Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MaChiMiB]

OT after hours
So that Nikola video:

When driving in a parking lot:
View attachment 562114 View attachment 562113
The fuel cell was putting out 97kW
The pack was putting out 135kW (199.5 x 676)
Load > generation

When stopped:
View attachment 562112 View attachment 562111
The fuel cell was putting out 95kW
The pack was putting out 80kW (119.5 x 673.5)
Load < generation
However, if the fuel cell was charging the battery, the BMS reported current should be negative (like during their regen demonstration).
It did manage to gain 0.8% SOC during the drive. Or rather, it gained 0.4% on the drive and 0.4% in six seconds 7:06-7:12 on the video (could be one bit of precision).

Tesla Semi Specs: <2kWh/ mile at 60 MPH -> 120kW load average WHEN DRIVING 60 BLEEPING MPH with 80,000 POUND GROSS!

He also claimed only they have four drive motors...

This is not 100% correct.
When they accelerate, the BMS current goes negative, they even say that in the video @ 5:35.
And you can see that they accelerate at that time.

And BTW there is no way that the battery will have to "put out 80kW" when stopped. Charging at 80kW from the fool cell and using the remaining 18kW from the fool cell for cooling and stuff sounds more likely...

The most power draw from the battery was -410A * 677V = -273kW during acceleration. I guess the fool cell works in parallel then and the total power output is thus about - 370 kW.

I think when they were "cruising" the battery was charging at about ~ 100A * 669V = 67kW (@ 5:59). Thus they use 97kW (FC) - 67kW (battery charging) = 30kW for driving and cooling. But this part is just a wild analysis of a shaky video where you can't saw then they just hold the speed. I could be significantly off there (easily 2x more).

 

[Zaxxon]

God this smug condescending attitude cannot go without one last set of facts:

• I live in New Mexico.
• I’m 400 miles from a service center.
• There are about 1100 Teslas in this state. There would be thousands more if the state government wasn’t so utterly captured by the dealer and oil/gas lobbies.
• We have fought to change the laws for five years.
• Owners in NM pay about $1100 to get their cars towed to a service center for serious problems. This sucks.
• There is one (1) mobile tech serving 1100 cars in a 121,000 sq mi state.
• It can take 4+ weeks to get an appointment using the app.
• It’s almost impossible to get someone on the phone for unusual service issues.
• We are not pedantic prima donnas. We are customers and shareholders in a $250+ billion company. It can afford to address these deficiencies. It refuses to.

Seriously, folks. Tesla often does a great job with service. Their app model *could* be spectacular in the future. But they are not perfect, they can be infuriating at times since it's often nearly impossible to get a live person on the line, they do need to expand, etc etc. Just yesterday, I discovered (or rather the mobile tech discovered, since I was not allowed to open the box myself) that Tesla sent me literally an empty box for my $300 Homelink order.

If you are the type who reads posts by other folks here who own one (or two, or three) Teslas, have been around for the better part of a decade, and generally are positive on the company, and your reaction is to dismiss their concerns... Perhaps you could benefit from a momentary pause to reconsider whether it's your viewpoint that might be skewed.

Here in 2020, Tesla is now at a scale where they *can* solve these issues without risking the company's feasibility. We shall see whether they *choose to* solve them. There's no valid reason to have no service center in the Santa Fe or ABQ areas. There's no valid reason to not have one in East Tennessee. Or West Texas. Or Rapid City. Or Louisville/Lexington. Etc. There's no valid reason to have no 800 number that always presents a live person somewhere at Tesla who has the capability and mandate to assist the customer with getting his/her concern addressed. 90% of the time that line would educate the customer on how to place their service request via the mobile app. But it'd be a magical satisfaction increase for the 10% of the time it actually resolves an issue that currently drives the customer batty.

Those were perfectly acceptable gaps in 2015, 2017, and even early 2019. It's time to fill them, and it takes time to fill them. We're talking 750k vehicles next year, 1M+ in 2022. Tesla is a Big Boy Company™ now. It's valued higher than any other auto company.

No more excuses for the self-inflicted wounds.

 

[CorneliusXX]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

 

[Zaxxon]

Except that the government won't let them put them in. Tesla is pretty much outlawed in New Mexico.

I thought that only pertained to sales, since they obviously can operate their mobile service in the state. Apologies if I have that wrong. It doesn't detract from my larger point, however.

 

[RobStark]

Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

In 2040 there will be at least 2 Chinese Automakers with more than 10% Chinese automotive market share. I think the CCP will make sure of that.

I just don't think NIO will be one of them, at least not as an independent company.

 

[Curt Renz]

Isn't this also a test for support? Easier to do during this average volume day. But this seemed more like an iceberg than icicle, and maybe the world's fastest V-shaped recovery in history! That was pretty big right? Then it snapped back quite a bit and just as quickly.

Key Learning for Shorts: "Yup, it's real. We're F****."

It may well have been. TSLA was running upward for six days. Short heavy hedge funds and market makers may have been waiting for a day that was light on positive TSLA news with moderate trading volume. They might have gotten media allies to spread FUD on a company that does not provide them with advertising revenue. Then they appear to have given shoves that triggered cascades of stop limits set by weak longs who may have given little thought to 2020 taxes. They were also likely the first to have covered their shorts near today's bottom. It may turn out to have been a significant little bottom within an upward trend.

 

[Knightowl]

In 2040 there will be at least 2 Chinese Automakers with more than 10% Chinese automotive market share. I think the CCP will make sure of that.

I just don't think NIO will be one of them, at least not as an independent company.

That assumes that party survives, who knows.

 

[mongo]

very interesting post!

As to the four motors, he said they were the only one having independently driven motors that could steer and turn in different directions and could get itself out of a jackknife.

Perhaps Tesla can make FSD such that you don’t get into that situation in the first place.

Tesla also has 4 independent motors that can go forward and backward also (tank turn in place). Elon mentioned jack knife prevention at the reveal.

This is not 100% correct.
When they accelerate, the BMS current goes negative, they even say that in the video @ 5:35.
And you can see that they accelerate at that time.

And BTW there is no way that the battery will have to "put out 80kW" when stopped. Charging at 80kW from the fool cell and using the remaining 18kW from the fool cell for cooling and stuff sounds more likely...

The most power draw from the battery was -410A * 677V = -273kW during acceleration. I guess the fool cell works in parallel then and the total power output is thus about - 370 kW.

I think when they were "cruising" the battery was charging at about ~ 100A * 669V = 67kW (@ 5:59). Thus they use 97kW (FC) - 67kW (battery charging) = 30kW for driving and cooling. But this part is just a wild analysis of a shaky video where you can't saw then they just hold the speed. I could be significantly off there (easily 2x more).

Awe crud, you're right. I had the dign reversed and thought the dip on the graph was the regen example.
Thanks!

 

[smorgasbord]

Another aspect of TSLA coming into the S&P 500 at 1% means not just that tens of millions of dollars of TSLA has to be bought, but tens of millions of dollars of everything else has to be sold.

Let me dumb it down further and ‘prepare’ you;

1) S&P does NOT have to accept TSLA into the index; there is NO must add rule, people get to decide, people are notorious for being vindictive, selfish, stupid etc...
2) There is NO guarantee TSLA will even budge a bloody CENT when or if it enters the S&P
3) All this hype talk about inclusion and SP hitting the roof is just that — hypothetical talk
4) See 1 thru 3

The more certain people jabber on about how freaking awesome the event is going to be, the more certain I become that I’m about to find poo in my Corn Flakes.

And that’s me being positive.

To address the points raised:

1. Standard and Poor's has an Index Committee with 9 members. The chair of the committee from 1995 until just a short time ago was David Blitzer. It's now Philip Murphy. The other 8 members' identities are secret.
2. There is a strict set of rules governing inclusion/removal, etc. Here are the two most salient documents: S&P U.S. Indices Methodology and Equity Indices Policies & Practices Methodology
3. Like all written rules, interpretation of those rules matter. Think of US laws from Congress/President - those laws are still subject to interpretation in specific instances by the US Supreme Court. The difference with S&P is that the people writing the rules also interpret the rules, as well as get to amend/rewrite the laws at any time.
4. S&P does say: Constituent selection is at the discretion of the Index Committee and is based on the eligibility criteria. That implies, to me anyway, that, like voters in the US Electoral College, they can't really go against the criteria. The way they've exercised this discretion in the past is to rewrite the criteria. Simple enough, eh?
5. The most recent example of rule rewriting by S&P was to keep SNAP out of the S&P 500. LA Times story. The pertinent rule used to be that companies needed to have "a corporate governance structure consistent with U.S. practice." That was pretty broad. To keep SNAP out, S&P added a rule saying that companies cannot have "multiple share classes," but that this rule only applies to companies under consideration; it does not apply to companies already in the index (otherwise, Google and Facebook would be kicked out. Here's a link to S&P's official release from July 2017, or you can read S&P's Press Release.

   Companies with multiple share class structures are no longer eligible for inclusion in the S&P Composite 1500 and its component indices. Existing S&P Composite 1500 constituents are grandfathered in and are not affected by this change.

   and

   S&P DJI is eliminating the domicile requirement that a U.S. company must have a corporate governance structure consistent with U.S. practice.

6. Note that the LA Times story also said: S&P’s selection committee waits about six months to a year to add newly public companies to its indexes. But, Tesla is not a newly public company. Historically, S&P moves companies into/out of the index beginning with the quarter after the change in market cap has occurred. If a positive GAAP profit in Q2 is indeed announced in early Aug, then Oct 1 would be the date for inclusion.
7. S&P themselves disclaim:

   S&P DJI’s Index Committees reserve the right to make exceptions in the treatment if the need arises. In any scenario where the treatment differs from the general rules stated in this document, clients will receive sufficient notice, whenever possible.

8. There is more discretion with some indices. For instance:

   [The S&P 100] measures the performance of 100 companies selected from the S&P 500. Constituent selection is at the discretion of the Index Committee. Generally, the largest and most stable companies in the S&P 500 that have listed options are selected for index inclusion. Sector balance is also considered in the selection of companies for the S&P 100.

9. But the wording for the S&P 50 is much more concrete:

   At each annual reconstitution, the top 50 companies in the S&P 500, based on float-adjusted market capitalization, are selected for index inclusion. A buffer rule is applied to the constituent selection process at each rebalancing in order to reduce turnover:
   

   1. All companies ranked in the top 45 by float-adjusted market capitalization are automatically selected for index inclusion.
   2. Next, any current constituent companies remaining within the top 55 are re-selected for index inclusion, in order by rank, until the 50 company target count has been reached.
   3. If the target count still has not been reached, the highest ranking non-constituents are selected until 50 companies are included.

   1. Note that the S&P Top 50 is only calculated once a year - after the close of the third Friday in June, so TSLA will have to wait until 2021 to be in that index.

Finally, as for impact to TSLA's share price, S&P Global themselves claim there are $11.2 Trillion indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 (link), with $4.6 Trillion of that directly indexed to it. Meaning when a company gets added, those $4.6 Trillion have to add that company in a rebalance, and another $6.6 Trillion will eventually. This settles the argument, in my mind anyway, of the magnitude of the situation.


EDIT: See @engle 's correction post on "benchmark," which I misinterpreted above.

 

[ZeApelido]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

Your parents' basement is big enough for NIO.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yes I understand that but just because I missed out amazon.com doesn't mean I should jump on buythingsonline.com. They have gone full retard, they should never go full retard.

 

[Tslynk67]

Sorry to interrupt this utterly fascinating service discussion, riveting as it is, but worth pointing out that the highest options volume for this Friday is the p1300.

If I were a cynical person, I could even imagine hedge funds creating a sudden, artificial dip, thus encouraging innocent retail traders to buy at that strike, knowing full well that the SP will rise back to $1400 by open tomorrow.

But that wouldn’t be gentlemanly behaviour now, would it? No, how silly Of me to even entertain such a nefarious fiction.

 

[Nocturnal]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

It would not be natural to have a single company. Anti-trust would be a problem, as would market segmentation. There will probably be about the same number of companies as there are today. Perhaps more as cars become less like cars and more like computers/phones, or possibly fewer if ride sharing eats away at ownership and EVs wind up lasting materially longer.

 

[RobStark]

That assumes that party survives, who knows.

Whichever government is in control in Beijing will do the same.

Free Trade Classical Liberals aren't coming to power in China in any reasonable scenario.

 

[SOULPEDL]

highest options volume for this Friday is the p1300.

What's p1300, like max pain?

 

[capster]

That assumes that party survives, who knows.

Not a necessary assumption.
There will be *a* Chinese Government even if it’s not the current gang viz. USSR back in the day and Putin today.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm saying based on the current evidence, I don't know if it is sufficient, nor should any of us

Take the case of FSD detecting a huge restaurant sign (red octogon shape) and stopping for it [this happened like 2 months ago, haven't found the link to it]. If Tesla was already doing what I am talking about, it wouldn't be difficult to ignore the restaurant sign. While it's hard to guess the distance / size of an object in a static image, the problem becomes much easier when moving and you are looking at a few different image time points.

Maybe the rewrite will account for this. I guess we'll see in a few months looking at new edge failure cases.

I saw that video. Burger joint. Burger King? And they made a commercial out of it.

I’m a little lost what your point is about moving vs 3D. My spouse sees and thinks in 3D, which was a huge advantage in their job before computer programs did 3D. I can’t do it without a lot of thinking and help. But that’s okay, I have other super powers.

Anyway, my car used to try and stop at two unrelated locations, having interpreted stop-sign-like signs as full-fledged stop signs. Car doesn’t do that anymore. One of the several updates took care of that.

 

[Krugerrand]

very interesting post!

As to the four motors, he said they were the only one having independently driven motors that could steer and turn in different directions and could get itself out of a jackknife.

Perhaps Tesla can make FSD such that you don’t get into that situation in the first place.

The semi presentation was a while ago so my memory is foggy, but I’m pretty sure Elon addressed jackknifing at that time - basically wouldn’t likely happen with a Tesla semi.

 

[MP3Mike]

ARK was a big seller of TSLA today:

• ARKK: 41,439 shares (was 12.34% yesterday)
• ARKQ: 300 shares (was 15.5% yesterday)
• ARKW: 2,426 shares (was 11.92% yesterday)

 

[kyzhk]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

The last time I heard their earning report their management was either incompetent enough to not be able to find accurate information about Tesla or they intentionally lied about Tesla's specs. Either way I concluded that I should stay away from them because I don't touch any company with shitty management.