Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Boeing shares halted after announcing it will suspend operations at Puget Sound facilities

Phil LeBeau said apparently one of Boeing's Union workers passed away yesterday from Covid-19. No other details provided.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Do we have @KarenRei address? Do they have Tiffs Treats in Iceland?

Checking on the local options for baked treats..... Can anyone do some detective work on the reforestation thread?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So, we can expect Tesla sales to be flat over the comparable period last year?

Personally, I believe we will see an increase in sales vs. the comparable quarter.

That's a great point to remember, the Q-o-Q bar for 1Q is about as low as it gets! One more thing to cause an algo-spike at earnings.

And let us not forget Panasonic was very likely bottle-necking cell production purposely in 4Q18/1Q19 trying to renegotiate the deal with Tesla. Hence the breakup.

 

[jerry33]

Do we have @KarenRei address? Do they have Tiffs Treats in Iceland?

There is a donation link in this earlier post.

To anyone who wants to donate: I initially tried setting up a GoFundMe as was suggested in the other thread... and then tried Kickstarter... and apparently neither work for people in Iceland. And since they take a chunk of the donations anyway, it's probably easier to just donate at Paypal ([email protected]). Or you could purchase seeds or seedlings directly from a supplier (Lífland, Gróðrarstöðin Mör, Gróðrarstöðin Kjarr, Garðyrkjustöðin Flóra, Garðyrkjustöðin Borg, etc) and I could pick them up. Please post if you donate and indicate if there's any particular aspect you'd like your donation put towards.

 

[skybluecgreen]

They are planning to suspend production at Fremont and Buffalo at end of day today. (This was posted by Tesla 4 days ago so their plans could have changed).

Tesla Operational Update | Tesla, Inc.

"As such, we have decided to temporarily suspend production at our factory in Fremont, from end of day March 23, which will allow an orderly shutdown. Basic operations will continue in order to support our vehicle and energy service operations and charging infrastructure, as directed by the local, state and federal authorities. Our factory in New York will temporarily suspend production as well, except for those parts and supplies necessary for service, infrastructure and critical supply chains. Operations of our others facilities will continue, including Nevada and our service and Supercharging network."

I wonder why 'critical supply chains' was not included in the description of Fremont operations. I was hoping the the 'basic operations' at Fremont would include producing the parts Shanghai needs to continue to produce Model 3s there. Seems like that would fall under the category of critical supply chain.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just took a peek at TSLA LEAPS. Dear lord, the IV is inflating these things beyond anything rational. $72 for $900 strike LEAPS on a stock priced at $420 today? So much for making homerun bets today.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I mean, this is literally basic Economics 101 supply and demand curves.

No, what this is is cherrypicking posts and 20-20 hindsight. Congratulations on your selective perspicacity.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If FactChecking and KarenRei have left for good, I hope they would continue posting on some other forum and would let us know. There would be a sudden influx of new members.

Give it a rest. We have work to do on moderation, but it's inappropriate to poke hosts during a pandemic. People willing to rant about OT stuff(like me for instance ) are a huge part of the problem. Just hit pause for a month.

 

[phantasms]

FWIW I bought into the market heavily today. More TSLA than I’ve had in the past, average cost basis around ~140, and picked up other things I’ve wanted for the past year but had been waiting for a drop. I expect it might go down more but I’m in it for the long haul. If Tesla drops below 400 at any point I’ve got more powder to burn.

 

[BornToFly]

Market order to buy means an order to buy at the best possible price, i.e., at the lowest ask price on the order book at the time your order is received.

If you didn't get the best possible price, you have a valid grievance against your broker. If your broker won't reverse your trade, I would file complaints with the SEC and FINRA, or pursue legal action. What could have happened is that the market maker saw your market order come in, and quickly raised his ask price before the order was executed. That would be illegal.

But keep in mind depth of order book. Your order may have "burned through the order book". If the current offer (ask) on the book was for only one contract, but your market order was to buy 10 contracts, then the broker owes you only one contract at the quoted lowest ask price, and the remaining nine could be executed at whatever higher ask prices were on the order book at the time. There would be nothing illegal about that. That's why you have to be super careful with market orders if liquidity is low (as often the case for options).

I called them and they said they had problems with several trades that day. They are looking into and will see if there is anything they can do to make it right.....

 

[EV Promoter]

Kar-ma

Coronavirus drags car dealers into digital commerce

 

[ZeApelido]

Keep in mind that Google Trends data is normalized for the volume of total searches. With people told to stay home from work, there are probably a lot more searches in general happening.

Example:

Say you have 100 people searching for a Model Y every day. Then they are told to stay home because of the Coronavirus. Now assume the 100 people are still doing their daily search for Model Y but are also searching for Coronavirus. Now it looks like Model Y searches have been cut in half (but they are actually unchanged).

I did not know that. And I would agree that would make a big difference in this case

 

[JRP3]

General thought: Let us all try to raise our posting game, self moderate, and stop trying to beg FC and Karen to come back. I'm fairly sure Karen has made up her mind, FC will do as he sees fit. Also, trying to come up with creative ways to change the software of the board won't work either, nor is it appropriate for this thread. Soldier on with what we have, and try to check your emotions before replying.

 

[Christine69420]

Managing the volume of the Investor's Roundtable thread

This is a general thread on how to manage this megathread. For those with creative ideas.

 

[c041v]

General thought: Let us all try to raise our posting game, self moderate, and stop trying to beg FC and Karen to come back. I'm fairly sure Karen has made up her mind, FC will do as he sees fit. Also, trying to come up with creative ways to change the software of the board won't work either, nor is it appropriate for this thread. Soldier on with what we have, and try to check your emotions before replying.

Thank you for saying this.

I can't believe how fast some have turned to eating each other on this board, or the fragility of certain egos. We've done far worse to ourselves than any short could ever dream of. The loss of those who shall not be named is indeed regrettable, but it is a fact of life on every forum I've been on. Nobody last forever, and I've seen a number of quality folks come and go over the years. I find a lot prevalent posters function at an unsustainable rate, and it becomes a march against time before they or others tire of what seemingly feels like a chore to log on here each day, or hour, or minute and say whatever is on one's mind.

I think long and hard before nearly every post as to whether or not it will improve or detract from the board. As a result, I don't post often and try to learn from others to improve my own knowledge. I thank the many others and the mods that work to keep this place what it is, imperfect as it may be. These are certainly uncertain times, and probably one of the best situations to truly define the strength of your character. Post accordingly.

 

[EV Promoter]

General thought: Let us all try to raise our posting game, self moderate, and stop trying to beg FC and Karen to come back. I'm fairly sure Karen has made up her mind, FC will do as he sees fit. Also, trying to come up with creative ways to change the software of the board won't work either, nor is it appropriate for this thread. Soldier on with what we have, and try to check your emotions before replying.

IMHO if mods can collect all the posts about Karen and FC and about the criticised mods, and move it in a thread where anyone can express their solidarity to both and express their opinion, the main thread will greatly benefit.

 

[JRP3]

IMHO if mods can collect all the posts about Karen and FC and about the criticised mods, and move it in a thread where anyone can express their solidarity to both and express their opinion, the main thread will greatly benefit.

Let's not make more work for the mods. Anyone may start a new thread for that discussion if so motivated.

 

[PeterJA]

Ok you guys put your head in the sand and pretend everything is rosy.

I'll leave you with this

"Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who is regarded as one of the best disease modelers in the world, produced a sophisticated model with a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the United States.


I asked Ferguson for his best case. “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said."

Opinion | The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst

Couldn't read the article because of the paywall.

The US will have over 1 million deaths? China has less than 3,200 deaths so far. What is his prognosis for China?

Folks blocked by the NYT paywall should be aware that @Ellec skipped over a lot of positive information to cherry-pick those scary quotes. I call this irresponsible, and will judge other posts by @Ellec accordingly.

Just a sample of the positive:

“The most important lesson is that the virus can be contained if people are responsible and adhere to certain simple principles,” said Dr. Christopher Willis, a physician in Singapore. “Stay calm. For most people it’s like the common cold.”

Dr. Tom Inglesby, an expert on pandemics at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said, “The fact that Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and China — and to some extent Japan — have all flattened their curves despite having the initial onslaught of cases should give us some hope that we can sort out what they’re doing well and emulate it.”

One encouraging sign is that in Washington State, which had an early outbreak, the number of positive tests appears stable.

The article seems well-balanced and worth reading, so I'm glad @Ellec linked it. Folks using the Safari browser may be able to read it with the Show Reader command.

 

[Papafox]

Here's an idea for addressing the problem of a few coronavirus posts warranting an appearance in the main investor's thread. If a post exceeds a certain number of likes and loves during its first 24 hours posted, let's say 10, that post could be reproduced in the main investor thread by a mod and shared with the greater investor community. A link to the post in the coronavirus thread would be included and ALL responses to that post should take place in the coronavirus thread, rather than in the main investor thread.

Looking at today's posts, one would qualify. It is this post by @avoigt . Having that post appear in the main investor thread would be useful to us investors and wouldn't clog up the thread. OTOH, we don't need the other 5 pages of coronavirus posts and replies (except those posts that will also exceed 10 likes and loves) added to the main thread and making navigation that much tougher.

I think it would work. I tip my hat to the hard-working mods as well as to extremely valuable members such as @KarenRei and @Fact Checking .

 

[CorneliusXX]

That is NOT why Tesla introduced the Model 3 SR+ at the time it chose.

Fremont production capacity was far exceeding GF1's ability to supply LR battery packs, due to Panasonic's slow ramp in 2170 cell production.

It's the same reason Tesla introduced the Medium Range (LeMur) in Nov 2018: lack of bty cells.

Tesla knew that the marginal cost of production for Model 3 was decreasing so quickly that they could introduce the SR+ variant as soon as it reached breakeven, and it would very quickly become profitable as production volume increase. It's chicken and egg economics.

Elon did the right thing for Tesla by bringing in SR+ when he did, dispite EVERY SINGLE THING you unconciously absorb from TSLAQ.

The reason he was right to bring SR+ forward is because, at that specific time, Tesla couldn't sell the enough LRs at the required price in the US. Do you really think he decided to sell near 0 margin vehicles for a couple of months to be a good guy? Why did he shut down all the Tesla shops at the same time? I doubt you could ever find a time he sold products at breakeven when he could have been selling others at good margins, he is militant about margins as he should be. It was clearly a necessity at the time.

Arguing it is a TSLAQ argument is a straw man.