Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

This definitely makes me concerned. Am a big fan, Curt. Did you sell everything or just TSLA?

Thanks for the appreciative comment, but all of us are in different situations with varying degrees of risk tolerance. So please don't consider my example to be personal advice. I just felt I owed my news to the TMC community.

I sold nearly a third of my TSLA shares in February, then all of my other stocks and ETFs earlier this month. I kept holding the rest of my TSLA shares until today. All sales were at profits.

 

[MikeQ]

If your traditional IRA's value is diminished, a conversion to Roth would have a lower tax burden than before it was diminished. Not an advice.

Yep, this is what I was alluding to. I'm not suggesting everyone should run and convert a traditional IRA to a Roth. However, if you're planning to do so and you think it's right for your situation, doing it when the market is down is a good time.

It's also not a bad idea to have both a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA. Just like you diversify to spread your risk, you can spread your tax liability risk by having both. Roth IRAs don't have required minimum distribution and you never know what the tax environment will look like 20 years down the road. Not an advice.

 

[GaryW]

I’m early 60’s. I have a pension and will get Social Security.

I have no debt.

I will keep a nest egg that will cover two years expenses if everything goes south. I don’t expect it to.

Other than that, I’m buying.

 

[Navin]

Thanks for the appreciative comment, but all of us are in different situations with varying degrees of risk tolerance. So please don't consider my example to be personal advice. I just felt I owed my news to the TMC community.

I sold nearly a third of my TSLA shares in February, then all of my other stocks and ETFs earlier this month. I kept holding the rest of my TSLA shares until today. All sales were at profits.

I sold all shares today too. Sucks because I’m a super bull but wanted to lock in some gains vs have that feeling of losing eat at me. Will likely miss the first leg of the rebound but I don’t have much confidence in the market right now given the macro health risks and real arrest in market activities like eating, shopping, working, education, traveling. Jeez.

 

[MC3OZ]

Very good points. And by reading this thread this morning I would say we are very near max fear. Markets are naturally forward-looking but, as they bottom, they tend to over-react to the fear. Then they start looking forward. I think TSLA will escape the worst of it and they have already shown well-above-average resilience.

There is a lot of fear out there (and also evidenced by some right here in this thread). It is always darkest before the dawn. It's always better to take advantage of the fear rather than succumb to it.

In my case my retirement funds are a mix of shares, fixed interest, and a few property assets...

I'm not changing anything as there is no better option...

Interest rates are low, I already have enough diversity and going cash isn't really an option for me..

In terms of shares, I sure Tesla is one of the better companies to be invested in, I think this will end better than the GFC, in terms of the performance of my investments relative to the market average.

We don't owe money, so we can afford to ride it out... short term it is hard to win when everything is down, and interest rates are low.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All these weak longs about! I couldn't imagine the horror of no TSLA shares. Are we going to $1T or what?

Someone needs to hole-punch your blind faith membership cards!

 

[JusRelax]

All these weak longs about! I couldn't imagine the horror of no TSLA shares. Are we going to $1T or what?

Someone needs to hole-punch your blind positivity card!

We must be getting close to max fear.

Not advice.

No seriously, not advice... hard to see this getting better till the US has done some significant testing at the very least.

 

[MC3OZ]

In my case my retirement funds are a mix of shares, fixed interest, and a few property assets...

I'm not changing anything as there is no better option...

Interest rates are low, I already have enough diversity and going cash isn't really an option for me..

In terms of shares, I sure Tesla is one of the better companies to be invested in, I think this will end better than the GFC, in terms of the performance of my investments relative to the market average.

We don't owe money, so we can afford to ride it out... short term it is hard to win when everything is down, and interest rates are low.

Actually I checked and I'm still up from when I made the move in last June...

Had I not moved I would be roughly tracking what the average index has done since June 2019, (from a quick check not good at all) being interested in Tesla and this forum got me to move... plus the price for Tesla was crazy low in 2019...

And I'm in the optimistic camp, in 2-3 years time I expect to still be happy, perhaps even happier.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Ouch! This comment holds a lot of weight coming from Curt. As an opposing view, I'm 41 with a much longer investment horizon. I'm holding and will consider buying more.

yes, holding long and strong & this seems a trifling compared to what was endured with TSLA during the extended lowpoints of 2019. Also just rolled a third of my 401k that had been in government bonds into stocks. will roll the other thirds in if/when the overall market drops additional 10%'s from here...

 

[BornToFly]

Fiat closing a factory in Italy for a while because of Coronavirus - a little green AH. Tesla starting sale of Model Y, down over 7%....

 

[mact3333]

the down forces are very strong...even stronger than I thought...we are at a super critical time right now...we dont have much time to correct this thing imho...we will gap down tomorrow at the open but intraday if we dont get a big reversal and SPX closes below 2420-2430-ish level tomorrow, the 12 year bull run is over and its time to adjust positions and strategies accordingly...I was hoping(genuinely thought it would) that Naz 7300 would hold but that is looking shaky at best now but Im giving this another day for the sake of hope, but imho, tomorrow will be deciding factor for me...if tomorrow is ugly and closes weak then i am afraid SPX 1300-1700 is the most likely target.......this will obvious have repercussions for TSLA too as nobody will be immune.

Either way its time to tighten the belts as you will see many layoffs coming in the next month...even real estate will get tested...universal basic income momo train will get louder and louder as the average Joe's will finally realize that trillion dollar bailouts to the banks with trickle down theories and hopes isn't working for the average person...over the past 25 years the net wealth for the top 5% of society has increased 4 fold and for the bottom 90% of families it has stayed exactly the same...the wealth gap is extremely polarized now and mom and pops of the world need to wake up and demand something that puts money into their pockets first and not the other way around...since most people are struggling they will spend the 1000.00 a month and stimulate the economy...allow them to stay home with their children, go to school, start new businesses, get training for jobs not affected by automation or AI, buy a new car...UBI isn't welfare , its about giving the youth(and future of this country) and struggling elderly of this country a break...something for them rather than the banking elites.

 

[Eugene Ash]

...

If it helps you get prospective, don't value your Tesla holdings in USD. Value them as a unique asset...

Given the age of OP: think about them like 1 share = 1 tesla car by the time you reach retirement age

 

[phantasms]

Anyone else think there’s a bigger systematic problem at play? It’s been my feeling this week and this article is giving me confirmation bias.

Something Weird Is Happening on Wall Street, and Not Just the Stock Sell-Off

 

[JusRelax]

Anyone else think there’s a bigger systematic problem at play? It’s been my feeling this week and this article is giving me confirmation bias.

Something Weird Is Happening on Wall Street, and Not Just the Stock Sell-Off

IMHO, what this says is that they are holding cash instead. Money is leaving stocks but not going to bonds or any other safe haven.

What would be the reason for this? I suspect it's because they are hoping this is a flash in the pan, and want to be ready to dive back in as soon as the covid scare is over or close to over. @StealthP3D has mentioned before that very few are able to get the exact bottom. Everyone wants to be ready for that bottom I'm guessing. They can't do that if they tie their money up in safe havens.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

You guys are going to make it really hard to sleep tonight. I need to quit reading.

 

[EinSV]

Thanks for the appreciative comment, but all of us are in different situations with varying degrees of risk tolerance. So please don't consider my example to be personal advice. I just felt I owed my news to the TMC community.

I sold nearly a third of my TSLA shares in February, then all of my other stocks and ETFs earlier this month. I kept holding the rest of my TSLA shares until today. All sales were at profits.

Curt
Have loved your posts over the years and glad this worked out so incredibly well for you.
Hope to see you back when things settle down a bit.
IMO, Tesla has accomplished amazing things, but its best years lie ahead.

 

[gene]

so just making things up? are there reports of all manufacturing getting shutdown in california? what's the basis for your claim?

Looking at the headlines, it appears it has to do with the closures of Disneyland and other events that aggregate a lot of people together in very close quarters.

I've been to the Tesla factory several times. The manufacturing line workers are rather spread out. At lunch they sit closer at tables, but they could be spread out. Additionally they are mostly all 20 and 3o somethings.

 

[anthonyj]

I sold all of my Tesla shares today. Nice profit, but not nearly as great as it would have been, if I had been wise enough to sell a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, the coronavirus suddenly arose out of left field to upset both my technical and fundamental analysis. I'll consider whether to get back in after the dust appears to have begun to settle.

Bottom

 

[MC3OZ]

and that move to raise capital is something all the HODL can feel warm and cozy about in this moment...but dang I am going to be very amused by what Elon and his brain trust do...I have no idea what they or the stock market is going to do. They say that "fear is worse than knowing." And when it comes to the booger-eating morons that populate the country they got that right.
If a million people died this week the world would be a brighter place. I am not saying it is something I am wanting. But right now the vast majority of people that think they know about the virus have no real understanding of how little it would impact the world ...IF THE PEOPLE WERE RATIONAL.
if half the people that were at risk of dying when they became infected with the virus died where would that really put us?
NO. The Market is not influenced by the virus. It is influenced by the extremely irrational response by people.

A possible circuit breaker for Tesla is Q1 earnings, and in particular if these improve the cash position even marginally.

The other thing Tesla may need to do is slow down expansion slightly, which is most in building new factories and in ramping production.
I think the building part of a factory is low capex in relation to the equipment.

Governments may be prepared to offer incentives for new production and new jobs..

Tesla just needs to keep a big pile of cash for as long as possible... that is the best bet until markets become more normal.

The capital raise now looks extremely well timed .. even prescient.

 

[gene]

I mentioned this already on the Corona thread. Finally my school teacher wife's and daughter's school is closing. We are seeing actions across the nation that looks like at least the states, companies, and cities are taking this seriously and finally taking action with social distancing. It seems scary but really it is a band-aid that has to be ripped off in order to turn things around. China is looking better for it.

Some people might stress out at school closures. Most of us are smart enough here to know that these closures are the way to go. Our local school closures has reduced my anxiety a lot. Maybe the way the USA (other than White House) is finally getting serious may bring TSLA up a bit tomorrow.