Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

No, not really but not totally unrelated.

The Great filter is the hypothesis that intelligent civilizations will not survive for very long after they have discovered technology. Thereby explaining the great silence in the universe. (The Fermi Paradox)

Similar ideas seem to be important for Elon’s drive to accelerate good technology in order to pass the Great Filter. Tesla, SpaceX and Neurolink are directly related of course.M Hence the pinned tweet I guess.

In any case, it is perhaps suitable to use this moment after a eventful day to get some perspective on things.

For a really deep, smart, dive into similar ideas I recommend this video by a card-carrying astrophysics/astrobiologist David Kipping explaining his latest peer-reviewed paper on the likelihood that we are alone in the universe (using Bayesian probability theory). Prof Kipping argues that the likelihood might be much greater than what even very smart people assume.

Also a surprisingly well-produced video for being from an academic. Highly recommended.

Elon may indeed think of things from the physics culture though the concept of such filtering isn’t unique to one field.

Our evolutionary history is, IMHO, a bit more compelling and accessible to more people as one can say that humanity has already had at least one close call related to climate change.

The idea that climate change presents another such filter directly ahead isn’t such a stretch to convey.

But I guess this kind of talking at cross purposes about what is enough of the same thing for practical purposes is another reason why I didn’t stay in academia after I got my doctorate.

 

[ggr]

That's what I'm seeing. Minus the Biden speech being a catalyst - this kind of buying looks to me like somebody that knows they're going to be buying a lot of shares tomorrow, and getting option positions in place ahead of time looks like a great way to benefit from that buying.

The 78k 2000 call trades makes the 30-40k 2050's and 2100's (each) look 'small'. Something like 150k trades - if those are all represent net new positions, covers 10.5M shares; that's about 5% of TSLA shares outstanding. I really don't expect that those 150k trades ALL represent net new positions, but it's still a huge amount of volume (and I suspect more than 1/2 represent net new positions).

The 2100's aren't being bought thinking we'll got $10 or $20 in the money - I expect they are looking for $100 or more ITM (based on that previous "bull raid" (my term) we had a month or so back with the $200 move on a Friday).


If only I had the courage of my convictions, along with a better than bad ability to predict direction, magnitude, and timing of the share price. (Make your own decisions, take your own consequences; my own conviction leads me to "do nothing")

10.5M shares is approximately the current short interest.

 

[Mo City]

Well ahead of schedule IMO but the market always prices in advance. Battery day is probably baked in, but not autonomy.

However, if FSD can occasionally drive from home to office without interventions, the market will start pricing in robotaxies. That will create another massive surge in the SP, followed by a long period waiting for FSD to reach four or five 9s. Crazy to think it might start this year if EM isn't being overly optimistic about the rewrite.

You better believe autonomy isn't baked in. If/when the market is convinced Tesla will achieve autonomy, TSLA could pop by $2K-$5K almost instantly IMO.

 

[StealthP3D]

...and don't forget Tesla Energy which ARK is not including. While $TSLA is getting close to ARK's non-autonomy valuation I believe there is still room for growth

Yes, plenty of room for growth - it's not even a belief - it's a fact. Whether that growth will happen or not is up to each individual to decide. I think it's fairly certain. For those interested, here is something I wrote when the stock was trading at $430 (only 9 months ago):

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

It's still relevant today because the urge to sell at low prices can be unbelievably strong.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Great advice...but as soon some of us here pick up a roadster it'll be hard to hide.

Some of you Probably shouldn't be driving that and it would be wise for all to hide

 

[NicoV]

Great advice...but as soon some of us here pick up a roadster it'll be hard to hide.

Well don’t order that SpaceX booster option then

 

[StealthP3D]

You better believe autonomy isn't baked in. If/when the market is convinced Tesla will achieve autonomy, TSLA could pop by $2K-$5K almost instantly IMO.

I think it will be a more gradual thing as the realization that it will happen sinks in. It will come in spurts, some bigger than others.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well don’t order that SpaceX booster option then

That is not an option not to 'order' the SpaceX booster!

 

[ninpb]

At this rate, we are going to be deprived of celebrating 420 again after the split.

 

[EVortex]

And for anyone under a hundred years old,

Who’s Drake?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Credit: Twitter @28delayslater

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[c041v]

View attachment 578749

I think there was a lot of talk about a trip to Iceland when $420 hit to meet a now departed member...

Does that mean we need to make 5 trips to Iceland now? I don't mind as it's my favourite place in the whole world, but we should stagger the visits or something.

 

[LTC_RRR]

View attachment 578751

Credit: Twitter @28delayslater

This is the one that plays the music while you are on hold with customer service

 

[capster]

Speaking of abstraction, is anyone else finding TSLA at 2001 a little unreal?

I mean it’s fabulous. But maybe because I don’t plan to sell any, I can’t quite wrap my head around it and feel a bit detached.

What’s in a number? I suppose.

 

[dl003]

I feel like some hand holding is needed for this moment.
Edit: no announcement today

 

[RobStark]

TSLA: +6.22
NKLA: -2.81
GM: -1.0
F: -0.66
WKHS: -1.16
NIO: -2.06

Balance is restored.

Workhorse owns 10% of Lordstown Motors but isn't Lordstown Motors.

When Lordstown Motors goes public they will trade under the symbol RIDE.

Workhorse makes commercial vans and is a finalist to supply the US Post Office with their new generation mail delivery vehicle.

 

[UncaNed]

Is there any artistic soul who can design a cool yet subtle Teslanaire sticker we can slap on the cars?

And MADE IN AMERICA too.

No other manufacturer can really say that!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No announcement today....tune in tomorrow same time

 

[BornToFly]

Just in case people are thinking there's some special TSLA sauce today, here's what I'm seeing in the stocks I own (mostly TSLA, but a little playing around on the side):
TSLA: +6.4
ZM: +6.0
FSLY: +12.1
DDOG: +4.6

There's no special news for any of them. The NASDAQ is up .6%. Nice day in my portfolio.

Wait a minute.... You're not 100% TSLA?!? Weak longs are not allowed on TMC!!!