Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mich]

is the IV crush over? are we back to normal levels? I had big losses on my march 1200 calls...

 

[flabellina]

He never said that. You are welcome to link any quote to that effect. There are quotes that people heard that way, but he said something totally different.

“The stock price that we have is more than we any right to deserve,” interview on Bloomberg Television in 2013
“I’ve gone on the record several times that the stock price is higher than we have the right to deserve and that’s for sure true based on where we are today,” National Governors Association summer meeting in 2017

Investors should know that Elon, good or bad, mostly says what he thinks, Shortseller Enrichment Commission and all.

Mod: This discussion can end now too. --ggr

 

[AlexS]

“The stock price that we have is more than we any right to deserve,” interview on Bloomberg Television in 2013
“I’ve gone on the record several times that the stock price is higher than we have the right to deserve and that’s for sure true based on where we are today,” National Governors Association summer meeting in 2017

Investors should know that Elon, good or bad, mostly says what he thinks, Shortseller Enrichment Commission and all.

But just recently he said ignore the noise and hold your shares to employees

 

[Mkorpal]

Quite some volume traded in the first half hour.

It certainly doesn't feel that way.

 

[30seconds]

I am still in awe about how Tesla is able to keep new products under wraps.

I’m pretty sure they aren’t done yet & I wonder what the next reveal will be.

Of course, I’m sure soon we will start getting stupid $TSLAQ claims that the Model Y is failing since there hasn’t been a release date yet

 

[canoemore]

I am still in awe about how Tesla is able to keep new products under wraps.

I’m pretty sure they aren’t done yet & I wonder what the next reveal will be.

Of course, I’m sure soon we will start getting stupid $TSLAQ claims that the Model Y is failing since there hasn’t been a release date yet

I think one of the reveals coming in the next few years will be something in the realm of high-efficiency home HVAC. Something that will erase remaining issues with electrifying heating systems in very cold climates. Would fit into their product ecosystem very nicely.

 

[Jack6591]

https://www.lamayor.org/sites/g/files/wph446/f/page/file/20200210ExecutiveDirective25.pdf

 

[AlexS]

Is Andrew Left from Citron still short Shopify? if yes he is getting the burn today. And as he re-opened Tesla short, he might cover some.

 

[lklundin]

some production data from China found on twitter

The tweet:
Moneyball on Twitter

 

[bhzmark]

Interesting WSJ article dropped re sell ratings on TSLA. Record Share of Analysts Have Sell Ratings on Tesla

Has a nice chart:

Would have been more informative to overlay a stock price chart on the analyst ratings chart

 

[Nocturnal]

The average income of a 4 person household would be $200k if your earlier post of 50k per capita is correct.
That same family would be at $65k at the 50th percentile

The presumed $9k per year car costs are a huge burden to the median family. Fwiw though, I very much doubt a median household takes on that kind of car burden. Perhaps the $9k figure is also an average, and is poorly representative of the median cost burden.

Not trying to nitpick here, but to point out that EV acquisition and TCO are likely still way outside of the median ICE TCO

That analysis is not correct. Per capita income is for people above the age of 15, and not every household contains 4 people, let alone 4 adults.

$9k is the mean.

Yes, still having a position in Tesla with cash to buy more will mitigate this kind of thinking. In that case SP going up or down are both ‘good’. But being all out is a dangerous position to be in.

Yup, that's the position I'm in. My current holdings meet my minimum goal, but I'm ready to pick up another sizable chunk if Q1 goes poorly. I'm comfortable with either event.

I've been a bit pessimistic about Q1, but I'm starting to question this. Wall Street should be expecting a softer quarter than Q4 (of course some will pretend otherwise for malicious reasons). I think there is a shot at squeaking by with a tiny profit, and we also have Customer day in Buffalo and Battery day, the latter which might demonstrate something truly exciting and easy for the market to understand. ​

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I sure hope so. I am in the market for heat-pump based hot water and heating and the available products are not very convincing. I would buy a Tesla product in this space in a heartbeat, especially if they interface it with powerwall and solar to enable 'use-on-supply' strategies.

Since we're not using the appropriate forums/threads....

I'd like to see a Powerwall 3(or 4) that handles all electricity roles. It's your breaker panel, a smart meter, a solar inverter, your home storage, your car charger, your portable cell charging station(for tools, etc). If the bulk of the cells or the car charger need to be in a different location, just run a line to them and keep the hub. If the utility demands a readout, stream them a real-time meter.

 

[Eugene Ash]

I think one of the reveals coming in the next few years will be something in the realm of high-efficiency home HVAC. Something that will erase remaining issues with electrifying heating systems in very cold climates. Would fit into their product ecosystem very nicely.

that would be swell if they figure it out. Air to air heatpumps already exist but are not terribly efficient in cold climates. They work, but COP is severely reduced. [source: i own both a geothermal and air-to-air]. Currently there are pretty efficient systems from Mitsubishi, so i would not waste too much engineering effort on things like this. TSLA has bigger fish to fry now...

 

[StealthP3D]

Fire at Louisiana ExxonMobil refinery seen for miles; no injuries

Don't worry, the fire is contained to private property and has no effect on anyone else:

The company said in a tweet that it was responding the situation, including monitoring air quality at the fence line. The air outside the plant “bore no particular odor,” The Advocate reported. There was no off-site impact, fire department spokesman Monte said.

Knowing that large fires like this always create a huge updraft that is fed by pulling in cooler ground-level air from the surrounding area, we can rest easy knowing this fire is not violating the laws of physics!

 

[lklundin]

https://www.lamayor.org/sites/g/files/wph446/f/page/file/20200210ExecutiveDirective25.pdf

If a TMC poster comes to the conclusion that a link is worth posting, then it would be very helpful with a single sentence capturing that conclusion - especially for links that themselves have basically zero information. Thanks.

 

[flabellina]

Rob Mauer in his last episode about Daimler says that a source told him that the "battery investors day" and the "company talk in Buffalo" Elon recently mentioned in a tweet will be two different events.

 

[SageBrush]

Starting from my estimate that about 12M non-hedge shorts were in circulation when the SP was 650, and that short interest ($) stays about the same, I anticipate the newer short report will disclose ~ a 12(1- 650/750)) drop = 1.6M shares, so down to ~ 21M total shorted.

I'm ready to put my foot in my mouth should the need arise.

 

[Nocturnal]

I am still in awe about how Tesla is able to keep new products under wraps.

I’m pretty sure they aren’t done yet & I wonder what the next reveal will be.

Of course, I’m sure soon we will start getting stupid $TSLAQ claims that the Model Y is failing since there hasn’t been a release date yet

Up to a few weeks ago they were saying how it was never going to be released. I assume they are still saying that.

That is an excellent point though. They are great at keeping things secret. The new Iphones always seem to get leaked but Tesla can keep entire cars secret.

 

[Remus]

I am still in awe about how Tesla is able to keep new products under wraps.

I’m pretty sure they aren’t done yet & I wonder what the next reveal will be.

Of course, I’m sure soon we will start getting stupid $TSLAQ claims that the Model Y is failing since there hasn’t been a release date yet

Honestly for me current road map is already super exciting and apparently battery production is the real key to unlock the potential.

The semi alone would bring a new era of transportation given enough batteries.

 

[Rammstein]

You know what's wrong with this thinking? That you risk becoming a short for the next few months. Someone who's hoping Tesla Q1 sales will be bad. But not just that. You may start hoping they will not publish a battery breakthrough before Q1 results come out, maybe even that there's a forced Tesla recall. Or worse, that the rate of corona virus infections rises again. Being in a position where you are waiting, no, hoping for lower prices will do bad things to your mind. You will move over to the dark side. Don't go there!

A lot of people who got out at 400, 500 or 600 are in this same position. They are waiting for a lower entry point. And that may only come when bad things happen to Tesla. Some of them will even start hoping for these bad things to happen, if only temporary. Which puts them, more or less, in the same camp as the shorts. That's not a position you want to be in.

Oh no I don’t want bad things to happen at all. I have most of my net worth in Tesla right now. I have cash on the side that’s ready to be deployed. I just want two risks out of the way first. This is according to my living situation and my risk tolerance right now. Once this virus and Q1 is out of the way. I will buy more Tesla shares even if it is higher then today than so be it.