Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ProfTournesol]

I thought he has zero position in Tesla and even wrote about reflecting on the biggest loss of his life. This is his way of reflecting? The dude needs a therapist.

We should not metion him in this forum any more, he is insignificant and should be in the "humor" forum.

 

[Singuy]

This is obviously personal for him. Even if he has no position, he will continue to spew this nonsense for many years to come. My best advise to TSLA investors is to block him and pay zero attention to him. He has literally been wrong about everything over the years, so you will not be missing out in a pertinent bear case that could help your investment thesis.

It's not like he is just some troll who is massively wrong. The guy lost his investors millions. He had seminars with a decent following about shorting Tesla. All his followers lost money. This guy is as bad as they come in the investing world so where is his credibility besides being a meme today? I wouldn't even mention Tesla or be associated with it until the day Tesla files for bankruptcy if it ever comes if I were a normal person who actually cares about reputation.

 

[ZeApelido]

STOP-signs are hard, Karpathy said, and I see that they are still working on it.....
This doesn't give me very much confidence, I mean STOP - signs are pretty elementary thing for driving.

What's harder than a stationary object that's really important not to misdetect or someone might get killed?

 

[HG Wells]

What's harder than a stationary object that's really important not to misdetect or someone might get killed?

 

[scaesare]

Heres a video of Karpathy talking about autopilot & neural net training.

Feeling very bullish after watching the video, especially 24:30 where he talks about starting to use neural nets to learn driving technique. I just can’t see any competitor catching up to Tesla in autonomy.

It was good... and underscored exactly the value of "shadow mode" reporting and how they are using it with "project vacation" to automate training.

The discussion about edge detection via image stitching being better handled by the neural net was also interesting.

Also, only tangentially related, but there's another session at that same conference by Jim Keller (now at Intel but who designed Tesla's FSD computing chip while there) on Moore's law and AI computing specifically...

 

[tschmidty]

View attachment 534739

And if I got a ticket or in an accident at that stop sign, I would 100% either fight the ticket or sue the city for lack of maintenance.

 

[Pezpunk]

And if I got a ticket or in an accident at that stop sign, I would 100% either fight the ticket or sue the city for lack of maintenance.

i mean yeah. that would be the easiest ticket ever to get out of. To be sure, it's still a tragedy if someone was hurt in an accident, but in this case it would be literally the local government's fault, regardless of whether a human or an AI were driving.

 

[BornToFly]

Link to the note: BofA downgrades Tesla to sell on valuation after recet rally TSLA - The Fly

Target drop from $500 to $485,
US premarket price down 0.25%.

Seriously?!? $15?!? Why don't they announce a big downgrade and lower from $500 to $499.99 next time. These attempts at manipulation are laughable.

 

[HG Wells]

Depending on how good the radar is the AI might figure out it could be a stop sign.
With basic maps and winter info the car might stop.

 

[jhm]

He did NOT say Stop Signs are hard. He said that their is a long tail of special circumstances which can occur along with the detection of a stop sign. That's what the training of the neural net does, and why data volume is important, along with the ability to query the fleet for a specific type of detection.

Further, Andrei said that Tesla creates and stores low resolution maps so that the NAV system knows that there is a stop sign at a particular intersection; the task is to find it visually. This is the way humans drive when they are familar with a route.

Confidence is based on understanding. Tesla's approach is rock solid, and like the Matrix, inevitable, Mr. Anderson.

I wonder when Tesla will start giving specific feedback to governments. In many cases, local governments are doing a poor job of maintaining clear road markings and signage. It looks like Tesla could produce catalog of road visibility problems for a local government. Granted Tesla needs technology robust enough to overcome these problems independent of what the local government does. But local governments also have a mandate to maintain roads that can be safely navigated by all drivers. If a stop sign is hard for Tesla to see, chances are that it is hard for many other drivers as well. So publishing a catalog of these problems can enable local governments to do a better job for all, and if necessary, can apply subtle political pressure to do so.

Additionally the auto insurance industry and lawyers would have an interest in these catalogs.

 

[MP3Mike]

And if I got a ticket or in an accident at that stop sign, I would 100% either fight the ticket or sue the city for lack of maintenance.

i mean yeah. that would be the easiest ticket ever to get out of. To be sure, it's still a tragedy if someone was hurt in an accident, but in this case it would be literally the local government's fault, regardless of whether a human or an AI were driving.

I don't know how it is in other states but here in Oregon it is the property owner's responsibility to prevent their trees/shrubs/etc. from blocking visibility of the road and signage. So you would be suing the person who owned that property. (or their insurance.)

 

[Pezpunk]

I don't know how it is in other states but here in Oregon it is the property owner's responsibility to prevent their trees/shrubs/etc. from blocking visibility of the road and signage. So you would be suing the person who owned that property. (or their insurance.)

fair enough ... in my neighborhood, most stop signs are in publicly-maintained areas. not sure if it's the county or HOA board that maintains it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If only we had technical forums/threads to post this stuff in!

 

[LJS22]

I wonder when Tesla will start giving specific feedback to governments. In many cases, local governments are doing a poor job of maintaining clear road markings and signage. It looks like Tesla could produce catalog of road visibility problems for a local government. Granted Tesla needs technology robust enough to overcome these problems independent of what the local government does. But local governments also have a mandate to maintain roads that can be safely navigated by all drivers. If a stop sign is hard for Tesla to see, chances are that it is hard for many other drivers as well. So publishing a catalog of these problems can enable local governments to do a better job for all, and if necessary, can apply subtle political pressure to do so.

Additionally the auto insurance industry and lawyers would have an interest in these catalogs.

This is key. But I suggest Tesla not push it yet. When they are ready to begin Autonomous driving they should go to local counties that will allow it and work with them on what the cars need to be successful. After about a year of autonomy in these places you report the safety numbers publicly and make your case that way nationally that way. That’s a way I see it transpiring

 

[LJS22]

We need to get away from 700 on the upside or they are going to drive us down today

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We need to get away from 700 on the upside or they are going to drive us down today

Meh. Wake me up when we hit $550 or $950.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Meh. Wake me up when we hit $550 or $950.

Same here, around 700 is not good for TSLA. Too much interference.

[edit]
nadaq; up
oil: ip
dow: up
TSLA: down and the only manuf. that will come out of the crisis with a rocket engine at full thrust.

 

[Singuy]

Seriously?!? $15?!? Why don't they announce a big downgrade and lower from $500 to $499.99 next time. These attempts at manipulation are laughable.

Would you be happier if it was a pt of 400 and a sell? Those numbers are just made up playing around with multiples.

 

[Pezpunk]

Investment question: if SpaceX were, hypothetically, to have a catastrophic failure (such as, let's say, a rapid unscheduled disassembly during liftoff) do you all think that would negatively affect Tesla's stock price? Just trying to add up some short-term risk factors.

 

[joh01652]

What's harder than a stationary object that's really important not to misdetect or someone might get killed?

Here’s a funny sign in my town. Car comes to an abrupt emergency stop since the update, gets very confused. Just an example of the many weird corner cases