Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Toyota sold 24,545 Camrys in the U.S. in November to make it the best selling car in the U.S.

Tesla just delivered 25,250 Model 3's in the U.S. in December.

There is a possibility (small) that the Model 3 could be the best selling passenger car in the U.S. in December.

RT

Ah, now Toyota/Lexus sales and market campaign is making sense, I finally understand what a “December to Remember” event means now

 

[KarenRei]

Crocodile Dundee "that's not a troll, here's a Troll"View attachment 365507

Hey, I know those guys....

(Laugavegur )

 

[tivoboy]

How exactly would GM prevent independent dealers from selling cars they have in inventory?

Incentive them with $$ for the good of the many. Based on the timing, it really couldn't have taken too much $$ and coordination (although the real time nature of the systems for inventory, sales pipeline and communication just AREN'T there at a GM vs. a Tesla (AIO) model.

At this point, for GM they will have lost an entire quarter of sales WITH the 7500 federal tax credit and for the Bolt it might be relevant. Now, MANY buyers might not be able to take advantage of the credit, more so for a Bolt owner than a Tesla (even model 3 owner).

But, there must have been an oppty to throttle a TAD and shirt some of the 10's of sales they may have had into 2019.

 

[Ulmo]

Do people ignore holidays during this period? Assuming Tesla has 3 8 hour shifts per day I expect that Christmas cost 5 shifts and Thanksgiving a similar number. Tesla burst rate at end of Q3 was 5K. We knew the following week they slowed. The workers couldnt keep up without line improvements and didnt they shut down lines some to make improvements early in the quarter as well. What is important is the rate in December before Christmas week.

Yes, they take a few weeks of holidays in November-December-January.

 

[ZsoZso]

For those of you who do not understand why new record production and deliveries numbers in Q4 are bad news and reason for TSLA price drop, let me re-iterate the Bear-logic (please, excuse the oxymoron), in 3 simple steps:

1. Tesla loses money on every car they sell
2. Production and delivery numbers increase => more money is lost
3. Bankwupcy is imminent !

 

[mongo]

Shutting down a line is perfectly legal. Everywhere. No law, anywhere, makes you keep producing a vehicle you don't want to produce.

Sure you can cancel a vehicle all together, and you can pre-plan a line shutdown for oversupply or change-over reasons, but that is not what you wrote:

They could have just shut down / slowed down the line to rob them of supply, while keeping track of how much inventory their dealerships had on-hand.

Reread subsection (c)

Refuse to deliver to a new motor vehicle dealer in reasonable quantities and within a reasonable time after receipt of the dealer's order, any new motor vehicles that are covered by the dealer agreement and specifically publicly advertised in this state by the manufacturer as available for immediate delivery.

The only way GM can suddenly starve "rob" dealers is to say the car is no longer available (cancel the vehicle/ no longer available for immediate delivery). To do so and then start up the line again would fall afoul of sub part (a) (if the initial unannounced stoppage did not)

(a) Adopt, change, establish, or implement a plan or system for the allocation and distribution of new motor vehicles to new motor vehicle dealers that is arbitrary or capricious or based on unreasonable sales and service standards, or modify an existing plan or system that causes the plan or system to be arbitrary or capricious or based on unreasonable sales and service standards.

Temporarily preventing dealers from making sales for the benefit of the OEM, is capricious and unreasonable.

 

[scaesare]

They're not even averaging 5k a week anywhere in the quarter based on these Model 3 production number.

There's lots of evidence that the average for the month of Dec was in the 6K/wk neighborhood.

December is "anywhere in the quarter", no?

 

[Ulmo]

Inventory != undelivered sold vehicles. But what's ridiculous about this story is that Tesla had previously announced plans to maintain a small amount of inventory of common configurations to speed the conversion of sales to deliveries. This story is basically:

Tesla: "We plan to do X; it'll be good for us and our customers."
Media: "Okay, thanks for letting us know."
Tesla: "We did X."
Media: "OMG, everyone freak out!!!"

Media does exactly the same thing to Trump.

 

[SpaceCash]

My hope is that we touch 250 in the Como g weeks so I can load up, sold 2 times at peak at 330 and 370

Posts like this are cancer. Arbitrary and bearish to the extreme. 250 is a meaningless SP target, and every carebear in history claims to have magically just sold at all the recent highs. Post screenshots of your transactions?

 

[Garlands]

Hello, I have a dumb question regarding Elon's statement:

“it occurs to me that, even if the only thing - like even if this was the only thing that Tesla did different was to shorten the time from factory to end customer. In any given company that would outcompete all of the companies over time. It would not be a contest”.

What is the real benefit of this for a company that already has spare cash in the bank? Would it just be the interest they can gain on a certain dollar amount that the would be getting faster?

Thanks!

 

[EngRyan]

After a wild ride with TSLA options in 2018 I told myself I'd just stick to stock for a while. Aaand then we have good P&D news and a drop in price and I couldn't help myself, took a small position in march 350 calls. I'm a weak man...hopefully it pays off. haha

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Hello, I have a dumb question regarding Elon's statement:

“it occurs to me that, even if the only thing - like even if this was the only thing that Tesla did different was to shorten the time from factory to end customer. In any given company that would outcompete all of the companies over time. It would not be a contest”.

What is the real benefit of this for a company that already has spare cash in the bank? Would it just be the interest they can gain on a certain dollar amount that the would be getting faster?

Thanks!

His comment follows a comment that they usually have 60-day terms with suppliers, so if they can be quick from order to delivery, they would have the customer's money before they need to pay the suppliers.

The implication is that they'd be able to grow as rapidly as demand allows and suppliers can keep up.

 

[reddit_tl]

where is the SP going short-term, e.g. 1 week?
I see it going further down. It looks like too much optimism remained today. Bot some calls at around 300 and sold today around 310.

Waiting for further drop...

 

[Fact Checking]

Hello, I have a dumb question regarding Elon's statement:

“it occurs to me that, even if the only thing - like even if this was the only thing that Tesla did different was to shorten the time from factory to end customer. In any given company that would outcompete all of the companies over time. It would not be a contest”.

What is the real benefit of this for a company that already has spare cash in the bank? Would it just be the interest they can gain on a certain dollar amount that the would be getting faster?

Thanks!

They can use the extra cash to expand production, expand infrastructure (Supercharger network, service centers, etc.), do more R&D, etc.

Since working capital is in the exponent of the growth formula, the firm with the highest capital efficiency gains dominance 10 years down the road.

 

[CorneliusXX]

where is the SP going short-term, e.g. 1 week?
I see it going further down. It looks like too much optimism remained today. Bot some calls at around 300 and sold today around 310.

Waiting for further drop...

I see some sort of bird.

 

[Ulmo]

Hardly a disappointing Delivery Report, although I'd hoped for 100k, still, it's higher than Q3.

Interesting snippet: "More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders."

Implication is that many reservation holders are waiting for the base $35k, which will sell like hot-cakes and by further extrapolation to the population in general.

A lot of that demand was soaked up by $7,500 rebate incentive, and now while the $35K demand is building up again, Tesla is turning its guns on international, which will get some of the more expensive Model 3's. Then, by the time international is dealt with, they can come out with the $35K model.

In parallel, Tesla is working on increasing the throughput of their factory and decreasing the costs for making the Model 3 Standard Range so that the $35K version can be more profitable than it would have been last quarter. A lot of the manufacturing cost reductions for the Mid Range did not take full advantage of the cost savings that the Standard Range Model 3 will target. Tesla has some months of international higher price Model 3's to sell while they learn about making lower cost Standard Range Model 3's.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I see some sort of bird.

Eh, I'll give him/her the benefit of the doubt for the moment. But I am getting a concern troll vibe. With that said, there are some cautious bulls 'round these parts (me being one of them), so I think we shouldn't be so quick as to immediately squash some bearish sentiment. After all, I too do think we could go lower before we go higher.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

where is the SP going short-term, e.g. 1 week?
I see it going further down. It looks like too much optimism remained today. Bot some calls at around 300 and sold today around 310.

Waiting for further drop...

If anybody could tell you that with any certainty, they wouldn’t, and instead would make themselves rich beyond reason. The best you can do is look at what happened after Q3 P/D announcement and assume it’ll act the same way now. I remember it went down(and capitalized on that today), but don’t remember exactly how long that lasted.

 

[NicoV]

Hello, I have a dumb question regarding Elon's statement:

“it occurs to me that, even if the only thing - like even if this was the only thing that Tesla did different was to shorten the time from factory to end customer. In any given company that would outcompete all of the companies over time. It would not be a contest”.

What is the real benefit of this for a company that already has spare cash in the bank? Would it just be the interest they can gain on a certain dollar amount that the would be getting faster?

Thanks!

They could build more factories. Widen the gap with the competition.

 

[Ulmo]

Fraudulent headline to get algorithms to sell instantly.
This is so obvious

Happens every quarter.