Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

Looking at the options closing for tomorrow it appears THEY want it under $880. I noticed the last couple days that 880 calls were being pushed. To help with THEIR profits they need to sell a bunch more 850 PUTs so that is what they are doing. I expect this to bounce back up unless THEY f'd up and the bears can get their claws in this.

 

[Sudre]

I'm betting 865 is the Max Pain at this time.

I think you are in the ballpark. I was thinking between 880-870.

 

[strago13]

Not found that in France or UK. Both American and European rest stops can be good or suck. Both can be dirty or clean.

I spent 3 years living in the UK, their proper rest stops (not gas stations) have 100x better food than American ones.

 

[SpeedGoat]

Is amazon using its position to illegally suppress competition?
What’s Elon reference.

As a consumer they are great.
I get price discovery plus quality references from buyers
And much more.

Amazon has been going downhill in my opinion. Their search results are terrible and littered with "sponsored" products that I want nothing to do with. Their reviews have been abused to the point where they are no longer trustworthy, and Amazon as a whole has a giant counterfeit, etc product problem.

Even though I have had prime since they first offered it I have found myself starting to look for alternatives more and more. At least when I buy from Costco I can expect to receive the genuine product.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looking at the options closing for tomorrow it appears THEY want it under $880. I noticed the last couple days that 880 calls were being pushed. To help with THEIR profits they need to sell a bunch more 850 PUTs so that is what they are doing. I expect this to bounce back up unless THEY f'd up and the bears can get their claws in this.

$885 I think for the close tomorrow. My theory is that they don't want a repeat of last week where the SP escaped from them on Friday, so beat it down now with the macros - easier to push it up if needed tomorrow.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - half hour ago: Tesla Model 3 is the top-selling car in the U.K. for a second month but as showrooms reopen it could be overtaken

Of course those who bought Model 3's will be seen on the roads and showing them to their friends. That could spoil the reopening of competing dealerships.

 

[Cherry Wine]

$885 I think for the close tomorrow. My theory is that they don't want a repeat of last week where the SP escaped from them on Friday, so beat it down now with the macros - easier to push it up if needed tomorrow.

You must have done well on your covered calls this week.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - half hour ago: Tesla quietly acquired automated manufacturing firm to design factories - Electrek

Only 10 miles from where I live.

 

[Drax7]

Amazon has been going downhill in my opinion. Their search results are terrible and littered with "sponsored" products that I want nothing to do with. Their reviews have been abused to the point where they are no longer trustworthy, and Amazon as a whole has a giant counterfeit, etc product problem.

Even though I have had prime since they first offered it I have found myself starting to look for alternatives more and more. At least when I buy from Costco I can expect to receive the genuine product.

Going downhill while sales are growing at 20% plus per year in and out.
There are always malcontents.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

So Elon was literally off Twitter for 2 days. Yeah that's about as long as he can stay away, huh?

 

[InDaClub]

So Elon was literally off Twitter for 2 days. Yeah that's about as long as he can stay away, huh?

Oh, the humanity.

 

[kengchang]

Oh, the humanity.

 

[RobStark]

So Elon was literally off Twitter for 2 days. Yeah that's about as long as he can stay away, huh?

About as long as I can stay off of TMC.

If I try really really hard.

 

[Zero CO2]

It is wrong to think that all businesses, market segments, and people are impacted the same way in any depression/recession.

In the Great Depression of the 1930's, Hollywood grew enormously as movies now had sound and were an affordable entertainment option. Proctor & Gamble stepped up advertising, including producing its own radio shows, and kept sales up while competitors slumped.

Today's there a big difference between running an airline and running a video conferencing company, between running retail stores and a SaaS business. Between running a movie theater and SVOD. We've seen a huge shift in how people work and live, and while things will not stay the way they are today, they also won't go back to what they were previously. The shift to virtual and online environments was happening anyway, and the lockdowns have accelerated that shift.

There are winners and losers and it's incorrect to characterize what's happening today as affecting everyone and every business the same.

All great points ... but i am still waiting for TSLA to go on sale before adding to my long position... time will tell if this is a smart move...

no one on this board has convinced me otherwise ... i do need to increase my purchase price points on my limit orders to reflect last couple months ... still kicking myself for not going all in back in March /early April .. we will probably never see those prices again

my SP Model for YE 2020 is $650-$750 range so I will hold fast till we see this range again

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

All great points ... but i am still waiting for TSLA to go on sale before adding to my long position... time will tell if this is a smart move...

no one on this board has convinced me otherwise ... i do need to increase my purchase price points on my limit orders to reflect last couple months ... still kicking myself for not going all in back in March /early April .. we will probably never see those prices again

my SP Model for YE 2020 is $650-$750 range so I will hold fast till we see this range again

If you're modeling a 650-750 range for end of this year, I would like to know what your estimates are for Q3 and Q4 when it comes to Tesla's business. You must have some very conservative expectations for Q3/Q4

 

[Zero CO2]

True. But even more telling is that phase 2 doesn't look anything like previous bear markets either (they just forgot to add the most recent market moves to the illustration). Actually, this graph came from an article published on April 26th and yet it fails to show the S&P climb out of the hole between April 21 and April 24. After that, it continues climbing for the next 5 weeks. That makes this chart stale and shows that it represents a failed theory.

Market Stalls, Is The Bear Market Rally Over?

I regret using this chart ... i forgot how anal we alll are on this thread ...and that is a good thing

My real point is we may be in a bear rally ... and this was an unfortunate chart to use ... I still think that is a distinct possibility ...

and I am waiting for TSLA to go "on sale again before adding to my position... ... this may also be an unfortunate decision but time will tell

 

[Zero CO2]

If you're modeling a 650-750 range for end of this year, I would like to know what your estimates are for Q3 and Q4 when it comes to Tesla's business. You must have some very conservative expectations for Q3/Q4

If you're modeling a 650-750 range for end of this year, I would like to know what your estimates are for Q3 and Q4 when it comes to Tesla's business. You must have some very conservative expectations for Q3/Q4

i am not smart enough to estimate quarters ... 500K-550K for the year ASP 48-$50K... GM around 22-25% ... i played around with variables a bit and this is what i am coming up with.. I could be off ... i cant see adjusting my view until Q2 deliveries are in

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

i am not smart enough to estimate quarters ... 500K-550K for the year ASP 48-$50K... GM around 22-25% ... i played around with variables a bit and this is what i am coming up with.. I could be off ... i cant see adjusting my view until Q2 deliveries are in

So to get to those numbers, which I think Tesla will hit it in terms of vehicle P/D for 2020, Tesla will need to make and sell around 175k-200k in Q4. That's likely a quarter of revenue that will be 10-11 billion. Nearly double the revenue of Q1 with very likely higher margins in the same year.......Q1 in which the share price was higher than your 650-750 range for EOY 2020 share price.

Definitely everyone should have their own strategy for when they buy and such, but the logic doesn't add up there.

 

[troym]

I would have thought there would have been so much US demand for even the LR/P models that Canada would be a ways off yet. Interesting.

I would have thought there would have been so much US demand for even the LR/P models that Canada would be a ways off yet. Interesting.

UncaNed. Instead of disagreeing with my posts, do you have anything worthwhile to contribute to the conversation? See responses by starfoxisdown and azri11 to see how it’s done...

 

[dl003]

All great points ... but i am still waiting for TSLA to go on sale before adding to my long position... time will tell if this is a smart move...

no one on this board has convinced me otherwise ... i do need to increase my purchase price points on my limit orders to reflect last couple months ... still kicking myself for not going all in back in March /early April .. we will probably never see those prices again

my SP Model for YE 2020 is $650-$750 range so I will hold fast till we see this range again

Are you selling slightly OTM weekly puts while you wait?