Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobos]

when my bank have added the new shares but haven’t adjusted the shareprice yet

View attachment 581921

Yeah my account has also increased 5 times since I went to bed early friday night EU time. I suppose I'm going to have the mother of all drops on sunday or monday, but I can enjoy it for today

 

[RobStark]

Yes, and new car sales have been declining. Seba's disruption is essentially robotaxis. This could definitely collapse new car sales.

They are down because of COVID and related shutdowns.

They are not collapsing at the rate of 80-90% by 2025 pre covid.

Robotaxis aren't collapsing ICEv sales 80-90% by 2025.

There are limits to how many ICEv can be made. It is mining and chemical processing. Not reluctant dealers and slow moving legacy automakers.

 

[mrmage]

I have never considered writing calls or puts because of the increased risk associated. But giving the upcoming 5:1 split and the fact this forum is very bullish I am surprised how much I hear about people writing covered calls but not about writing puts. With the split bringing the cost of a put being exercised to ~400x100 or $40,000k could someone advise as to why as a Tesla bull writing a put would be a bad idea. If it's not exercised you get to keep the premium. If it is exercised you have to buy TSLA, and if you believe the long term thesis you would be happy to do so any way. Is there a downside to this idea that I am not thinking about properly?

You could in theory write one weekly put a week and pull in maybe 1,000 dollars a week or so, and if you are forced to buy, you are buying something you believe has long term value otherwise.

I personally won't do this until next year if I do for various tax reasons, but I was curious on other peoples takes.

Puts tie up as much money as covered calls and have less upside. Using SP today around $2200 with options 5 months from now (Jan 2021):

1. Writing a put strike 2200 Jan 2021 ($427 premium) at expiration nets:
@SP 2500: nets $427 / $2200 => 19% ROI
@SP 2200: nets $427 / $2200 => 19% ROI

2. A covered call strike 2500 ($338 premium + 300 OTM) at expiration nets:
@SP 2500: 638 / 2200 = => 29% ROI
@SP 2200: 338 / 2200 = 338 / 2200 => 15% ROI

3. A bull call spread 1500c / 2500c ($500 premium) at expiration nets:
@SP 2500 500 / 500 => 100% ROI.
@SP 2200 200 / 500 => 40% ROI.

If TSLA drops a lot (e.g. 25%), writing puts is the safest. But as a bull, I assume TSLA will rise most the time in which case call spreads offer superior returns. When there are pullbacks, I'll buy naked calls. When there aren't any pullbacks, I favor spreads.

 

[SPadival]

I can never bring myself to buy $TSLA puts (or buy $AMZN stock)..it feels dirty to me.

I would rather buy LEAPS when the SP goes down. This worked great for me when the SP went down during COVID downturn

 

[Prunesquallor]

One of the Brains Behind Tesla Found a New Way to Make Electric Cars Cheaper

One of the Brains Behind Tesla Found a New Way to Make Electric Cars Cheaper

Good article on JB Straubel.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

The hatred people have for elon muskler is so irrational and dumb. I tweeted that they might have to do some mental gymnastics to keep hating him in neuralink cures blindness or paralysis. I immediately get told 'he is a vile person I will always hate'. By someone who has never met the guy, or achieved **** all personally.

I used to try and be understanding, but hell I don't care any more. I own tesla stock. If every single person in the legacy auto, energy and transport industries loses their job and life's savings, I don't care any more. Its not my job to warn them of the CLEARLY SIGNPOSTED freight train that is going to destroy their industries and replace them with something much better.

 

[T@oo]

The hatred people have for elon muskler is so irrational and dumb. I tweeted that they might have to do some mental gymnastics to keep hating him in neuralink cures blindness or paralysis. I immediately get told 'he is a vile person I will always hate'. By someone who has never met the guy, or achieved **** all personally.

I used to try and be understanding, but hell I don't care any more. I own tesla stock. If every single person in the legacy auto, energy and transport industries loses their job and life's savings, I don't care any more. Its not my job to warn them of the CLEARLY SIGNPOSTED freight train that is going to destroy their industries and replace them with something much better.

I have serveral relatives and friends working for "old" german auto. They were very dismissive about electric propulsion generally and Tesla specifically until recently (12 month). Some have since then driven my Model 3P, some took a ride, some not. Since then, one has bought a Model 3 AWD, some will buy a Model Y ASAP, some look after other electric offerings, some will watch the progress. But all do not dismiss anymore. Not one left. Even showing outright respect for Tesla. What a difference a year makes.

 

[juanmedina]

Is anyone's balance on their accounts all screwed up with the split? I wish it was true I have multiple millions. Our accounts are with Vanguard.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Is anyone balance on their accounts all screwed up with the split? I wish it was true I have multiple millions.

E*Trade looks interesting this morning

 

[SO16]

Is anyone's balance on their accounts all screwed up with the split? I wish it was true I have multiple millions. Our accounts are with Vanguard.

I see the same. I use Vanguard.

 

[Singuy]

My Robinhood account lol.

Slow clap on the split.

 

[UkNorthampton]

They are down because of COVID and related shutdowns.

They are not collapsing at the rate of 80-90% by 2025 pre covid.

Robotaxis aren't collapsing ICEv sales 80-90% by 2025.

There are limits to how many ICEv can be made. It is mining and chemical processing. Not reluctant dealers and slow moving legacy automakers.

I put a disagree as I believe people will put off purchases of new ICE cars for several reasons. Uncertainty of best powertrain, whether ICE will pay extra or diesels banned from city centres (Bristol, Oxford, Birmingham just in uk), economic uncertainty, enjoying less pollution, demonising (rightly) ICE.

Car sales in many European markets are
often dominated by company cars and incentives push EVs.

Later this will translate to lower residuals and higher lease costs. People will keep used ICE longer until more sure. At this point EVs are cheaper for total cost of ownership (arguably depending on model), soon EVs will have lower sticker price, lower lease costs, lower maintenance costs, running costs, better depreciation and recognised as more convenient and a better solution.

Used ICE owner retention, rideshare, new EVs will displace new ICE sales. Buying ICE will be considered eccentric in just a few years. In my opinion.

Eventually it will get harder to service and fuel ICE, longer timeframe though.

 

[UkNorthampton]

One of the Brains Behind Tesla Found a New Way to Make Electric Cars Cheaper

One of the Brains Behind Tesla Found a New Way to Make Electric Cars Cheaper

Good article on JB Straubel.

It talks mostly about recycling car batteries but at the start talks about iPhones and consumer electronics.

In the short term I guess that there are plenty of these small devices to recycle which I hadn't considered. Cars come later and perhaps the additional raw material mining will much less.

 

[Tslynk67]

I put a disagree as I believe people will put off purchases of new ICE cars for several reasons. Uncertainty of best powertrain, whether ICE will pay extra or diesels banned from city centres (Bristol, Oxford, Birmingham just in uk), economic uncertainty, enjoying less pollution, demonising (rightly) ICE.

Car sales in many European markets are
often dominated by company cars and incentives push EVs.

Later this will translate to lower residuals and higher lease costs. People will keep used ICE longer until more sure. At this point EVs are cheaper for total cost of ownership (arguably depending on model), soon EVs will have lower sticker price, lower lease costs, lower maintenance costs, running costs, better depreciation and recognised as more convenient and a better solution.

Used ICE owner retention, rideshare, new EVs will displace new ICE sales. Buying ICE will be considered eccentric in just a few years. In my opinion.

Eventually it will get harder to service and fuel ICE, longer timeframe though.

Same in Belgium - a company car is provided with almost any job as it's an easy tax-saving for the company and a perk for employees. EV's will be a no-brainer for company cars going forwards as the tax is almost zero for company and employee, plus the good residuals will bring the lease-cost down.

 

[Tslynk67]

No changes in my account yet... Bwah, I want my fwee shares!!!

I did, at least, take screen-shots at close yesterday, in anticipation of a cock-up...

 

[CorneliusXX]

E*Trade looks interesting this morning

View attachment 581937

IG markets is less interesting

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I put a disagree as I believe people will put off purchases of new ICE cars for several reasons. Uncertainty of best powertrain, whether ICE will pay extra or diesels banned from city centres (Bristol, Oxford, Birmingham just in uk), economic uncertainty, enjoying less pollution, demonising (rightly) ICE.

Car sales in many European markets are
often dominated by company cars and incentives push EVs.

Later this will translate to lower residuals and higher lease costs. People will keep used ICE longer until more sure. At this point EVs are cheaper for total cost of ownership (arguably depending on model), soon EVs will have lower sticker price, lower lease costs, lower maintenance costs, running costs, better depreciation and recognised as more convenient and a better solution.

Used ICE owner retention, rideshare, new EVs will displace new ICE sales. Buying ICE will be considered eccentric in just a few years. In my opinion.

Eventually it will get harder to service and fuel ICE, longer timeframe though.

I think mass ICE is on its way out in all but very limited scenarios. Those scenarios are going to ultimately end up being so small, that they will not be of significant impact to the mission.

Take for example what happened to horses when the automobile arrived. The vast majority were no longer in use in the same way as before ( daily transportation ). But some people - even today — have horses. Not to sit in traffic on the highway with, but for various other reasons; the vast majority of which are highly limited in their daily use. Ie pets, companionship, hobbies, passion etc

I think an element of ICE vehicles that will be with us in rather small numbers for some time to come will be the enthusiast / collectable, exotic classic cars.

Much like highly complicated, expensive to make acquire and maintain Swiss watches were not rendered obsolete by the iPhone, (even though it’s my “go-to” when I need to know the time), to the contrary - there has been a continued niche interest in those old mechanical watches that for many; is not a daily use hobby or driven by a strict functional need to know what time it is.

it’s a passion/ hobby and will remain niche.

The good news for the mission is these cars will be driven so little that their miles driven will become a rounding error over time.

In fact many exotic / collectable ICE vehicles are driven so little now compared to mass market vehicles. Even Elon has 1 or 2 still. If I remember correctly he has a Model T and an old Jaguar E-type. But his daily is a Model S performance / P100d.

Billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals he owns two gas cars and one is his ‘first love’


And with autonomy it may become tougher and tougher to find a place you are allowed to drive as a human over time. Perhaps like horses - limited to tracks and private property mostly - but not on highways.

I hope to be able to drive myself around for some time because I enjoy doing it- but am also excited about the future of autonomy. I think there’s room for both ( though ultimately - down the road - will be mostly autonomy )

 

[MikeAtkinson]

haha yeah i logged in to Fidelity and my account balances are VERY VERY SILLY.

Logged in an my account has gone to zero!

That was expected as bank warned that it would happen, still difficult to see over half my net worth vanish.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Yes, bankruptcy of the ICE-makers will come not when their customers buy a Tesla instead, but when enough customers merely delay buying a new car until they can get a Tesla. Then the bankruptcies will cause other customers to wait before buying. This is a virtuous cycle for Tesla and a death spiral for ICE, and it is coming sooner than most people think. ICE-maker margins are too thin for them to survive much loss of sales.

This is precisely the tactic that legacy auto has been trying to use over the years. They announce that they have cars coming out soon with Tesla beating specs, hoping that people will delay buying a Tesla. Of course these cars are either then continuously delayed or their specs never even come close to a Tesla when they are actually released.

 

[Gilesmiles]

No changes in my account yet... Bwah, I want my fwee shares!!!

I did, at least, take screen-shots at close yesterday, in anticipation of a cock-up...

same here, screenshots of all positions. IBKR is not even letting me log in today.

Only 41 hours of waiting left before Frankfurt will give us the first indication.

My name is .... and I’m a TSLAholic.