Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

So proud of my little guy TSLA. Taking this news with a shrug. *sniff* They grow up so fast.

god i wish i could attend 4 meetings at once and be hailed as a genius for it.

Nowadays being able to avoid 4 meetings makes you a genius.

 

[lklundin]

Karen, the options issue should be sent to the SEC for investigation into insider trading. Ask them to investigate CR and the news organizations it contacted for market manipulation and insider trading.

I find that Karen was clever to first give CR the opportunity to detail in public and in writing how exactly they went about selectively disseminating their material, market moving information.

 

[scaesare]

Perhaps Musk will get a slap on the wrist (he can afford it) and get told to pre-approve anything containing numbers.

I'll LOL when he just spells the numbers out on his next tweet.

 

[ZachF]

I'll LOL when he just spells the numbers out on his next tweet.

He should just add "plus or minus an order of magnitude" to all his tweets.

 

[Lessmog]

The hydrogen proponents keep saying that hydrogen will be made with little or no electricity. Magic fungus or some such.

So, a year late and a century or so after my high school chem class, but I do believe H2 would classify as a pretty potent acid. Just sayin', as they say.

 

[lklundin]

Side note: confirmation that Vicki Salvador was let go for violating NDA by sharing production numbers:
View attachment 380751

That would not surprise me (as I already wrote while she was tweeting out internal information).

However, would Tesla need to explicitly state why they decided to fire an employee under the laws in California?

I could imagine that could increase their risk of being sued for wrongfully firing that person.

Maybe she is just hoping to goad Musk into tweeting something she can use against Tesla.

 

[CharlesSr]

With the SEC's FUD having backfired,
Jennifer Sensiba on Twitter

I would like to make a point as to why it may take a little longer for Elon Musk to reveal Model Y.

During the Model 3 reveal he said that it would cost 35k $ (in its most basic configuration) - without incentives.

Later he had to (honestly) explain that Tesla would need to sell more expensive variants first (in order to e.g. not die last summer).

I think until there is a Model 3 for sale for 35k $ it would be problematic for him to reveal a Model Y together with pricing.

If he did it in a few weeks with the cheapest Model 3 costing 42k $, people would be thinking "the cheapest Model 3 costs 20% more than he promised, what about this new one?"

If he reveals the Y without pricing, then that would also be awkward - and rule out the kick-off of an meaningful reservation/order process.

Even adjusting the current Model 3 price for 3 years of inflation would be less than optimal because people would still ask themselves "but how much will it cost when I finally get a chance to buy it?"

So I am not holding my breath for a Model Y reveal.

Not sure if I fully follow your logic here. Can't Elon just say "Model Y will start at the price of $..., but we will sell the better equipped models that costing more first, just as we did with Model 3"? Tesla has been operating like this for all their cars. Remember Model S starting at $50k? Compared to all the FUDs about Tesla nowadays, those potential concerns you raised about pricing are nothing to worry about.

Elon will probably not re-schedule Model Y reveal for little things like that.

 

[Pezpunk]

Nowadays being able to avoid 4 meetings makes you a genius.

oh i assume that's basically what i'd be doing by "attending" them all simultaneously.

 

[CorneliusXX]

You are a freaking hero. The responses by CR were remarkably flaccid. "I'm sorry but your question is too well prepared, I was only expecting unprepared questions."

And the best part: CR puts out tweets and special releases regarding the Model 3. Then in the AMA asks whether you have questions about anything other than Tesla.

You can't have it both ways, CR. If you single out a brand or model, be prepared to face a lot of questions regarding that one brand or model.

Seriously. There is a non-zero chance that @KarenRei gets this guy fired. Sucks for him, but I'd probably get fired if i presented a similar level of work to my boss.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I sure hope the people here on TMC that bought some Nio are taking the 3-day rally as a chance to quietly exit the building We're talking 10.5 billion market value for 400 million in revenues(based on expectations of upcoming quarterly earnings)

In all seriousness, I can't think of a single reason why someone would own Nio over Tesla AT their current valuations. Based on every metric(revenue, margins, profits, etc...) Tesla is ahead of Nio. The one except that can be pointed out is technically Nio's revenue growth rate percentage is higher than Tesla's but of course it's going to be higher since they only did 200 million last quarter. Actual revenue growth, not percentage, is ridiculously higher for Tesla. There's also the fact that Nio's market is pretty much only China/Asia while Tesla is in all major markets. Another big one for me is I think once Giga 3 is operational and Model Y is show and close to initial production, Tesla is going to eat Nio's lunch.......and breakfast and dinner. Nio's eating for free essentially because of the tariffs and subsidies that Tesla has to pay or doesn't get. I sure hope Nio and its investors are prepared for that change in competition at the beginning of 2020.

Also, the fact that they're saying their batteries are more efficient than Tesla's while not including the Model 3 shows they're just as scared of Tesla as every other auto maker.

To sum it up, there's either two scenarios

- Either Nio is wildly overvalued based on Tesla's valuation or Tesla is wildly undervalued based on Nio's valuation. Either scenario, the better returns are with Tesla.

 

[lklundin]

Today, @KarenRei won the Internet. Poor Jake was left whimpering "Do you have any questions on anything besides Tesla? I'd be happy to answer." So sad.

Lastly, I want the Karen Living Room Sofa option on my next update!

This corresponds to an actual story from the Army (of an undisclosed country), that had to procure bullet proof vests for its combat personnel. They had compiled this long list of requirements, hard and easy ones:
not too expensive, not too heavy, not too rigid, not too warm, preferably with pockets that would work well with the already issued field kit, should allow for compact storage when not in use, etc. etc.

In the first iteration it was concluded that all the requirements with the exception of only one was met by the field jacket...

 

[ZachF]

Not sure if I fully follow your logic here. Can't Elon just say "Model Y will start at the price of $..., but we will sell the better equipped models that costing more first, just as we did with Model 3"? Tesla has been operating like this for all their cars. Remember Model S starting at $50k? Compared to all the FUDs about Tesla nowadays, those potential concerns you raised about pricing are nothing to worry about.

Since it is going to share much with the 3, just say "Because it is larger, the Model Y will cost $5,000 more than a similarly optioned Model 3" or something along those lines.

 

[lklundin]

Interesting side note. He is a guest speaker at the Vegas conference he ridiculed in The Big Short this week.

I do find that interesting, can you elaborate?

 

[Zaxxon]

Another 95 Norway-registered Teslas today. February is now at 703 with two days left. That ranks as the third-best non-quarter-ending month yet. Tomorrow it'll move to #2. It'll likely finish just shy of becoming #1, behind Nov 2017 which is a seasonally higher period. March will sure be interesting.

 

[lklundin]

With all the activity, I am unsure if this is old or new news:

Tesla's Musk ordered to respond to SEC contempt motion by March 11 | Reuters

- at least the March 11 deadline was new to me...

 

[Thekiwi]

You're missing one big thing here - the 350-500k EC guidance was for M3 alone, in Elon's tweet he was referring to S3X production.

So assuming 100k SX you can modify the EC statement to 450-600k, then to say "around 500k", sounds about right to me.

I would remind everyone (regardless of how this SEC contempt allegation ends up) that Elon just last week reiterated that Tesla 2019 guidance is still for 400,000 estimated car deliveries

Please everyone don’t start expecting 450k-600k cars in 2019.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

With the SEC's FUD having backfired,
Jennifer Sensiba on Twitter

I would like to make a point as to why it may take a little longer for Elon Musk to reveal Model Y.

During the Model 3 reveal he said that it would cost 35k $ (in its most basic configuration) - without incentives.

Later he had to (honestly) explain that Tesla would need to sell more expensive variants first (in order to e.g. not die last summer).

I think until there is a Model 3 for sale for 35k $ it would be problematic for him to reveal a Model Y together with pricing.

If he did it in a few weeks with the cheapest Model 3 costing 42k $, people would be thinking "the cheapest Model 3 costs 20% more than he promised, what about this new one?"

If he reveals the Y without pricing, then that would also be awkward - and rule out the kick-off of an meaningful reservation/order process.

Even adjusting the current Model 3 price for 3 years of inflation would be less than optimal because people would still ask themselves "but how much will it cost when I finally get a chance to buy it?"

So I am not holding my breath for a Model Y reveal.

There's a simpler reason: Tesla needs people to buy Model 3s, not wait for the Model Y..

 

[CorneliusXX]

I do find that interesting, can you elaborate?

Not sure how familiar you are with the world of securitisation, however there are 3-4 major conferences each year in sunny locations where investors can meet with loan underwriters, deal arranges and the litany of hangers on who are needed in the industry.

The SFIG conference in Las Vegas was portrayed as a hotbed of corruption and stupidity in the movie "The Big Short" due to the obliviousness of attendees ahead of the GFC and the shameful abdication of responsibility done by those with oversight in order to get better jobs in the private sector. Remarkably, it did not close down. It just became less popular for a few years.

Given the current circumstances, the writer Michael Lewis was suggested to write the book around the stupidity and corruption enveloping the TSLAQ and SEC enforcement world.

 

[Thekiwi]

You know what I find amusing?

After Q4 earnings all the news coverage was about profits in Q4/Q1 and Deepak retiring. There was basically zero coverage on the good Tesla 2019 outlook guidance.

And now, because of all the SEC shenanigans today - there is wall to wall financial news coverage about Tesla 2019 car production growth expectations - which are probably a surprise to a lot of non-Tesla investors. Maybe a reason for the heavy buying activity today.

 

[KarenRei]

Interesting. I was so excited about Tesla coming to Iceland that I didn't even read the rest of the article that I linked early in the day!

It says that the person who established the Icelandic branch of Tesla, David Jon Feinstein, is the director of international commerce and new markets at Tesla, and apparently he's recently been registered as the manager of new Tesla branches in Poland and the Czech Republic, too. So I assume that it sounds like both of these countries should be getting Tesla branches soon too, not just Iceland

ED: One more tidbit: it says that "He confirmed that Tesla will open here in the country and added that more information about their activities should be expected shortly". Now, I wonder what they're waiting for?