Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tenable]

Short term trending bearishly? We only set ATH about twice a week going on for like 2 months now.

Lol I short term trade a lot. In this case I've had to butterfly my position at a loss. It happens, but it still makes me a little sad. My friend actually just talked me out of my previous post. I've removed all of my September put spread hedges in order to buy back my short calls. I'm not fully exposed bullishly again and I've spent 15k on put butterflies, spreads, and naked puts expiring January 31. Its pretty gross considering I'm expecting Tesla to pull in 100mm+ in profit more than last quarter. But I've been right on Tesla turning profits and wrong about how the share price reacted in the past. This 15k is almost guaranteed to go to zero, but I don't have the stomach to go through another massive downturn again.

Feel free to flame me and post about how its all about the long term. Apparently I hate money.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So if Tesla are conducting cold weather testing of the Model Y presently, how does that square with the February delivery rumor? Hard to imagine they would still be doing testing this close to supposed deliveries. I'm growing increasingly skeptical of the Reddit rumor from the other day.

Tesla Model Y prototypes spotted cold-weather testing in Minnesota snow - Electrek

 

[KarenRei]

Someone's kids decided to make a video for TSLAQ...

Zachary Pernikliyski on Twitter

 

[Cherry Wine]

Lol I short term trade a lot. In this case I've had to butterfly my position at a loss. It happens, but it still makes me a little sad. My friend actually just talked me out of my previous post. I've removed all of my September put spread hedges in order to buy back my short calls. I'm not fully exposed bullishly again and I've spent 15k on put butterflies, spreads, and naked puts expiring January 31. Its pretty gross considering I'm expecting Tesla to pull in 100mm+ in profit more than last quarter. But I've been right on Tesla turning profits and wrong about how the share price reacted in the past. This 15k is almost guaranteed to go to zero, but I don't have the stomach to go through another massive downturn again.

Feel free to flame me and post about how its all about the long term. Apparently I hate money.

Genuine question: unless you are exposed to short term derivatives and/or possibly need the money in the short term, why bother?

 

[JRP3]

So if Tesla are conducting cold weather testing of the Model Y presently, how does that square with the February delivery rumor? Hard to imagine they would still be doing testing this close to supposed deliveries. I'm growing increasingly skeptical of the Reddit rumor from the other day.

Tesla Model Y prototypes spotted cold-weather testing in Minnesota snow - Electrek

presumably doing some cold-weather testing ahead of the start of production.

 

[dl003]

Lol I short term trade a lot. In this case I've had to butterfly my position at a loss. It happens, but it still makes me a little sad. My friend actually just talked me out of my previous post. I've removed all of my September put spread hedges in order to buy back my short calls. I'm not fully exposed bullishly again and I've spent 15k on put butterflies, spreads, and naked puts expiring January 31. Its pretty gross considering I'm expecting Tesla to pull in 100mm+ in profit more than last quarter. But I've been right on Tesla turning profits and wrong about how the share price reacted in the past. This 15k is almost guaranteed to go to zero, but I don't have the stomach to go through another massive downturn again.

Feel free to flame me and post about how its all about the long term. Apparently I hate money.

not trying to flame you. Just hate for fellow longs to leave money on the table. As mentioned by many on this board, Q4 ER will be much more about 2020 onward outlook than just financials. Majority of positive things discussed here have not been picked up by the media. The only short term bets I'm making are call spreads, some at the low today, some just before the rally past 500.

 

[MP3Mike]

So if Tesla are conducting cold weather testing of the Model Y presently, how does that square with the February delivery rumor? Hard to imagine they would still be doing testing this close to supposed deliveries. I'm growing increasingly skeptical of the Reddit rumor from the other day.

Tesla Model Y prototypes spotted cold-weather testing in Minnesota snow - Electrek

That is just more bad reporting by Electrek. Yes, Model Y prototypes where spotted in Minnesota. Were they cold-weather testing? I doubt it. Tesla has a high quality dedicated cold testing facility, that is where they would do cold weather testing. Not parked in a random parking lot in Minnesota.

 

[Krugerrand]

Apparently I hate money.

And yet you refuse to listen to the wisdom of your inner voice. Nothing and nobody can save you from yourself.

So ends today’s Zen session.

 

[Curt Renz]

Klaus Fröhlich Head of BMW R & D select quotes

Right now a fuel cell powertrain costs about 10 times more than a BEV’s system. We plan to have those costs equalized by 2025 with the third generation of our scalable fuel cell system, which could result in volumes in the hundreds of thousands.

A fuel cell is a BEV without a battery but a fast charger that is called a fuel cell and a 700-bar hydrogen tank somewhere in the car. We develop fuel cells with Toyota and will begin pilot production of the second generation of these models at the beginning of the next decade on the X6 and X7.

The best assumption is that electrified vehicles will account for 20 percent to 30 percent of worldwide sales by 2030, but with a very diverse global distribution. China’s big east coast cities will become purely electric pretty soon while western China will rely on gasoline engines for the next 15 to 20 years due to a lack of infrastructure.

In Europe there is reluctance to jump directly to BEVs, so plug-in hybrids are the right solution. They will be used as BEVs during the week and run on gasoline on weekends or long trips. We expect plug-in hybrids to account for up to 25 percent of [European sales], gasoline and diesel will have more than 50 percent and the rest will be BEVs.

Most of the U.S. does not need BEVs. We could offer high-performance plug-in hybrids in the M space, providing a lot of fun to the driver as well as [environmental] credits for us. We see BEVs mainly in the west coast and parts of the east coast, while the rest of the U.S. will continue with conventional gasoline engines.

BMW r&d chief sees rising demand for diverse, multifunctional powertrains

Good grief, BMW is ****ed.

My bolding within the quote.

Oddly the German Fröhlich appears poorly informed about Chicagoland and the widely Germanic Midwest.

 

[Beltsbear]

Tesla just needs to offer an anti-Obama edition that includes a gun rack.

Tesla’s can run on coal even if they rarely do. That should be worth lots to Trump.

 

[larmor]

That is just more bad reporting by Electrek. Yes, Model Y prototypes where spotted in Minnesota. Were they cold-weather testing? I doubt it. Tesla has a high quality dedicated cold testing facility, that is where they would do cold weather testing. Not parked in a random parking lot in Minnesota.

Plus they have access to all weather testing facilities:
NASA - JSC Engineering - Altitude/Environmental/Space Testing Facilities

 

[ZeApelido]

Seems to be a support level at around the $560 - 565 mark. Looks to me like there was support at this level yesterday afternoon and again today, despite the attempts to walk the SP down.

Shorts also have support.... Life Support!

Zing! I'm here all day folks...

 

[Thekiwi]

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned here yet:

With the increasing concern about the CoronaVirus in China, is it not likely Tesla will see a jump in Chinese sales of cars with Bioweapon Defense Mode A/C equipped? (Model S/X)

They should probably look at making it an option available to the MIC model 3 (if they haven't already), I imagine it would be popular in areas of high pollution anyway.

 

[Dare]

I like this guys quote at 7:06

“The world is full of small inconveniences that people profit off of”
The context is gas stations, and mechanical issues of gas powered cars that have led to industries making money in unnecessary areas when compared to EV’s.

Yep. Just had my credit card skimmed at a gas station a couple of weeks ago. That’s a huge theft industry.

 

[JRP3]

That is just more bad reporting by Electrek. Yes, Model Y prototypes where spotted in Minnesota. Were they cold-weather testing? I doubt it. Tesla has a high quality dedicated cold testing facility, that is where they would do cold weather testing. Not parked in a random parking lot in Minnesota.

It's funny how every sighting of the Y not driving in snow wasn't called "warm weather" or "summer weather" testing

 

[dww12]

Need option “not advice”.
If you own 100sh and think Tesla is going to 1000+ in the next year and you want to double your shares but you don’t have the cash to buy another 100 right now... but will next year.

Would it make sense to sell 1 contract of Jan 2021 700 calls for $64 and buy 2 contracts of Jan 2021 800 calls for $44, costing $1,400 (vs $4,400 for 1 800 call).

Is the worst thing that could happen is the price goes down and you lose on your current holdings plus the $1,400?

Is the second “worse” the price goes to $801, you lose $10k on the 700-800 rise and get margin called for 200sh @ 800?

 

[Tenable]

Genuine question: unless you are exposed to short term derivatives and/or possibly need the money in the short term, why bother?

Honestly, I think I've been traumatized by TSLA. With my model I (thanks in very very VERY large part to members of this forum at the time) predicted the first quarterly profit against an expected loss. That night I celebrated, danced, had a drink slept like a baby. The next morning the stock shot up ever so briefly and then went straight down and didnt stop. It seems at times you can be right and still be very wrong. Tesla right now has nothing but tailwinds and clear skies ahead as far as I can see. I got my FSD installed in my Model S yesterday, and when I asked them to look into a possible suspension and motor issue, they told me it would cost me $97 dollars if nothing was wrong. If there was indeed an issue it would be free. They are being more and more efficient. I went to CES and got inside the Mercedes EQC. I have no idea why they let us get into it because the dash screen kept flashing "malfunction" and the GPS lagged by 1-2 seconds when trying to hit the keys. Competition is clearly not coming. Tesla keeps moving ahead. I literally cant see a reason I need these puts. But the past has scarred me and I don't want to live through a drop to 380. I've also purchased a smaller number of bullish spreads in the event we move up as we should.

It may not be entirely rational. But its an honest answer.

 

[ZeApelido]

I worked on a rocket program and we burned lox and kerosene even though hydrogen is a better rocket fuel due to the difficulty handling hydrogen.

Dude, that's no way to treat smoked salmon...

EDIT: wayyy late on this one

 

[ZeApelido]

Renault is down 5% today, 12% this year and 58% over the last two years and the troubles have only just begun. Big ICE sales crash in the making, billions in stranded assets, billions in debt and legacy costs, billions needed for developing EVs, which at first will have negative or virtually no margin.

But other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

 

[wipster]

Alright! Don't let the bastards get you down!