Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

That's all true except you left out one pertinent fact: That Tesla could have sold every car produced, without dropping prices, had they shipped them to the proper markets in time. In other words, the biggest factor by far was the untimely switch to International sales. Before Q1, not a single Model 3 had been shipped overseas. Except for a handful of samples.

That's Tesla's wave. They couldn't produce overseas vehicles before the end of Q4 18 as there was a mad rush for vehicles in the US before the tax credit ran out. Then they produced as many vehicles as they could for export until they hit the transportation window limit. I.e. they were bookended with regard to their export vehicle production. They only made SR+ for the US in Q1 19 because they had to. The above fact isn't that pertinent as it couldn't be achieved.

 

[dw4ngg]

TSLA currently up 0.5% and the S&P 500 down ~4%.. who disagreed with my post about divergence between relatively stronger vs. weaker stocks?

 

[BornToFly]

I called them and they said they had problems with several trades that day. They are looking into and will see if there is anything they can do to make it right.....

Final follow up. They said the market halt last Monday caused extreme market volatility. They said the very short spike was real and there is nothing they can do about it.... Don't use market orders when the market is hitting stop triggers....

 

[jhm]

@jhm a minor correction lest it be repeated. EM did not say "make" either masks or ventilators this week. He said "will have". Later he discussed collaboration with Medtronics on manufacturing vents and said it would be several weeks.

Thanks. His language is open to interpretation on the ventilators. What would be the point in Tesla sourcing ventilators from another maker just to redistribute them? Only making them would actually increase the supply of ventilators.

 

[StealthP3D]

TSLA currently up 0.5% and the S&P 500 down ~4%.. who disagreed with my post about divergence between relatively stronger vs. weaker stocks?

I agree with that, now that the initial dust has settled it will become a stock picker's market. A lot of stocks still have a lot of long-term downside that is still not fully recognized while a few were beat up with the rest without good reason. Fortunately, we have all picked a good one here with TSLA. I do think the Federal stimulus package will distort the market as it becomes more clear what it will be. First to the upside, particularly for stocks most likely to benefit, then to the downside as it's approved and reality sets in. The only way I see avoiding another bloodbath in the market, in general, is if CV data starts to indicate it's running it's course sooner rather than later. I expect Tesla to be one of the leaders coming out of the bloodbath based on strong results out of China and other potential good news. Since it's not in the SPX, it might be a stealth rise against the tide.

That said, I do think it's a high probability that we make a second trip into the $300's before the Production and Delivery Report is out at the beginning of April. Not a big deal, that's just the way these things tend to go. It could be avoided with some fundamental good news but I'm not expecting that in the short-term.

 

[jerry33]

Thanks. His language is open to interpretation on the ventilators. What would be the point in Tesla sourcing ventilators from another maker just to redistribute them? Only making them would actually increase the supply of ventilators.

Speed. The (presumably Chinese) manufacturer may not have North American distribution channels set up.

 

[Tim S]

Thanks. His language is open to interpretation on the ventilators. What would be the point in Tesla sourcing ventilators from another maker just to redistribute them? Only making them would actually increase the supply of ventilators.

My interpretation... Tesla can get ventilators this week from a source in China. Tesla will donate them to US hospitals, like they did with masks in LA and Seattle.

Meanwhile, Tesla and/or SpaceX will work on making ventilators, perhaps in collaboration with Medtronic.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The reason he was right to bring SR+ forward is because, at that specific time, Tesla couldn't sell the enough LRs at the required price in the US. Do you really think he decided to sell near 0 margin vehicles for a couple of months to be a good guy? Why did he shut down all the Tesla shops at the same time? I doubt you could ever find a time he sold products at breakeven when he could have been selling others at good margins, he is militant about margins as he should be. It was clearly a necessity at the time.

Arguing it is a TSLAQ argument is a straw man.

Don't listen to me

Do you think the following are insufficient to explain this? Because I think the following are sufficient to explain it:
1 -- tax credit pullforward of demand (well documented phenomenon) means they were running above steady-state US demand in Q4, and are runinng below steady-state US demand in Q1
2 -- The $35K model was a longstanding promise and the company's credibility depended upon actually getting it out the door, preferably before the $3750 tax credit goes away.

Yes, I believe Q1 is essentially a blip due to filling the pipeline *and* the tax credit pullforward effect. However, I think Musk finally took a good look at the stores and said "We are spending how much on these and how much value are they adding" and the answers were "a lot" and "very little". I mean, I may be biased because I've actually been saying that for years.

Tesla definitely doesn't have as much cash as they would like; there's no cash for starting a European Gigafactory or a Model Y Factory or a Semi Factory at the moment. They should have enough to expand service (I do know this is happening; and the wait times for spare parts have dropped by fixing the logistics) and Superchargers.

Well, in Q1 Tesla also had:

• The big U.S. tax cliff hangover with very low January and February deliveries,
• International Model 3 customers who were far away and were served via logistics pathways used for the first time and partially botched,
• A Polar Vortex, a government shutdown and a NASDAQ crash - which hurt U.S. demand too,
• Very low S/X deliveries which have still not recovered to the 20-25k baseline.

In Q1 they could have done better, but let's not sugarcoat it: demand limits were clearly showing - not just supply limits.

 

[ABCTG]

Sold another TSLA JUN 2022 100 PUT option today in my taxable account.

It pays me $2000 with a margin requirement of $3040. Approximately 28% interest per year if not assigned.

Am keeping enough $$ to cover assignment if necessary.

If TSLA goes down to $100 and the option is assigned, then each share will cost $80

Still monitoring JUN 2022 LEAP CALLS, if they get cheaper, will start buying.

Not buying any TSLA shares yet.

Even if things are improving in China, I'm waiting for C19 wave to cross the US first, if it's bad, with large number of hospital bed shortages it will drag down all stocks regardless IMHO



Sold 1 TSLA Jun 17 2022 100.0 Put @ 20

 

[dww12]

Here's an idea for addressing the problem of a few coronavirus posts warranting an appearance in the main investor's thread. If a post exceeds a certain number of likes and loves during its first 24 hours posted, let's say 10, that post could be reproduced in the main investor thread by a mod and shared with the greater investor community. A link to the post in the coronavirus thread would be included and ALL responses to that post should take place in the coronavirus thread, rather than in the main investor thread.

Looking at today's posts, one would qualify. It is this post by @avoigt . Having that post appear in the main investor thread would be useful to us investors and wouldn't clog up the thread. OTOH, we don't need the other 5 pages of coronavirus posts and replies (except those posts that will also exceed 10 likes and loves) added to the main thread and making navigation that much tougher.

I think it would work. I tip my hat to the hard-working mods as well as to extremely valuable members such as @KarenRei and @Fact Checking .

Or add an “off topic” rating. 10 or more and it’s removed. Get 10 or more posts removed and you are removed or timed out. Should make mods’ job a lot easier too.

 

[jhm]

Thanks. His language is open to interpretation on the ventilators. What would be the point in Tesla sourcing ventilators from another maker just to redistribute them? Only making them would actually increase the supply of ventilators.

The following implies that both Tesla and SpaceX will be making ventilators.

While this makes Tesla an essential business, it does not extend to auto parts. So making ventilators does not enable Tesla to keep making autos too.

 

[Ipe]

Tesla search on these 4 vehicles has dropped 30% in the last month.

Could you plot “toilet paper” in the same graph? People are scared, their attention shifts. I bet even “sex” took a plunge in searches. But when fear subsides, lust will return.

 

[jhm]

My interpretation... Tesla can get ventilators this week from a source in China. Tesla will donate them to US hospitals, like they did with masks in LA and Seattle.

Meanwhile, Tesla and/or SpaceX will work on making ventilators, perhaps in collaboration with Medtronic.

I see that. But why can't hospitals just buy directly from Chinese makers?

 

[Singuy]

TSLA currently up 0.5% and the S&P 500 down ~4%.. who disagreed with my post about divergence between relatively stronger vs. weaker stocks?

It's a matter of industry vs tech today. Tech is keeping the economy afloat while old school type of companies are falling off a cliff. My portfolio is tech heavy and was a pretty green day for me, not just Tesla.

 

[Lessmog]

Do we have @KarenRei address? Do they have Tiffs Treats in Iceland?

If I didn't "know" that she is a veggitarian, I might propose a peek at @bonnie 's goodie baking contest thread: Bonnie 'Channel Your Inner Introvert & Stay Home' on Twitter
I also know Karen is on Twitter ( Nafnlaus (@enn_nafnlaus) | Twitter ) though not sure how responsive she might feel right now to ouvertures coming from TMC.

 

[UncaNed]

I regret that I don't understand how that is supposed to work. Who does the work of "shrinking" a post? If you're suggesting a change to the forum software, forget it... our (moderators') requests usually go unanswered, and that is just for simple stuff like changing the boilerplate messages that so many people get offended by. If you are suggesting manual edits by humans, it's an order of magnitude more work than moderators were already doing.

Forum software change entirely. Nothing manual. I assumed - apparently wrongly - that TMC forum owners were energetic, nimble software/tech/web design folks*.

I'd gladly buy a $1,000 annual support level upgrade that included my idea or something close to it that makes MOD's lives easier too... But would that arrangement be a poke in the eye to those providing the actual PapaFox-Karen-Fact-Checking-level content (and so many others!) for free...??? I dunno.

*Edit - I am eternally grateful for this forum, even as-is! Please don't mistake my suggestions as a complaint of any kind.

 

[Lessmog]

There is a donation link in this earlier post.

Yes, but that should obviously be exclusively for seed cakes

 

[CyberDutchie]

Ok you guys put your head in the sand and pretend everything is rosy.

I'll leave you with this

"Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who is regarded as one of the best disease modelers in the world, produced a sophisticated model with a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the United States.


I asked Ferguson for his best case. “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said."

Opinion | The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst

Here is a respected scientist with a completely different opinion:

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

The point is: you can pick your researcher or scientist opinion to promote your doomsday scenarios. I can do the same for painting a much more rosy picture. Whatever the course will be, history will tell.

 

[jerry33]

I see that. But why can't hospitals just buy directly from Chinese makers?

Again, it's speed, and in addition it's quality. You need to purchase them from a source that is known to deliver the correct specs. Like everywhere, there are unscrupulous places that will ship substandard items, so any new supplier has to be vetted. Getting goods directly from China (or any other country for that matter) assumes that the hospitals have staff that are familiar with obtaining goods from that country.

 

[wipster]

Yes, but that should obviously be exclusively for seed cakes

Would be great if you could plant them and Model 3's or Y's would grow... would really reduce cogs!