Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Agreed. Elon Musk said in the video in Berlin:

It's a radical redesign of the core technology of building a car. And some of this when I do Battery Day later in September I'll talk about what we're going to be doing here in Berlin but it will be the first time that there is going to be a transformation in the core structural design of the vehicle. It's quite a big thing.​

My read on this is a revolutionary and faster way to install batteries in the structure of the vehicle that will drive down production costs. Else why would he talk about it for Battery Day? Batteries and drive unit(s) are the "core technology" of a BEV, no?

With pre-market at $407, 9/22 Battery Day cannot come soon enough!

Think this is about production of vehicle separate from battery. Is about disrupting assembly line technology with ever more complete automation which is something else the OEMs appear to have been sleeping on the past 20 years.

Tesla never stopped working on the alien dreadnought after the disaster of the Model 3 launch. Based on their pace of innovation think they are getting results e.g. casting machine.

 

[Sudre]

I have a busy day today and I hate adding a post without reading all but time is short.

I don't think this is manipulation. As retail slowly country by country is getting their shares they are selling some of them. I know ya'll believe in hodl forever but that is not the real world. That includes hedge funds and such that suddenly went over some RULE they have. YES this action is multiplied by the shorting but the MM and the THEYS know what is going to happen so it is expected they are going to make their $$$ shorting when they know it's going down anyway.

Max Pain has remained pretty steady. It is still around $440 as it was yesterday and was enough around that the day before that.
I think (and no one can KNOW) THEY will still end this week around $440 if they can.
If THEY were planing big moves this week they would have been moving that max pain up or down like they do every week.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Playful but frankly being a bit of a dick there. If this was me I would be super angry. OF COURSE there should be a confirmation to spend that sort of money. Tesla are potential pissing off a lot of people there for zero gain. He should have apologised, refunded the dude immediately and pledged to fix the app.

Won’t they just refund it if he caught it right away? Is there a time limit?

Also, how does one butt dial it. Could be an elaborate ruse to get it past the wife. Not that I would ever do that. But is there a set procedure for this upgrade approach? If not, there should be. Again, not that I would ever do that. I’m just asking for a friend.

 

[elasalle]

September rebalancing has a 2-week lead-time, I see no reason why a public holiday would change that. You think the SPY guys give a single duck about EU trading on Monday?

I think they do. Unless they want to buy at higher prices on next Tue Morning

Sept 8th (some lead time before balancing) or Sept 18th (on day of balancing), or not this time.

 

[traxila]

September rebalancing has a 2-week lead-time, I see no reason why a public holiday would change that. You think the SPY guys give a single duck about EU trading on Monday?

Yes I think they would. The people that control trillions of dollars in the market HATE being bag holders. The idea that they would drive TSLA up to all time highs filling up their funds and then have it collapse afterwards overly impacting their returns drives them INSANE.

 

[Rohan]

Said this yesterday...Nas is up 0.7%...$TSLA is down 6%....That's not how it works!!!!

The evidence is against you,... sadly

 

[Papafox]

I'd be curious to hear reactions to this Tweet by JRP007. In a nutshell, he's arguing that much of the buying in recent weeks was from hedge funds hoping to engineer a squeeze when S&P500 index funds learn they must acquire TSLA. When Tesla announced the details of their $5 billion cap raise, it became apparent that Tesla was going to do what's necessary to keep a massive squeeze from taking place. Since Tesla's cap raise announcement, we've been seeing a decline in the stock price, which is some of these hedge funds unwinding their positions (still at a profit for most) because the big squeeze plan is going to be foiled by Tesla.

 

[kbM3]

Obviously it's all conjecture (and conjecture without numbers to boot) but it depends on what you mean by "dangerous". I'd argue that if FSD is at the point where interventions are only required once a year, that it will be saving far more lives than it could ever end. Of course that doesn't mean the perception among the public would be good, but that's a different discussion.


I agree. I don't see truly passive funds going through sneaky shenanigans to increase profits which also increases risk. Vanguard won't get more index business if their SP500 fund gains .1% more in returns for the month, but might have issues if they screw up and cause .1% lower returns from not following the index.

‘Why? Elon stated their current bleeding edge alpha almost makes it to work without intervention. That’s a once a day intervention rate, not a once a year rate.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Not sure if I follow your question - there arent two different entities in the equation.

Person A had 100 shares from 6/1.
A sells 50 shares on 9/1
A buys 50 shares on 9/1
The 50 piece sell will settle on 9/3.
Person A should always have the ability to tick off the 50 against (i) 50/100 from 6/1 or (ii) 50/50 from 9/1.

Of course all of this has to be in the same account, and the quantities have to match.

Okay, I may be really ignorant, but

Suppose 1 of the shares A sold is serial number 123. That share got sold to B. How do you get that share 123 back from B to A so that "nothing happened" from a tax standpoint? Meanwhile, A bought share SN 456 from C. How do you get share 456 back to C?

Alternatively, is it just the broker saying "I'm swapping the serial numbers of your equivalent number of shares to do you a favour, and 'Bob's your Uncle'"?

This may all be academic if the OP got the okay for their reversal.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

First time unemployment 881K expected 950K.
Surprised market did not bump up.

Market only goes up if unemployment claims go up....

 

[kbM3]

Yeah I'm not fine with Tesla doing 100+ billion in annual revenue while being valued between 250 and 450 billion

If Elon was serious in the last conference call about running Tesla at a 1-2% profit, do you really think Wall St. would value Tesla with a P/E ratio of over 500?

That’s just a single example of what could happen.

 

[traxila]

I'd be curious to hear reactions to this Tweet by JRP007. In a nutshell, he's arguing that much of the buying in recent weeks was from hedge funds hoping to engineer a squeeze when S&P500 index funds learn they must acquire TSLA. When Tesla announced the details of their $5 billion cap raise, it became apparent that Tesla was going to do what's necessary to keep a massive squeeze from taking place. Since Tesla's cap raise announcement, we've been seeing a decline in the stock price, which is some of these hedge funds unwinding their positions (still at a profit for most) because the big squeeze plan is going to be foiled by Tesla.

Do you think that 5B would be enough for that?

Or is it the sentiment that matters, that TSLA is willing to play ball with the index funds at all?

 

[DurandalAI]

Playful but frankly being a bit of a dick there. If this was me I would be super angry. OF COURSE there should be a confirmation to spend that sort of money. Tesla are potential pissing off a lot of people there for zero gain. He should have apologised, refunded the dude immediately and pledged to fix the app.

Dude should put a lock code on his phone.

 

[jhm]

In my opinion Cleese is right, except for the implication that all Americans say the nonsensical version, "I could care less." In my circle we say, "I couldn't care less." His first three wives were American, so I suspect he chastised at least one of them for the silly usage. The improper form was a pet peeve of my late mother. The original form is actually related to an earlier expression, "I couldn't agree more." That one never became degraded to "I could agree more." But the term under discussion did become degraded to the form we now hear from some people. As Cleese cleverly explains, the improper form is the opposite of what one actually means. Too many people repeat a nonsensical expression that they have heard from someone else, without stopping to think about the true meaning of the words they are saying. Then it is spread to others like a virus.

Bless your heart.

 

[traxila]

TSLA holding up on renewed selling in the QQQs past few minutes. Good indication that it will spring forward if macros settle down.

 

[replicant]

I'd be curious to hear reactions to this Tweet by JRP007. In a nutshell, he's arguing that much of the buying in recent weeks was from hedge funds hoping to engineer a squeeze when S&P500 index funds learn they must acquire TSLA. When Tesla announced the details of their $5 billion cap raise, it became apparent that Tesla was going to do what's necessary to keep a massive squeeze from taking place. Since Tesla's cap raise announcement, we've been seeing a decline in the stock price, which is some of these hedge funds unwinding their positions (still at a profit for most) because the big squeeze plan is going to be foiled by Tesla.

Impossible. We're talking about a stock price decline, it can only be caused by manipulators. Ask this board /s

Edit: I agree with JRP007 on this one, for once. The frontrunners were trying too hard, and Tesla does not support speculation. That's the board set up the *company* to profit from the squeeze (or at least smooth it) instead of letting short-term traders play with the stock. Skimming some billions from a squeeze provide some cushions but also calm the market when some Tesla workers might have trouble focusing on their work when the value of their stock options explodes daily. The company and the board fight for a transition to renewable, not to make quick capital gains.

 

[SO16]

Playful but frankly being a bit of a dick there. If this was me I would be super angry. OF COURSE there should be a confirmation to spend that sort of money. Tesla are potential pissing off a lot of people there for zero gain. He should have apologised, refunded the dude immediately and pledged to fix the app.

Farther down, the “dude” received a refund in less than 30 minutes. But I do agree they need to change the app.

Twitter

 

[st_lopes]

So when there's a massive sell off, it's manipulation; but when it's a massive buy, it's legit.

Many have also said upward pressure can be manipulation as well, particularly given that several institutions have direct visibility to order flow and can see where large sell limit orders are accumulating. When you have visibility to that kind of information, it becomes very tempting (albeit illegal and unethical) to front-run transactions or to set up positions that hedge the direction of a deliberate sell limit triggering. HFTs live on that volatility, so yes, both up and down swings can be manipulation and the SEC does not have the resources or punitive measures (their fines are laughable) to actually correct that behavior.

The theories here that Tesla is often subject to significant, pronounced, and deliberate declines intended to allow HFTs and MMs to profit from short term large swings is absolutely valid and the data over the years of following TSLA definitely adds credibility to those theories.

 

[Nocturnal]

‘Why? Elon stated their current bleeding edge alpha almost makes it to work without intervention. That’s a once a day intervention rate, not a once a year rate.

Once a year/month intervention was not my suggestion, but the person I was responding to.

Dude should put a lock code on his phone.

True, but Tesla should require a password verification before letting you spend 2k on your phone. Huge miss on Tesla's part.

 

[Twooz]

I'd be curious to hear reactions to this Tweet by JRP007. In a nutshell, he's arguing that much of the buying in recent weeks was from hedge funds hoping to engineer a squeeze when S&P500 index funds learn they must acquire TSLA. When Tesla announced the details of their $5 billion cap raise, it became apparent that Tesla was going to do what's necessary to keep a massive squeeze from taking place. Since Tesla's cap raise announcement, we've been seeing a decline in the stock price, which is some of these hedge funds unwinding their positions (still at a profit for most) because the big squeeze plan is going to be foiled by Tesla.

I'd love to get insight into this as well. The only question then remains - when do we get support for the stock price in this free fall?