Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Funny. I watched the live webcast on YouTube in Oct/Nov 2012, when Elon announced the Supercharger Network. It was the one piece of the Tesla puzzle I felt was missing, and the one thing that was holding me back from investing. It was also the perfect cure for range anxiety, which was, frankly, what was holding me back from buying a Model S.

So I watched the announcement, and for anyone paying attention it was a pure "duh" moment -- Tesla made it obvious that the Tesla Supercharger Network was going to be a huge moat for Tesla. So I sold all my AAPL and GOOG holdings and backed up the truck on TSLA. And in 2013 I got my Model S.

Hey, I don't work for Morgan Stanley, nor do I have any sort of degree in finance or an MBA, and yet, still I was able to figure the moat thing over six years ago.

What's Morgan Stanley's excuse?

My ‘duh’ moment was the first mention of Gigafactory. It was then I knew Tesla would succeed in their mission. It took three mentions of it before mainstream media picked up on it. And of course they weaved their FUD stories for years.

 

[TradingInvest]

Thanks, that's what I was was thinking of, but was just wondering if there had been anything else more recently, otherwise the confirmation of a March 15 reveal could be a positive for the stock in the very near future.

I think most people know that Tesla have walked away from that March 15 date, instead, they said they will delay the Model Y unveiling until it's very close to real production. The #1 reason I guess is to not impact S3X demand. #2 reason is there may be some features they don't want to disclose too soon.

In the past, Tesla unveil products early to gage the demand, and to get the deposit money. They no longer need that.

Elon said the truck may be ready for unveiling this Summer.

 

[AudubonB]

What's more devastating is that if you read between the lines, the current e-tron, which is not based on the PPE platform, is essentially its french meaning of the word - a substandard product hastily put together.
...

OK, that little hint caused me to run to my French-English dictionary.

Result: Wow. This is much better than Chevrolet trying to sell into Latin America its 1970-80s era "Nova", which I'm assuming all realize means in Spanish "doesn't go".

It is, in fact, a priceless name. SPadival is being very kind in his characterization. Go at it, all the rest of you!

 

[Steve m]

My take on the stock price is that it is what it is and if tesla continues to increase production volume, improve quality, improve after production service, build another factory or two, improve battery power density bolth mass and volume wise staying well ahead of its competitors then the stock price will do just fine.

I am patient.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This

My take on the stock price is that it is what it is and if tesla continues to increase production volume, improve quality, improve after production service, build another factory or two, improve battery power density bolth mass and volume wise staying well ahead of its competitors then the stock price will do just fine.

I am patient.

You have better patience than most. We all listed out nearly those exact same things going into Q3 and Q4 and I think a lot us here thought those quarters were going to be the catalyst. Boy were we wrong lol. Like EVnow said , I'll cheer up a lot more when Tesla is fairly valued.

 

[Singer3000]

I think most people know that Tesla have walked away from that March 15 date, instead, they said they will delay the Model Y unveiling until it's very close to real production. The #1 reason I guess is to not impact S3X demand. #2 reason is there may be some features they don't want to disclose too soon.

I think there's a couple of things that might delay the Model Y unveil a bit.

More time taken in pre-production, to try and improve the ramp for Model Y relative to Model 3:

07 Feb 2018 earnings call:
"I'm pretty excited about the Model Y stuff, and I think I want to present that in a more cohesive fashion. It's probably not the next earnings call, but call it six months from now. But I'm really excited about the Model Y manufacturing and the design for manufacturing, like potentially how do we design out all the pain that we're currently going through. We do not want to experience it again​

And as others have mentioned, cannibalisation / osborning fears if too long a gap is left between unveil and production (for little obvious benefit). At the time of the March 15th 2019 Tweet (May 2018), the economic climate was warmer. And Tesla's expectations of SR Model 3 timeline were more ambitious than has played out.

Of course, the other thing that changed since May 2018 is that the deal was inked for the fully-owned Shanghai plant, with construction going gangbusters. This delayed the ramp to 10k/week by a year but lays far more solid foundations for margins and long term demand (i.e. tariff free sales to China with cheaper COGS).

We're hence still waiting for the cohesive plan (with varying shades of patience). When it comes, we should hopefully get clear details not only on North American production and timeline but the same for Shanghai (I'd guess 6-12 months behind the US for Model Y).

 

[AcesDealt]

Alright lovers of all things modelling.. if you were to estimate the marginal op.ex cost per unit sales, what would you use?

I.e. if in 2023 I told you they were shipping 1.5m units more annually than now, what would be the op.ex? This would therefore be covering both the fixed and variable costs. Presumably there are gross costs as well which remain above the line the same as now.

 

[gringotuanis]

Then you have the shutdown for this weekend - but the biggest worry is China trade. As March 1st nears, if there is no deal, who knows what Trump will do ? Most likely he will just push the self declared deadline, but a mean tweet by Ann Coulter could make all the difference.

they'll probably push the deadline. If China trade has good news wth

I don't think so. Elon said he "approved the prototype to go into production" during the Q3 2018 Conference Call (link is to my transcription from audio Oct 24, 2018).

Elon R. Musk -- Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer & Product Architect

"So we've made significant progress on the Model Y. So in fact I approved the prototype to go into production recently, so it will be 2020 before that's in volume production. We made great progress there."
​

That prototype will be the vehicle shown during the upcoming Model Y Reveal, which is not to be confused with the final Production version. So not pencils down yet.

This doesn't make sense . If he approved the prototype to go into production, that is the definition of pencils down isnt it?

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[gringotuanis]

Karen,
You're likely onto something with the naked short-selling loophole. It fits well with the bigger picture.

Comparing Dusaniwsky's "short sight" data from yesterday morning and this morning, I see that shorts (who have been relatively neutral on changing short interest since the Q4 ER), increased short interest by about 345,000 shares yesterday. That makes no sense in terms of timing to make money on the shorting (good news causing TSLA to rise yesterday), but it does make sense as a manipulation tool (345,000 shares that were shorted yesterday to reduce TSLA's climb) but these shares couldn't be covered before close yesterday and so short interest rose going into today.

The quantity of manipulations with Tesla is eye opening. Wishing the U.S. had some government entity that actually showed a smidgen of effort at keeping TSLA trading honest. TSLA is one of the top three or four battleground stocks in the market and has been so for quite some time, which suggests it should have significant scrutiny by government overseers, but such is apparently not the case.

This post is either confusing to read (for me lol) or indicates an extreme lack of knowledge about shorting.
Of course Tesla short positions would increase on a day the stock rises 3.5 percent. You increase a short position when you think the stock will go down in the future. So as it rises, naturally more shorts would start to add to their positions. If it rose to new highs tomorrow, you would again see huge short interest numbers. They cover when they think it's bottomed and lock in their gains. Not all of them are Chanos and Spiegel who started shorting at $200 SP.

 

[Singuy]

Bill Gates on Tesla @ MKHBD - Amazing product, but niche-premium, lost tax credits, tons of competition coming, maybe eventually batteries might work for trucks???

didn't expect that, I feel like I am a Tesla lunatic.

Starts at about 2:30

Surprised by someone who practically made his business by the use of marketshare power, and then lost on so many things due to a lack of marketshare power. Windows was given out for free to put them on the map, and many failed attempt to capture apple's marketshare with the early mp3 players to nokia has fallen flat.

"Competition" is only a problem when there are no prominent brand dominating or being synonymous with a particular product. We all know that Tesla is synonymous with electric car. They make the best and if you want electric, you go Tesla. Many brand survive on this kind of dominance even when they have inferior products like BOSE or Apple.

So yeah, it's frustrating to us shareholders everytime Elon drops the price, but at least he's not giving away his cars like Bill with Windows.

 

[Steve m]

Q3 was the indication production rates could reach profitability.
Q4 indicated that tesla didn't need volunteers to help meet delivery targets.

Quality seems to be getting better

Support needs work.

China factory has started being built when it is operationally profitable is an unknown.

Batteries seem to be getting better cost wise is Tesla on a path that leads to higher density? I hope so. They know better then I.

Beyond these additional models seem like a no brainer.

Self driving has always seemed like gravey but the accident avoidance in it self seems like a game changer to saving lives.

2019 and 2020 will be interesting.

I am patient.

 

[ZsoZso]

OK, that little hint caused me to run to my French-English dictionary.

Result: Wow. This is much better than Chevrolet trying to sell into Latin America its 1970-80s era "Nova", which I'm assuming all realize means in Spanish "doesn't go".

It is, in fact, a priceless name. SPadival is being very kind in his characterization. Go at it, all the rest of you!

Well, you have gotta give Audi some credit. After all the lies regarding dieselgate, finally they are honest in their marketing of their first EV

-- at least in french-speaking markets

 

[Papafox]

This post is either confusing to read (for me lol) or indicates an extreme lack of knowledge about shorting.
Of course Tesla short positions would increase on a day the stock rises 3.5 percent. You increase a short position when you think the stock will go down in the future. So as it rises, naturally more shorts would start to add to their positions. If it rose to new highs tomorrow, you would again see huge short interest numbers. They cover when they think it's bottomed and lock in their gains. Not all of them are Chanos and Spiegel who started shorting at $200 SP.

I follow the trends of short interest and short percentage of TSLA selling on a daily basis. When good news prompts a one day rise in the TSLA stock price, this has not historically been a time to see short interest increase. Looking at the chart provided by Ihor Dusaniwsky, we saw a good amount of short covering as the Q4 earnings report approached. We then have seen rather stable short interest even though the stock price has fluctuated quite a bit. Your statement is contrary to the movements that I observe every day. If you have a thesis about when shorts cover and when they increase their positions, why don't you lay it out in this thread and we'll see how well it does over the coming few months.

 

[hacer]

Love me some Dawkins

He's a Tesla owner and member of TMC. Loss of map data

 

[hacer]

Artful Dodger,
I promise to stop calling you Shirley, or Karen.

Plus you can tell from the avatar that Jodie is the name.

 

[Singer3000]

Sorry for being depressingly consistent. As soon as the SP behaves, I'll change my tune

TSLA was at 376 as recently as 13th Dec. It all looked very jolly for Christmas. It then got dragged down by the Index and hasn't enjoyed the subsequent rally.

I don't think this should be a surprise, given we now know that sometime during Q4, T Rowe Price dumped half of their their long term holding (worth about 5%). Maybe there were also others that haven't yet disclosed. And just as TSLA was picking itself up off the dirt, its run during the Jan 2019 NASDAQ rally was halted by the Saudis de-risking their 5% position. The reported collar execution date was 17-Jan.

The Saudis' rationale was likely to have idiosyncratic reasons. We don't know T Rowe Price's rationale but maybe they were scared witless of a 2019 recession and wanted to trim their holdings of very high delta stocks.

But this is all a lot of noise. If Tesla the company meets its operational objectives, then I have little doubt TSLA the stock will outperform the Index over my own investment time frame.

 

[anthonyj]

Audi's Electric E-tron Is Real, And Coming Soon

Is this why shares dropped today?

 

[printf42]

And this time, instead of reservations - they just take orders, starting with the highest trim first, of course.

And they know the demands are there, and since it shares most resources with Model 3, they don’t have to announce the base price to gauge/pump up demand.
So, just announce signature series and take orders at high premium over M3, don’t announce when base trim would be available and for how much. This way there is no danger of deferring Model 3 orders.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Audi's Electric E-tron Is Real, And Coming Soon

Is this why shares dropped today?

Can’t tell if serious... that’s from 10 years ago...