Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Thanks @Lycanthrope. I will look up the thread Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA
You already mentioned one factor, the strike price, ATM. Besides this, what's the simple formula so to speak you go buy in deciding when to buy the LEAPs? I would think volatility is one key factor.

Well smart people here will tell you indeed that the time to buy LEAPS is when IV gets crushed. I think they have some tools that indicates this, maybe their broker show it on their options-chains, I don't know, but I have no idea where to see it. However, as I have a range of calls in my trading account, and I check it regularly, I can see the changes reflected in the % up/down and yes, right now LEAPS are down, so a reasonably good time to buy.

Otherwise I'm just using feeling/common-sense/belief, call it what you will. Example: In early March, just before C19 struck, the SP was trading around $750 having pulled-back from the February highs. Seemed to me that the stock wanted to go higher, so I bought 4x Jan 21 $875's for $14k each, total cost $56k. Of course then we got the C19 dip and their value was massacred down to 15k, did I panic and sell, hell no, obviously it was going to rebound at some point and having 10 months still to run is the beauty of LEAPS. In fact close to the bottom of the C19 dip I sold my 100 trading shares at $465 and bought 10x Jun 2022 $1400's for $44k total cost - sold those 3 weeks later for $120k, when the SP had risen to $700ish and then started selling puts with the capital, netting $5-$10k per week for a while.

As for the Jan 21 $875's - they went ITM in June and I sold for $108k, so roughly double the money, waited an hour for a dip, then bought 4x June 22 $1250's for the same premium (know as rolling), thus dramatically reducing the risk. Obviously those calls are now ITM and the current Ask/Bid is around $650, so they're worth nearly 3x (so 6x original investment overall).

If the SP goes $4k or above before June 2022, those 4 calls (original price $56k) will be worth $1m+, roughly 3.5x more than the appreciation of common stock had I bought that instead.

So yeah, buy LEAPS on the big dips, basically, then roll them to less-risky strikes/dates. Not advice, of course, always a chance you'll lose your premium.

As for the 10x Jun 22 $1400's, well I should have held onto those, they're now worth $575k, and this is my second biggest take-away with LEAPS, don't sell too soon, of if you must, just sell half, because they appreciate like crazy...

 

[Tslynk67]

Pre-pre-market decided it’s not worth the bother now...

 

[kanweg]

I have a rule for you. Anybody who posts "chair" in this context is banned permanently for confusing stupid with funny.

Elon already said that they were underappreciated. :-(

 

[LN1_Casey]

Pre-pre-market decided it’s not worth the bother now...

The regular market has been decided to be the same for the past two weeks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pre-pre-market decided it’s not worth the bother now...

Yesterday Aug 05, 2020 saw the lowest share volume day for TSLA since Dec 5, 2019:

But there's lots of noise in changes in the Daily volume. Something more interesting appears when looking at the 5-day trailing average volume:

Do you see where yesterday ranks by 5-day trailing avg volume? Further, there's really only two separate periods of low volume in the past 8 months: early-Dec 2019 and late-June 2020.

Now, Aug 2020 is sneaking up this figurative ladder. No conclusion is warranted as of yet, but it is possible that TSLA is once more pausing before a big runup like those seen in Jan and July 2020.

NOT advice.

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

Yesterday Aug 05, 2020 saw the lowest share volume day for TSLA since Dec 5, 2019:

View attachment 573080

But there's lots of noise in changes in the Daily volume. Something more interesting appears when looking at the 5-day trailing average volume:

View attachment 573081

Do you see where yesterday ranks by 5-day trailing avg volume? Further, there's really only two separate periods of low volume in the past 8 months: early-Dec 2019 and late-June 2020.

Now, Aug 2020 is sneaking up this figurative ladder. No conclusion is warranted as of yet, but it is possible that TSLA is once more pausing before a big runup like those seen in Jan and July 2020.

NOT advice.

Cheers!

Relatedly, here are the Yahoo sourced 5 day average volume and closing price (scaled) for the last year:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Everybody's an idiot except me and I can prove it with numbers

Source: Wikipedia:Assume stupidity

• “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. ” — Hanlon's razor.
• “Everyone's an idiot except for me. ” — SpongeBob ...

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

No, it means that I found the story on Google which, being Google, likes to wrap its digital tentacles around the WSJ’s own URL for its own story, such wrappage for all intents and purposes turning it into a Google URL enabling Google to snoop around and “learn” more about you and your interests should you click on such a link. Not that anyone notices or cares, as they blissfully click on the link anyway, a type of link Google calls “AMP” the official marketing name being Accelerated Mobile Publishing as if Google is doing us all a favor speeding up the web for us but in reality just means Google didn’t like what Apple was doing with Apple News, Apple’s version of wrapping its respective digital tentacles around an independent news outlet’s story URL so it can respectively hitch a ride with the poor schmuck who blissfully clicks on it unaware of what’s going on, or Facebook’s similar mechanisms for snooping and privacy invasion spun as improving the user experience.

That sounds as if it is a lot of work. I do it the easy way. I seldom click on links and rely on the poster's summary. (If it's wrong, someone else will say in a follow up post).

 

[Boomer19]

Don’t know where you are coming from but most, I would say at least 80%, of the posts on this board are from gamblers. I.e., options and short term stock traders. I am quite sick of reading about those who own one (1) call or have sold one put, etc. Who cares? Let’s get back to what this board is all about: investors (long term owners) sharing meaningful information about their investments.

i used to learn more in one day and 30 posts than i have in the last year and 10,000+ posts

 

[jeewee3000]

i used to learn more in one day and 30 posts than i have in the last year and 10,000+ posts

The same goes for me personally. That's why I'm on this board less often nowadays. I have some ideas regarding fixing this but whenever I shared these in the past I was criticized left and right by loud-mouth posters that never share anything interesting.

Sorry for the negativity, I love TMC and many of its (older) posters, but since we broke $400 the value of the general thread is in the gutter.

 

[Unpilot]

Hang on, I figured, that is one hoopy frood who knows where his towel is!

I don't know what this means....but I like it!

 

[Unpilot]

Just tell us if it gets to 22k/sh by 2024.

No I won't tell you....you island hogging mean cat.
Everyone but you will get a private message!

 

[Lessmog]

I don't know what this means....but I like it!

Sorry. A meme from Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy.

 

[Unpilot]

Since it is still pre-market here is my Tesla story.
I knew about Tesla but did not follow them much at all. Was walking in downtown Chicago and came across the Tesla showroom on Rush street. Sat in a Model S....man there must have been some mind control air coming from the vent's because I was HOOKED from then on.

Bought a Model S December of 2017.
That was the single best financial investment in my life. Yes I said buying a car was a financial investment...even though I did not know it at the time. At the time it sure seemed like a lot of money for a car!

Started buying stock about the same time.
I have been a full fledged fanboy ever since.

 

[Unpilot]

Cant wait for market to open so I can watch the price go nowhere.

 

[RobStark]

What? Tesla had already proven themselves with the Roadster, the Top rated car in Motor Trend history (Model S) and the Model X. Rivian has done nothing except for a prototype, which feat dozens if not over 100 U.S. automobile manufacturers had managed to do in the last 80 years without being able to make it into production.

After Tesla has "proven themselves" Model 3 ramp up was a complete cluster ****.

No one has claimed Rivian has accomplished anything in manufacturing, because they have even attempted it yet.

Pointing out what they will attempt over the next year.

Some people need to take a chill pill when pointing out some obvious facts that Tesla is not perfect.

Elon Musk himself is not this defensive regarding Tesla nor SpaceX.

Elon said his goal for his companies is to be less stupid over time.

 

[Intl Professor]

After Tesla has "proven themselves" Model 3 ramp up was a complete cluster ****.

No one has claimed Rivian has accomplished anything in manufacturing, because they have even attempted it yet.

Pointing out what they will attempt over the next year.

Some people need to take a chill pill when pointing out some obvious facts that Tesla is not perfect.

Elon Musk himself is not this defensive regarding Tesla nor SpaceX.

Elon said his goal for his companies is to be less stupid over time.

Sounds like Socrates as reported by Plato.

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't know what this means....but I like it!

Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy:

A towel is just about the most massively useful thing an interstellar hitchhiker can carry. Partly because it has great practical value. You can wrap it around you for warmth as you bound across the cold moons of Jaglan Beta; you can lie on it on the brilliant marble-sanded beaches of Santraginus V, inhaling the heady sea vapours; you can sleep under it beneath the stars which shine so redly on the desert world of Kakrafoon; use it to sail a miniraft down the slow heavy River Moth; wet it for use in hand-to-hand combat; wrap it around your head to ward off noxious fumes or avoid the gaze of the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal (a mind-bogglingly stupid animal, it assumes that if you can't see it, it can't see you — daft as a brush, but very very ravenous); you can wave your towel in emergencies as a distress signal, and of course you can dry yourself off with it if it still seems to be clean enough.

More importantly, a towel has immense psychological value. For some reason, if a stragdiscovers that a hitchhiker has his towel with him, he will automatically assume that he is also in possession of a toothbrush, washcloth, soap, tin of biscuits, flask, compass, map, ball of string, gnat spray, wet-weather gear, space suit etc., etc. Furthermore, the strag will then happily lend the hitchhiker any of these or a dozen other items that the hitchhiker might accidentally have "lost." What the strag will think is that any man who can hitch the length and breadth of the Galaxy, rough it, slum it, struggle against terrible odds, win through and still knows where his towel is, is clearly a man to be reckoned with.

Hence a phrase which has passed into hitch hiking slang, as in "Hey, you sass that hoopy Ford Prefect? There's a frood who really knows where his towel is."

 

[GOVA]

Come on guys. Let's pump up those Q3 numbers.

Desktop Supercharger

Done x 3.

My kids will love it. I'll keep one for sure.

 

[lafrisbee]

No.

but I'll help clean-up after everyone goes home