesn't replace much employment: neither natural gas, coal or nuclear power are labor intensive.

Here's U.S. coal mining employment for example:

Currently below 50,000 people - fossil fuel extraction is very labor efficient.

On the other side, to make 0.4m vehicles a year Tesla needs ~40k employees, most of them in their automotive segment.

Just doubling Tesla's production will create as many jobs in the U.S. as the entire coal industry - and these are vastly higher quality, high-tech jobs.

1,000,000,000 ICE vehicles need to be replaced globally, at an accelerated rate. What does that mean? More employment.

Here's an extensive study about the job creation effects of the "Green New Deal":

Would a Green New Deal Add or Kill Jobs?

"New jobs from energy-efficiency investments would be significant, totaling 1.8 million in 2030 and 4.2 million in 2050."​

History also supports this notion: in most past disruption events, almost without exception disruption increased employment.

 

[DragonWatch]

Klaus Fröhlich Head of BMW R & D select quotes

Most of the U.S. does not need BEVs. We could offer high-performance plug-in hybrids in the M space, providing a lot of fun to the driver as well as [environmental] credits for us. We see BEVs mainly in the west coast and parts of the east coast, while the rest of the U.S. will continue with conventional gasoline engines.

BMW r&d chief sees rising demand for diverse, multifunctional powertrains

Good grief, BMW is ****ed.

I can grantee you, Bubba here in the NW US will buy out the CyberTruck due to its ability to deflect penetration of a 9-mm. His only problem will be figuring out how to charge it at the local ICE station, and look cool

 

[Nocturnal]

Greta rejects U.S. Treasury chief's degree dig in latest climate clash

Steven Mnuchin possesses an economics degree from Yale—yet denies science—I place far greater value in Greta Thunberg’s judgement.

He doesn't work in thr field so his degree doesn't mean that much. I have an economics degree also. Not from Yale but from a respectable program (no idea how impressive yale economics school is) and I don't work in the field either.

He is a joke. Typical slimy investment banker with zero credibility when discussing economics.

 

[sundaymorning]

BTW., with wording like "fines" for "cheating" the press continues to whitewash the Volkswagen Diesel Fraud Crime: these are penalties for a deliberate, decade long series of hard core fraud executed as a criminal conspiracy, which killed thousands of people and injured millions globally, for a few measly billions in illicit profits, and to which their response was a similarly criminal, systematic cover-up that I suspect makes quite a few former and current VW employees unable to travel to the U.S. without risking arrest ...

In normal circumstances such series of crimes would instantly bankrupt a company and would mark the brand toxic forever, but VW and the fossil fuel industry are the biggest media advertisers in the world ...

I think Shorters are asking the wrong questions here about the competition. Instead of worrying about competition coming after Tesla, they should be worried about how much companies such as VW, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc. are covering up? I would hate to invest in a stock that has its company hiding the facts from investors and the government about its emission scandal. Is it 500,000 cars? 1 million cars? Or 10 million cars? Where does it stop and where does it begin?

 

[Nocturnal]

I can grantee you, Bubba here in the NW US will buy out the CyberTruck due to its ability to deflect penetration of a 9-mm. His only problem will be figuring out how to charge it at the local ICE station, and look cool

Tesla just needs to offer an anti-Obama edition that includes a gun rack.

 

[LJS22]

FF to 7:45 for the money quote.

I like this guys quote at 7:06

“The world is full of small inconveniences that people profit off of”
The context is gas stations, and mechanical issues of gas powered cars that have led to industries making money in unnecessary areas when compared to EV’s.

 

[KarenRei]

I know lox is also liquid oxygen, but I can't get the image of someone stuffing a rocket with brined salmon out of my mind....

You can actually do that with a suitable binder in a hybrid rocket - although it then becomes the fuel instead of the oxidizer. And if you use liquid oxygen as the oxidizer, you'd then have a LOX-lox rocket

 

[Singuy]

That's nonsense. The solar on your roof doesn't replace much: neither natural gas, coal or nuclear power are labor intensive. Here's U.S. coal mining employment:

Currently below 50,000 people.

On the other side, to make 0.4m vehicles a year Tesla needs 40k employees.

Just doubling Tesla's production will create more jobs than the entire coal industry - and these are vastly higher quality, high-tech jobs.

1,000,000,000 ICE vehicles need to be replaced globally, at an accelerated rate. What does that mean? More employment.

Here's an extensive study about the job creation effects of the "Green New Deal":

Would a Green New Deal Add or Kill Jobs?

"New jobs from energy-efficiency investments would be significant, totaling 1.8 million in 2030 and 4.2 million in 2050."​

History also supports this notion: in most past disruption events, almost without exception disruption increased employment.

The job loss comes more from gasoline production line+OEM parts from reduction in car parts+reduction in maintenance than from electric generation. There are over 100k gas stations in the US in which everyone needs to visit once to twice a week. I have visited a supercharger station twice after 25k miles driven. There are about zero employees at a supercharger station. That's a huge difference amount of work force gone just from that.

All though I feel like having gigantic solar farms + battery storage is way more efficient than coal mining/transportation. Things like that is rarely studied because it hasn't been done on a massive scale.