Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Lol @ this poorly timed MMD just as macros turn strongly positive. Yet ANOTHER $60+ mid-morning upswing?

Indeed, they shoved down hard when the Daq dropped to -0.50%, but $TSLA recovering faster, so if the Daq goes green...

TBH, I never understand why macro should affect the value of an individual stock which isn't affected by it, but that's stinks for you.

 

[Boomer19]

For every share lent pre-event the lender ends up with 5 shares lent post event (same total dollar value). Shares do not need to be provided until sold/ recalled, at which point the lent shares have also increased in volume 5x. No real change.

correct,

everything on the entities stock record is adjusted for the split;

cust position
house position
pledges of tesla stock as collateral to clrhouse (if applicable - not even sure you can pledge tesla to be honest, but just covering all bases)


broker to broker fails and
stock loan and borrow contracts
will keep the collateral but increase the share qty outstanding and reduce the price per share

 

[Unpilot]

Lol @ this poorly timed MMD just as macros turn strongly positive. Yet ANOTHER $60+ mid-morning upswing?

ha $60...TSLA is a SWINGER not a swinger.

 

[dl003]

For every share lent pre-event the lender ends up with 5 shares lent post event (same total dollar value). Shares do not need to be provided until sold/ recalled, at which point the lent shares have also increased in volume 5x. No real change.

I think this is the main point of contention here. Is it true for both stock split and stock dividend? How do we verify it?

 

[StealthP3D]

Sure, eventually, Tesla may have surplus production. But I don't see it next year or within five years. There's just way too much growth.

I agree on the huge growth of vehicles and energy systems. But I think given enough raw materials (and that's far from a given) it's much easier to ramp batteries at astronomical rates than it is to ramp vehicles and energy systems. So it really comes down to the supply of raw materials.

 

[Boomer19]

When money or power is involved, some people will do whatever it takes to get it for themselves. This isn't fraud in the normal sense that someone ends up feeling burned - it's fraud on the whole system, like an invisible monkey on the back of a stock. The people who do it probably look at it like it's just "a little white lie".

not questioning it. just looking for a better explanation of the mechanics of such a thing than we (including me) have come up with so far

 

[Freder Reeve]

so tessie does a 5 to 1 dividend ninja split, then MS and BoA go from permabear oil investment marketeers to sudden reversals on tesla. Nothing fishy there move along.

 

[vikings123]

Nah, $1700 say I, they can't cap this $1650 the whole day... Don't believe it's worth it - they'll try for a couple of hours and give up, start hedging $1700

Not. An. Advice.

We need to break 1660 first. That is the upper BB at this time so we will see our shortie friends trying to cap us under that number. And then we see them close their short positions as we head towards market close which should spike us to 1700 by close. Just my read and NFA. Cheers.

 

[ggr]

I recent Tesla Daily video from Rob M explained Tesla account for shares on the 21st and brokers track them afterwards.

When a short has borrowed a share, that borrowed share gets the dividend .. so no real problem..

But i think Dodgers is on to something here in naked shorts, no share is borrowed so no dividend is coming.
If the share price is 1/5 after the split perhaps those naked shorts can pick up the required shares in time.. they always needed to buy 1 now they need to buy 5.

The big danger for shorts of all kinds is the share price being higher than 1/5 after the split.

So part of the current rally is covering. I do think Dodger is on to something ....

I guess really what counts is the naked short position at particular firms at this time, if they have a pattern of behavior where they are peak short at this stage of the cycle they might get caught out...

Options closing dates might be part of the jigsaw..

Another incorrect posting focusing on the difference between naked and covered shorts... the bolded bit of the quote. The guy who gets the new dividend shares is the end purchaser. That's the real share. The short still has to make good the lender.

 

[mongo]

Another incorrect posting focusing on the difference between naked and covered shorts... the bolded bit of the quote. The guy who gets the new dividend shares is the end purchaser. That's the real share. The short still has to make good the lender.

Only when the original owner/ lender sells or recalls the shares.
Just like when they had one pre-event share lent.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I want to reiterate how much happier of a community we are the last 3 days than we were the first 2 of this week

 

[Boomer19]

I think this is the main point of contention here. Is it true for both stock split and stock dividend? How do we verify it?

the event is considered a “dividend” event in the street’s nomenclature and categorization of certain corporate actions events.

but that “dividend” category includes many use cases; forward splits and what we here consider dividends (like a stock or cash dividend that’s an ‘income-producing’ and taxable event)

a forward split isn’t an income producing event and thus not taxable - even in europe although there has been some question about that, due to varying european tax code

 

[StealthP3D]

For every share lent pre-event the lender ends up with 5 shares lent post event (same total dollar value). Shares do not need to be provided until sold/ recalled, at which point the lent shares have also increased in volume 5x. No real change.

That's only true if there are not a substantial number of synthetic shares out there, shares sold short in a circular scheme with no real underlying shares to back them up. I think this is a distinct possibility. It's all on the trust and faith of the "good names" of the market makers who have been providing reliable and dependable service to the financial industry for decades.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If the MM's don't survive... what happens to us owners of their options? Do they go bankrupt taking us down with them or something?

See? NOW yer thinking like a forensic accountant! MORE please! and louder, too!

The low-probability case has huge risk associated with it. People tend to discount the magnitude of risk if it is preceived as an unlikely outcome. I think that is technically called the "sub-prime mortgage meltdown".

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

Sheesh, can we drop all the screen comparisons? Besides, mine is bigger than yours, y'damn amateurs.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1294236809795457035?s=20

CNBC with Melissa Lee talking about the $TSLA upgrades....priceless

 

[scaesare]

OK, you guys made me take a selfie beside my 160" screen (sorry could not fit the whole screen on picture, would need a selfi-stick for that...):

I like the Screenception thing we got going here...

 

[joh01652]

i don’t buy it. unless there is some giant outright fraud going on it just doesn’t work that way.

Wall Street is rife with fraud. Look at the 2008 financial crisis, that was a massive fraud. Look at Bernie Madoff, his huge fraud that went on for years, and was chairman of the NASDAQ during that time. I mean, there's so much fraud on Wall St. one doesn't have to look hard at all, in the news most days. Look at the price of TSLA stock--you can't tell me these huge swings day in and day out is due to efficient markets and a balanced supply/demand equation driven by Robinhood traders.

 

[Tslynk67]

I want to reiterate how much happier of a community we are the last 3 days than we were the first 2 of this week

It's all that invigorating dishwasher talk and monitor-pissing competition that does it!

BTW, cheap appliances last 5 years, good appliances last 10, Miele last 20 - that's what you pay for.

Our previous Miele washing machine has 2 faults in the 15 years we had it - broken door seal and worn brushes on the motor. I fixed both myself. We upgraded to a new Miele for a bigger load-size and more features (mini-wash, etc.)

Another macro drop, so $TSLA follows, with a bit of help.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just in....Gordon Johnson lowers PT for $TSLA to $13..citing growth, demand, battery constraints, COVID-19, Karens, Kevins, economy, toilet leaks, customer dissatisfaction........