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Circumstances changed meanwhile:
  • SR Grohmann machine got installed
Recall that the new SR pack building equipment is on a newly-created "4th floor" at GF1. That implies that none of the other Grohmann lines needed to be displaced to add the SR pack capacity. This likely means they can now produce 6+K LR/MR packs and ~3K SR packs, to support ~9K total Model 3 production / wk at Fremont.
 
Elon reportedly said his developer AP already performs the FSD traffic light & stop sign and city street driving features promised for later this year. He says his version also already makes its own turns.
Of course, all still with full human supervision and responsibility, but I begin to see why he has confidence in feature complete with human supervision later this year.
 
My prediction is the base model wait times shoot out to months by april or so. Tesla can solve the problem that those are not profitable by simply not building many of them. Instead they will roughly prioritize top down. Many customers may raise their bid as it were to get faster delivery. When demand is proven to be high enough for this price structure and production level they can figure out what to do about it. It's easier to get a stable demand picture when the offering itself is stable. I think all their price tinkering and reservation lists and tax changes leaves them shooting in the dark.

I am fairly certain global demand is above 7k for the current offer and current rebates.

Not sure what to make of the huge s and x cuts though. Not sure why demand collapsed so fast. We might just be early in ev adoption curve and self cannibalizing.
 
A few selected posts on batteries:

MR is an underpopulated LR. No reason SR can't be an underpopulated SR+.

I'm betting neither, and here's my bet. This is speculation.

1 - The new Grohmann pack machine is working.
2 - It can be programmed to put any number of "blanks" into the same pack case, thus giving packs with fewer cells in a very customizable fashion.

My guess is the 220 is a depopulated 240. Tesla can not afford to give away 2170 cells, esp. when there is no upgrade available to pay for the extra cost of cells.

If it were depopulated, wouldn't the weight be different? The MR is lighter than the LR RWD.

Granted, there's other reasons to be suspicious of the weight numbers on Tesla's website - the SR+ having 12-way power seats should make it heavier than the SR, and the LR RWD is listed as the same as the LR AWD (yeah, no) - but right now, they're claimed as identical.

On the sales model:

Musk memo to employees leaked, says 82% of customers bought without a test drive and 78% bought online.

Elon Musk just sent this memo to employees about the cheaper Model 3 and store closures

Doesn't seem worth it having stores with *those* percentages. Expanding the return period to 7 days / 1000 miles will definitely help sway some, and there will still be some galleries for people to check the cars out (probably in the biggest cities, maybe 1 each in NY, Chicago, LA).

Wrt the shops. Word of mouth clearly is the best sales tactic ever for Tesla. I do not know one person who drove the car without immediately wanting to own one. In areas with dense Tesla ownership (California, Norway, the Netherlands, Hong Kong, ...) word of mouth is enough to generate the sales leads. If you are a professional in those countries, you know someone who will be a brand advocate period. In many other countries I am not so convinced this is already the case. Just over the border of the Netherlands in Belgium I regularly meet people who fall straight into the target consumer group but who have no experience at all with Tesla and, crucially, don't know anyone who'd demonstrate the car to them. I am not convinced that in those circumstances word of mouth is enough to grow sales as rapidly as Tesla's ambitions, not because of the car, but because of lack of mouths.

So, there's always things like Tesla's existing test drive events (which have been S/X-only so far, as far as I'm aware) for getting the cars in front of people in areas that haven't reached critical mass yet. Additionally, there's always things like auto shows (including the lower-tier local ones that are usually the domain of dealers), if you want to get butts in seats without the capital and operational expenses of a full showroom - this kind of thing could actually make auto shows relevant once more (even the big international shows are decreasingly relevant).

I do also suspect that right now, Tesla probably doesn't need to worry as much about that - they probably have enough demand backlog for a while that they can run on sight-unseen sales and word-of-mouth sales. However, it wouldn't be a bad idea for them to make sure cars are in front of people in less Tesla-friendly markets, where word-of-mouth doesn't have critical mass, specifically to help that critical mass occur earlier and keep the order flow stabilized.

Fred...

To be honest, I can’t stand these constant price changes. It’s happening almost every month and it is getting so complicated to navigate.

Never mind that that's what conventional automakers do (adjusting prices to react to production costs, supply, and demand), they just don't tell you that they do it (or they do, but it's couched in rebate and financing deal language off of the base price), and their dealers can lie and not pass the savings on.
 
I have checked again and a fully-loaded XP100DL (sans FSD) is €64k cheaper than yesterday.

I'm surprised this isn't headline news...

I've reached out to Tesla to see if this is an error, but no response as of yet.

How's the pricing in the US?

upload_2019-3-1_12-39-25.png
 
XPDL starts at $119,000 (before savings) in the US.

Is that the same, or similar as before? And that's without sales tax, which are included in the EU pricing (20%ish)

It has to be an error in their database, but if so then they need to adapt it pretty quick or would likely need to honour any orders at these prices.

I regularly look at the XP100DL pricing as I have one myself, and I guarantee that it was €174k until today.

Which is one hell of a premium over the US model.
 
As I have in this matter, write those who represent you in Congress.
I do that all the time. Their replies are either BS or FU. Due to gerrymandering and voter suppression they don't care even remotely about voters' opinions. That won't stop me from writing, but it will probably put me first in line for the gas chambers once those are implemented.
 
Yep, you guessed it. Luckily in the 11 months I've had mine I haven't required any service (not counting the subwoofer issue that was just an OTA update issue and solution) so I'm not sure if that's even an option. It might be but it's still not very conveniently located and I might also have a problem driving a loaner over the border. But I actually did visit that location prior to configuring my car so I could see all of the colors in person.
I once took my car to the Springfield NJ SC as well. That one goes out a few hours from your place but avoids the border of course. Hopefully the mobile TSLA techs come out to see you. Maybe they'll bring you a Powerwall at the same time from Gig2.
 
That seems like a court fight waiting to happen.

I can see a judge saying a service vehicle is a service facility.

Well Tesla is already suing Michigan because MI would not grant a dealership or repair center license.
I believe the rules are technically about operating a car repair shop. So if they operate a car repair shop in Toledo which happens to send repairmen across the border to Michigan, the rules do not apply.

If either if you want to get technical :):
445.1564
(4) "Motor vehicle service and repair facility" means a motor vehicle repair facility, as defined in section 2 of the motor vehicle service and repair act, 1974 PA 300, MCL 257.1302. The term does not include a motor vehicle dealer performing maintenance, diagnosis, vehicle body work, repairs, or other service or repair work on motor vehicles under the terms of a dealer agreement.
Which states
(m) "Facility" or "motor vehicle repair facility" means a place of business that is required to register under this act and that, for compensation, is engaged in the business of performing, or employs individuals who perform, maintenance, diagnosis, vehicle body work, or repair service, or, beginning July 1, 2016, BAIID service, on a motor vehicle. The term does not include any of the following:

If anything, mobile service would run afoul of zoning laws on vehicle repair (as would on-site glass repair)
 
  • Informative
Reactions: neroden and SO16
Update - Tesla just confirmed to be the pricing is correct!!!

Confirmation of price decreases, I know I'm going on about it, but how can they reduce that much for S/XP?

Vincent on Twitter

View attachment 381832
A bit concerning to be honest. I don't see how they guided for only 70-100k S and X this year after these huge discounts.
Refresh cominig perhaps?
 
It depends on if the cost of cells is less than the cost of having different types of battery packs to install. This equates to additional inventory and production line change.

The exterior of the pack is identical, GF1 just loads it differently. Inventory wise, it only requires a separation of the two stacks of packs. Not a big problem, esp since the at least 3 pack types now.
@bhtooefr you missed my post saying empty cells could be close to the weight of full ones. (Could even be un-formed rejects than do not get connected electrically)
 
Update - Tesla just confirmed to be the pricing is correct!!!

Confirmation of price decreases, I know I'm going on about it, but how can they reduce that much for S/XP?

Vincent on Twitter

View attachment 381832

One possible reason is an imminent S/X interior refresh. To avoid pissing off customers who placed their order just before the refresh, they empty the pipeline with lower prices for the old interior and/or have an interim period of lower pricing. If this is the case, [certain] people [like Fred] who recently ordered an S/X will complain about the higher price they paid but whatcha gonna do, you can't keep everyone happy.

I was about to order an M3P but now I have to reconsider getting an S instead.
 
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Update - Tesla just confirmed to be the pricing is correct!!!

Confirmation of price decreases, I know I'm going on about it, but how can they reduce that much for S/XP?

Vincent on Twitter

View attachment 381832

This has got to be a sign of imminent S/X refresh!

Clear the pipeline (cars, parts, etc) at cost-plus and then launch the refreshed S/X range.

FOMO for me....need to replace my current lease with a MS this summer and now have to wait for news....


Great pricing for those that don’t care about getting the latest/greatest!