Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SoGA Fan Club]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but lowering the factory from 10k to 2500 workers may have a bright spot in the end. If Tesla is able to find ways to be even more efficient, they may find they can produce half as many cars with 1/4 the workforce. It's a good opportunity to get more lean, and discover which jobs/people are not really needed.

I'm willing to bet that "production per person" (yes, I made up the metric just now) goes up tremendously once they have done it for a few weeks. Heck, they may one day reach the same production level.

I remember reading a book - I don't recall the name or any details - that explained how GM did an experiment at one of their transmission factories. They decided to see if they could use incentives to increase production. Someone had the idea that instead of mandating hours and building all they could, instead set a goal of units built and everyone got to go home early when the goal was met (with pay for a full day). It was WILDLY successful. Management kept upping the target, but eventually, the workers could meet the goals and still leave early. However, eventually the union got wind of it and complained. GM stopped the test and put the old system back in place. Production again fell to what it had been previously.

Point is, this could actually be a very good thing for Tesla. Imagine if a month or 2 from now, production was at 50% of the pre-reduction numbers. Imagine in 6 months if production was back to normal levels.

It truly is shocking what people can accomplished with the right motivation.

 

[ZeApelido]

On a related note, Covid-19 testing has finally accelerated massively in the U.S.:

Coronavirus numbers by state

View attachment 523366​

Note the last line and the "Negative" column: the negatives/tests ratio is now 9.5x - which is roughly the ratio South Korea used for their successful containment and tracing efforts.

Crude mortality rate has halved from 2.7% to 1.4%, due to the better testing coverage. With more testing I'd expect it to drop further, assuming ICU capacity is holding up ...

Growth rate is still around 25%, which is the early exponential phase.

Macros will I believe react to this U.S. outbreak data very directly.

The outbreak is worse than I thought.

Suddenly there 6 new American states out of the blue.

Exponential growth and we will end up with a few hundred more soon.

This is worrisome.

 

[dl003]

It's time to look at 2020 guidance for model V(entilator)
V3RY S3XY CARS

 

[Unpilot]

Ford to stop it's dividend.

Ford's stock falls as dividend likely to be suspended, analyst says

 

[KarenRei]

It would be difficult for the county to allow car assembly when it is so far removed from the intent of the order.

What should not be done is shut down the global economy. Because there is a cost on the head of every individual, an actuarial cost of life, and - in countless fields - money is literally exchanged for human lives based on the values chosen. If you shut down the global economy, you rob the money supply, and in turn, you kill people. A normal year sees 58 million deaths. To any of these "full shutdown" people, I ask, how much do you want to crank that number up by destroying the global economy?

To put it another way: how does the quality and longevity of life look in, say, Haiti? Or Afghanistan? Or the Republic of Congo? And even they have some economic activity ongoing.

There is however a huge difference between "not shutting down the global economy" and "doing nothing". There should be onerous requirements on companies about sterilization and social distancing of employees (and customers). If a company cannot afford to do them, then yes, that company should be shut down. But if the financial activity justifies the isolation costs, then no, it shouldn't be.

I'm deeply bothered by the fact that people seem to be focused on the wrong issues. Shutting down companies where there's proportionally low risks of transmission? Yes, at the drop of a hat! Doing nothing about people cramming into lines at grocery stores, or long crowded "CDC health survey lines" at airports, or all of the people who don't have to work crowding at parks, beaches, etc, or hosting block parties? For god's sake, put your effort into policing that sort of thing, not shutting down the global economy.

 

[Pras]

Seems Giga Berlin is moving along well. Earth work going on and soon we may start to see construction.

Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4 on Twitter

 

[JBRR]

Ford to stop it's dividend.

CNBC talking about how looks like Tesla is in the best liquidity situation of all the US autos... Oh how the tables have turned

 

[MartinAustin]

...and... TSLA has jumped $15 in pre-market

Where is that Moody's upgrade...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Isn't it funny that many shorts were pushed out on the way up, with a (huge) loss. And now that they could have profited from the TSLA drop many of them are without a short position. That has to hurt.

 

[dl003]

I don't disagree, but it was never looking hopeless to me. But as far as your experimental drugs... well, I have friends that did that in the 1960's, and it didn't seem to do them much good...

Shouldn't discussions of when prices will recover include a discussion of oil prices? That's probably a bigger factor than the virus in the recent drops, no?

I meant hopeless as in hope for a corrective course of action. We knew lockdowns had to end but we didn't know when and how. Now we think we know. "Maybe if we make enough ventilators, not as many people have to die" "Maybe if we get checks we won't be out on the streets" It's still just maybe but it gives people hope that'll last at least till hospitals are overrun. This is where I place my hope. That the US will not be like Italy. I need some of that exp. drugs right about now.

 

[Unpilot]

So Elon used to say only two car company's have not gone bankrupt...that will be one soon.

 

[vikings123]

Isn't it funny that many shorts were pushed out on the way up, with a (huge) loss. And now that they could have profited from the TSLA drop many of them are without a short position. That has to hurt.

I'm pretty sure some of them got back in. I think we might be seeing some of the shorts covering today based on the pre-market action.

 

[sparcs]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but lowering the factory from 10k to 2500 workers may have a bright spot in the end. If Tesla is able to find ways to be even more efficient, they may find they can produce half as many cars with 1/4 the workforce. It's a good opportunity to get more lean, and discover which jobs/people are not really needed.

We don't know if Tesla will be producing any cars out of Fremont soon. They are talking about a step down of employees to 2500. The Sheriff may be insisting that car production would violate the orders from the local authorities. The only way to know is if people are seeing factory output in the parking lots there. I doubt Tesla is going to advertise that they are producing vehicles.

Suppliers are going to ramp down too so that will take some time to ramp back up. It's hard to put a great short term spin on this of any kind. Just be glad we have long time horizons on the stock. Last year was way worse for TSLA than this.

 

[Fact Checking]

Will we get tree-fiddy again?

Just for the sake of old times?

(Just kidding. Direction looks good so far.)

 

[electracity]

CNBC talking about how looks like Tesla is in the best liquidity situation of all the US autos... Oh how the tables have turned

Telsa could very well emerge in a stronger relative competitive position. But for the next few years their position will still be like being the healthiest inmate at the leaper colony. Amazon, on the other hand, has critically important businesses today - sales and delivery of necessary goods, AWS, and even Audible. Has an almost unlimited market with the ability to easy hire new employees.

 

[Bunky]

What should not be done is shut down the global economy. Because there is a cost on the head of every individual, an actuarial cost of life, and - in countless fields - money is literally exchanged for human lives based on the values chosen. If you shut down the global economy, you rob the money supply, and in turn, you kill people. A normal year sees 58 million deaths. To any of these "full shutdown" people, I ask, how much do you want to crank that number up by destroying the global economy?

To put it another way: how does the quality and longevity of life look in, say, Haiti? Or Afghanistan? Or the Republic of Congo? And even they have some economic activity ongoing.

There is however a huge difference between "not shutting down the global economy" and "doing nothing". There should be onerous requirements on companies about sterilization and social distancing of employees. If a company cannot afford to do them, then yes, that company should be shut down. But if the financial activity justifies the isolation costs, then no, it shouldn't be.

I'm deeply bothered by the fact that people seem to be focused on the wrong issues. Shutting down companies where there's proportionally low risks of transmission? Yes, at the drop of a hat! Doing nothing about people cramming into lines at grocery stores, or long crowded "CDC health survey lines" at airports, or all of the people who don't have to work crowding at parks, beaches, etc, or hosting block parties? For god's sake, put your effort into policing that sort of thing, not shutting down the global economy.

Totally agree. The estimated economic impact of this could be up to $3 trillion based on estimates I’ve seen. At 9,285 deaths so far, that is about $320 million per death. Each death is tragic but something has gone terribly wrong here in terms of preparedness and reaction. (Example for context, numbers are a snapshot).

 

[KarenRei]

Ford to stop it's dividend.

Ford's stock falls as dividend likely to be suspended, analyst says

"BREAKING: Ford Motor to borrow $15.4B to offset production shutdown, company suspend dividend and withdraws guidance for 2020."

$FQ

 

[Johnny Ma]

I'm deeply bothered by the fact that people seem to be focused on the wrong issues. Shutting down companies where there's proportionally low risks of transmission? Yes, at the drop of a hat! Doing nothing about people cramming into lines at grocery stores, or long crowded "CDC health survey lines" at airports, or all of the people who don't have to work crowding at parks, beaches, etc, or hosting block parties? For god's sake, put your effort into policing that sort of thing, not shutting down the global economy.

One of my worries is that we will look back when this is over and all of the politicians and folks promoting panic will declare victory because of their actions. In my area, panic created enormous crowds in grocery stores and people spent way more time around strangers, in close contact than they normally do. I don't know how to quantify it, but I believe transmission was greatly increased for the first few days.

My point is, I fear we won't learn from our mistakes.

 

[JRP3]

Uncle Jack is back in the market. Says everyone is freaking out over nothing and stocks will shoot back up quickly when we get tired of hearing about the flu.

Jack proving once again that he can be a real idiot at times.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Ford to stop it's dividend.

Ford's stock falls as dividend likely to be suspended, analyst says

When will it be shorted? 3.2.1...