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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OT:
July 11 Falcon 9 • Starlink 9/BlackSky Global
Launch time: 1454 GMT (10:54 a.m. EDT)
Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to launch the tenth batch of approximately 60 satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network, a mission designated Starlink 9. Two Earth observation microsatellites for BlackSky Global, a Seattle-based company, will launch as rideshare payloads on this mission
Cancelled again. No date yet.
 
This doesn’t add up. Yes, this was a planned and well executed raid. But I don’t think it had anything to do with ‘information before it became known to us’. No news came out yesterday. And those calls would have expired worthless if their value depended on having inside information on news coming out yesterday. It simply was a plan to force a run up of the stock price with some strategic buying and letting the covering by the MMs and shorters and the general bullishness of the stock do the rest.
While writing my thoughts on what happened I tried to not have the reader limited to the nred that the whale(s) had "discovered" would be released by the source that produced it. I knew of none that was going to be officially released, or anything that could be released in the short term.
However, I do believe that a group of whales/Bulls had info that they knew was time sensitive as to other bulls would find it before the first whales could complete their strategy. Otherwise why wouldn't the Whales slowly buy up the large quantity of stock they needed over time instead of piling on like they did?
AND why buy when they did, while the pressure was on the MM's? Why not be more subtle? Why not back off an d"buy on the dip", or at the very least do a slow controlled purchase over time?
It still makes sense that the Buying whales knew something concrete, and acted before the rest of the big boys found out and started buying as well.
It did not appear that they were doing something like trying to beat an announcement... more of a Sun Tzu kind of move.
A Cloak and Dagger move well-played!
 
I beg to differ. If you look at the annual return on Amazon stock, it grew pretty spectacularly all the way from 2012 to 2020.
AMZN: Amazon.com, Inc. Yearly Stock Returns
I would say the business model of Amazon had been pretty much proven by 2012, wouldn't you? Tesla will grow faster for longer than Amazon. While Amazon is a great company in every sense, its value is still primarily driven by its online sales. Tesla is a Chimaera.

An interesting thing worth noting is that Amazon Web Services is more profitable than the rest of Amazon, and was first broken into a subsidiary with its own financials in 2012.

...IIRC, Tesla's always declared Energy financials separate from automotive, but so much of the market has valued Tesla as just a car company that significant Energy revenues/profits could change market valuation drastically, much like Amazon's breaking out of AWS (which was already making significant profit).
 
Rebalancing of the 'weights' in the NDX is only done once per quarter, not continuously in real time during the trading day. I think it only makes sense for the Committee to announce the 'weight' for TSLA in advance of it being added to the NDX. Otherwise, we got a runaway feedback loop, and obviously that hasn't happened with other additions.

Pretty sure you are right about about that.

The good thing about the S&P 500 quarterly rebalancing is that I expect Tesla to, on average, outperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin. What this means is every quarter this is true, all the S&P 500 index funds will act like large sponges to absorb more Tesla shares into their funds. And funds that are benchmarked to the index will likely add as well.

A subtle effect, for sure. But an effect that can only be beneficial over time.
 
I beg to differ. If you look at the annual return on Amazon stock, it grew pretty spectacularly all the way from 2012 to 2020.
AMZN: Amazon.com, Inc. Yearly Stock Returns
I would say the business model of Amazon had been pretty much proven by 2012, wouldn't you? Tesla will grow faster for longer than Amazon. While Amazon is a great company in every sense, its value is still primarily driven by its online sales. Tesla is a Chimaera.
The problem with the market is that it doesn't want to price in too far in the future growth when it comes to disrupters because it is much more risk averse than TSLA bulls. Market doesn't want to stick its neck out and say I'm gonna price in Tesla's 10x growth within the next 6 years. The best it's going to do is maybe ok, Tesla MAY be double its current size in 2 years. That's why it's going to keep being surprised by Tesla's increasing sales and new services, just like Amazon. That's why analysts are only willing to give out price targets 12 month out and not 6 years, like Cathie Wood did. "Crazy Cathie" will become an Oracle while even the most bullish TSLA analysts will have to keep playing catch up until Tesla has slowed down.
I like the analysis, but a big part of AMZNs big rise was AWS. If you looked at the growth, you could see 100% year over year growth for a decade or more.
I think when the software side of Tesla starts generating bigger revenue and FSD is working Tesla could get a different valuation from Wall St analysts.
 
According to Rob the 61% rise since just before the P&D report could be a sign of frontrunning: funds and other investors buying shares to be able to sell them to S&P index funds. This could imply that the actual inclusion will not cause another run up.

This type of thing is notoriously difficult for anyone to predict, and especially this far in advance since the macro climate at the time of addition will have quite an impact. Having said that, even with the assumption there is substantial front-running already happening, I expect the price to rise after announcement of S&P 500 inclusion and to fall right before inclusion and going forward after that. Perhaps by quite a bit.
 
That would be a bull, not bear attack.

I don't necessarily disagree with your theory, but I also don't think planned collusion was necessary to see what we saw today. We will almost certainly never know with any certainty. What I was seeing was pressure building under the lid as the pot was coming to a boil. Manipulators had to let it rise in small stages while keeping a lid on the pressure. This was well before the big breakout. I think even without any collusion we would have had a nice breakout as the manipulators simply didn't have enough resources to keep it down. And once it starts to breakout, there is a lot of pent-up buying pressure that jumps on when it becomes evident it's going higher, not lower.

Now it could be there was a planned attack (by parties with recent call purchases too) to take advantage of the natural buying pressure that has building in the leadup to anticipated earnings and S&P inclusion and it would make sense to build pressure under the lid before springing the attack. That's what I was seeing, building pressure under an artificial lid.

In any case, those trying to keep a lid on things really did lose control and in a manner even more dramatic than I hoped.:D
I respect your understanding of the market, but I can't see how what you said happened. Could you help me?

I am spending so much time keeping this in the forefront because I feel it is extremely telling and has already changed the game.

First, I am not sure it was "collusion." It is just that from what I have learned from this thread, is that often there is often collusion by one set against another. I am not suggesting the collusion was illegal, and not even whether the FACT was discovered/figured out/given/acquired in an illegal manner. I don't care. I just fel as though some more good is coming because of what happened.
I do believe that so much money was dumped in such an irrational manner that there was a level of desperation to get a certain amount of stock bought before something else changed (like another sector of buyers found out the "FACT," and raised the price even higher.).
And the behavior was such that it feels the impetus is a FACT, not a guess, not a belief...a fact. Something beyond reproach that was going to force all those involved to buy. Like an overwhelmingly good Profit Report, or the voting for inclusion in the S&P 500.
I think when the price broke away from the ability of the MM to suppress it the big Buyer(s) would have backed off, and judiciously purchased at a less dynamic point in time if the fact wasn't likely to reach other buyers soon. I am not saying it would be released to the public, just that other groups of buyers might have access through their networks soon.
So no, something forced the Buyer to keep running the price up AFTER the MM's had been destroyed. They needed those stocks so bad they went ahead and drove it up and kept buying. They needed them to the point that price wasn't the barrier. And the purchase of the HUGE block of calls the day before has me believing the (block of) Buyers developed the plan of "just keep buying till we have the number we need before the news spreads to other segments that will buy once they know it too. Not that it will be released to the public very soon, just "known" to other purchasing segments of the market regardless of how it disseminates.
AND there was nothing out there that caused this sudden movement of a quiet morning where it had been accepted since the middle of the week that the MM's were going to keep the price between $1380-$1400 to cause Max pain. And then the lid was blown off. It didn't matter, a certain number of stocks were going to be bought. And the day before a huge block ($550k worth) were bought just the day before because the buyer(s) knew they were going to have to buy so much it would definitely raise the price over $1500, which was going to be an increase of around $120 over where the MM's would try to keep it. This action shows it was NOT Robinhood retail investing type of purchases. It was someone that has been successfully playing the game for a long time.
And ya know what
I am spending so much time keeping this in the forefront because I feel it is extremely telling, and has already changed the game. First it has at the very least given the MM's a concussion, if not weakened it to the point it can't effectively manipulate TSLA like it has. Or perhaps convinced the MM's to go play somewhere else. And that would be great. Not likely, but such a strong loss by the MM's warmed all our hearts at the possibility... almost as much as the nice bump to the SP.
Secondly is the FACT that one powerful entity within the market is aware of a FACT, and we are not. Most of us "know" that Q2 has been profitable, and that S&P 500 inclusion is almost certain. But we do not have a cold hard document of the Profits, nor the inclusion. We are just riding along, doing our HODL or our little options' stuff. I feel that the behavior demonstrated in this BULL Raid shows how solid the information was, how big a fact it is, and how the information will have a huge impact on the stock price as soon as it is released to the public.
And that means good things are definitely coming.
HODL with a smile.
 
Any comments on what seems to be a multi-million dollar wager on TSLA reaching $2,500 next week? Like yesterday's large bet on $1,500, seems like somebody knows something.

Is this as risky as it seems?

https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1/status/1281886141109751809?s=19

No matter what that person knows or thinks they know, there is no way that isn't crazy risky.

I'd probably buy some more calls but I'm tapped out. The only way I could find more money would be to sell TSLA. ;)

This type of thing is notoriously difficult for anyone to predict, and especially this far in advance since the macro climate at the time of addition will have quite an impact. Having said that, even with the assumption there is substantial front-running already happening, I expect the price to rise after announcement of S&P 500 inclusion and to fall right before inclusion and going forward after that. Perhaps by quite a bit.
I'm sure I'm not the only one, but I will be selling my trading shares/options when it looks like we are close to the top and possibly some core shares after that to bet on a slow decline back to a reasonable price. (assuming we hit some weird/unreasonable prices)
 
No matter what that person knows or thinks they know, there is no way that isn't crazy risky.

I'd probably buy some more calls but I'm tapped out. The only way I could find more money would be to sell TSLA. ;)


I'm sure I'm not the only one, but I will be selling my trading shares/options when it looks like we are close to the top and possibly some core shares after that to bet on a slow decline back to a reasonable price. (assuming we hit some weird/unreasonable prices)
Let us know when it's close to the top so we all know when to expect it :) ...in all reality....for the HODL people like myself, this is the best entertainment we can get during this pandemic. For me, it has gotten me closer to my son (Discussing TSLA on a daily basis), having fun predicting the future of TSLA, watching shorts burn, hearing from my fellow investing friends saying 'do not forget me when you're filthy rich', planning for my MODEL Y, the list goes on and on.

Here's to higher peaks in the future!
 
There are ~185M TSLA shares.

If 184,999,999 of those were held by Elon and would not be sold at any price until needed for Mars colonization, Tesla's stock price and market capitalization would be decided by a single person. The person holding the only share not in Elon's hands decides what his selling price is, and therefore the stock price. At this point, it'd probably be more about scarcity and the unique 'collector's value' of this single share than the actual value dictated by fundamentals, and I expect the share would be worth millions of dollars, and give Tesla some completely absurd hundreds of trillions of dollars market cap.

If 184,900,000 of those shares were held by Elon and the effective float was only 100k shares, the price of those shares would be dictated by a handful of ultra high conviction (probably for a large part retail) shareholders. I assume Tesla's market cap would be well north of $1T. In this scenario, the stock price might as high as $10,000 today.

In reality, Elon only owns ~40M shares, so currently the TSLA float is ~145M shares. This TSLA float is about to contract significantly, and a large number of the shareholders with weaker convictions and lower price targets are about to sell their shares to funds tracking or benchmarking the S&P 500, and therefore the SP will rise significantly. Especially because even among institutional investors there are a large number of high conviction holders. Ron Baron may be an extreme example, but in his most recent CNBC interview he said he would love to buy more TSLA @ $1,000. There is no way that man is going to sell a single share today below $2,000, probably $3,000+.

There's a good chance that there will be some sort of peak and dip at some point after the S&P 500 inclusion, but I think it's highly unlikely this is it and that the dip will be to $1,000 - $1,500. Barring bad macros, I think there's a decent chance TSLA will be permanently revalued to $2,000+, with a small chance of some crazy permanent revaluation to $3,000+. Assuming the float will be contracted by approximately one third, it's going to be up to the two thirds of shareholders with the highest conviction to set a new bottom.
Frank?
You have assumed something..it isn't the Seller that establishes the value of a stock. It is the buyer. yes?
The Seller only offers the object for sale at a price. If no buyer agrees then the seller's offer has no worth in determining the value.
 
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The good thing about the S&P 500 quarterly rebalancing is that I expect Tesla to, on average, outperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin. What this means is every quarter this is true, all the S&P 500 index funds will act like large sponges to absorb more Tesla shares into their funds. And funds that are benchmarked to the index will likely add as well.

I'm confused about this, and all the opinions shared here lately have been helpful but have not resolved it for me.

If post-addition TSLA outperforms the rest of the S&P 500 by 10% (let's say for simplicity TSLA is up 10% and everyone else is flat), so at the next rebalancing an index fund requires 10% more dollars in TSLA, don't they buy nothing because their existing TSLA shares appreciated 10% already? What could happen to actually require them to buy more shares?

(I guess I'm thinking, if companies on the index issue more shares, that might change the mathematics? But not if the share count stays the same and it's only the share price that adjusts?)
 
No matter what that person knows or thinks they know, there is no way that isn't crazy risky.

I'd probably buy some more calls but I'm tapped out. The only way I could find more money would be to sell TSLA. ;)


I'm sure I'm not the only one, but I will be selling my trading shares/options when it looks like we are close to the top and possibly some core shares after that to bet on a slow decline back to a reasonable price. (assuming we hit some weird/unreasonable prices)

I've already stated a non-risky, logical reason for the $550k in calls purchased on Thursday. The purchaser knew they were going to buy a large number of stocks on Friday Afternoon. And determined the minimum amount that the stock would move upwards considering that sum being purchased. They just made back some of the increase they caused in the stocks they created when they purchased those stocks.