Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

NJ has a $5000 rebate plus no sales tax on zero emissions vehicles. Must be under $55K, so Performance 3 qualifies, as long as you get it in white.

and if you don't like white, you can use the $5k to get a cool wrap! might i suggest Imperial Orchid, with blacked out trim?

 

[adiggs]

I think many of use here have taken literal abuse from friends, family and colleagues on our $TSLA investment. For my part I always explained why it was such a great opportunity, while they just parroted back the FUD from the various websites.

They ain't laughing now though, and as I've said before, only one person ever took my advice and invested, her average buy-in was around $200.

It's so obvious to me, I don't understand why others don't get it.

The financial relationship / manager fellow that Fidelity assigned to my account, and my wife, spent time earlier this year talking about how risky Tesla was and how we should lock in those gains and deploy into something more diversified and less risky. I wanted to explain how everything else looked amazingly risky, and that Tesla was about the only safe place I could see putting our money at that time.

So we stayed put, as we have for ~8 years.

I don't bother trying to explain it to most people. And my wife drives our Model X and Roadster, so she's got the product side of my investment thesis well understood. Beyond that, she trusts me.

For the financial advisor, I listen to the other stuff and he just has to deal with the fact that I'm not diversified.


I expect we'll be having a detailed retirement conversation in the next few weeks, where I expect him to again make the class for more / better diversification. I might, but probably won't, try to explain how Tesla is the least risky place I see to have investments right now. Maybe even safer than US Treasuries (and maybe not).

I don't understand how others can not get it too.

 

[smorgasbord]

Just a note that IMO "baggers" are not good ways to track results. For instance, today's $150 move is a 6-bagger for my early shares - TODAY ALONE.

If you're tracking results, you need to include the time factor. I'd rather have a double-bagger in 1 year than a triple bagger in 2 years, and yet both of those are better than a five bagger in 10 years.

You need to use something like CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), which can be calculated via the XIRR function in Excel, on your whole portfolio (or individual investment) to really track your results.

 

[Motor Mouth]

They're right, the split doesn't do anything; anyone can do simple algebra and see it. It's a broader base of investor bidding up the price of the stock that will do the work. For persons whose work is to communicate with the mass, they're (un)surprisingly oblivious to human psychology.

I have a friend that asked me about $TSLA 6 weeks ago. He kept saying he would buy in if it went down a little. Obviously, he hasn't bought yet. I strongly suspect he will buy post-split. There's something about the perception of the lower price. It's entirely irrational. It also seems to be strangely powerful. The human mind is fascinating. In this case it will have cost him hundreds if not thousands of dollars.

 

[Nocturnal]

What a gloriously crazy stock.

 

[canoemore]

Tesla Gigafactory Texas moves at lightning speed with pile drivers already on site

That's pretty speedy!

 

[obie_fl]

I'm feeling a little light headed and my nose is starting to bleed. Is that normal?

 

[wipster]

Damn, didn't expect this...

And, no, I didn't go back to sleep...

 

[GrandEnigma]

NJ has a $5000 rebate plus no sales tax on zero emissions vehicles. Must be under $55K, so Performance 3 qualifies, as long as you get it in white.

I need to get clarification on this, but my understanding was that the $55k cap included destination fees which means you miss the Performance model by about $1,200.

 

[Vad42]

Just a note that IMO "baggers" are not good ways to track results. For instance, today's $150 move is a 6-bagger for my early shares - TODAY ALONE.

If you're tracking results, you need to include the time factor. I'd rather have a double-bagger in 1 year than a triple bagger in 2 years, and yet both of those are better than a five bagger in 10 years.

You need to use something like CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), which can be calculated via the XIRR function in Excel, on your whole portfolio (or individual investment) to really track your results.

Yea, but where's the fun in that? All too scientific. At first I was waiting for that 2nd comma to appear. Now that it's well in the past ( few months ago) and 3rd comma is never going to happen for me, I need something else fun to look forward too. The first digit going from 1 to 2 and beyond, while exciting seems a bit pedestrian as a milestone now that '2' is probably within a few weeks of happening for me. Suggestions?

 

[Pezpunk]

i've got Tchaikovsky stuck in my head, anyone know why...?

 

[mars_or_bust]

Jesus f**** Christ! When I said it would be damn suspicious of how the universe works if we get to 2100 before the stock splits in 5, I was only joking. However....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I hereby declare war on fossil fuels and their allies!

 

[ggr]

Momentarily was up over 10%; that usually triggers some selling action, so it take a few times to break through. Very positive though.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It's too much work updating the stock price in excel. And it costs money. I'm at my 3rd keyboard now.

Anyone know a way to autoimport a live stockprice from somewhere into an excel cell? Don't have to be real-time. A one minute delay or something would be fine.

Serious question.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Tesla Gigafactory Texas moves at lightning speed with pile drivers already on site

That's pretty speedy!

Setting construction records here

 

[SOULPEDL]

If we say, for instance, that a GF produces 500K vehicles/year, and then allow for a TF to produce 750K vehicles/year, how many TF's does Tesla need to build, how quickly can they build them - both financially and physically? For Tesla to get to 10M vehicles/year, they need between 15 and 20 factories, right?

It's better, IMO. "Every Factory is a product" to quote Elon.

Factories improve each greenfield, so we can't just multiply by floorspace for example. But it's even more than that.

For a while, the constraint was with batteries, now it's nickel - very specific and no longer assumes factory capacity. Next constraint may be titanium for pearl white paint, lol. See the pattern?

So assuming their battery production constraint just caught some relief, we should see a much higher focus on volume at every Tesla factory to date. They only needed to build as fast as the biggest constraint, any more is not lean manufacturing.

Roadrunner is going to seriously scare people how fast it spits out batteries, and that's a general consensus lately. I think the name "Roadrunner" gave it away? Not as difficult to understand as the LeMur clue.

 

[Artful Dodger]

imma leave this here @Curt Renz

Cheers!

 

[lukex4]

It's too much work updating the stock price in excel. And it costs money. I'm at my 3rd keyboard now.

Anyone know a way to autoimport a live stockprice from somewhere into an excel cell? Don't have to be real-time. A one minute delay or something would be fine.

Serious question.

Not Excel but in a Google Spreadsheet:

=GOOGLEFINANCE("NASDAQ:TSLA")

 

[willow_hiller]

You need to use something like CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), which can be calculated via the XIRR function in Excel, on your whole portfolio (or individual investment) to really track your results.

Good tip. In this case, my CAGR is actually higher than my "bagger" rating. The weighted average of my share purchase dates is only 0.8 of a year