Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Yeah, I'm not sure where CNBC gets the 3K/wk initial production. I think they are conflating that number with initial export rate to China from Fremont (Q1 2019).

I don't believe the initial export rate to China was announced.

However, not making higher-trim models in GF3 should help the current demand.
Also, looks like they are not getting MRs initially similar to Europe if this is correct: Tesla plans to begin Model 3 deliveries to China in March

I also like how the GF3 will make just SRs and be profitable a year from now. This is a nice goal to reach. Even though Sandy Munro said they can easily cut 20% from car cost on labor etc. by going to China.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC just now teased that it will soon cover the Tesla groundbreaking in Shanghai.

The related segment was primarily a discussion about the wisdom of Tesla manufacturing in Shanghai. Their biggest concern was potential Chinese theft of Tesla intellectual property (IP). They seemed to be unaware that Tesla patents have been open sourced for nearly five years, and that unlike the case with other American automakers, Tesla will be allowed to operate a factory in China without a Chinese partner.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Actually he said "Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers."

Ah haha, if we get all quotey what Elon actually tweeted was:

• "Shanghai Giga production of Model 3/Y will serve greater China region"
  Elon Musk‏
  
• "Shanghai Giga will produce affordable versions of 3/Y for greater China. All Model S/X & higher cost versions of Model 3/Y will still be built in US for WW market, incl China."
  Elon Musk‏

Notice that you actually dreamed the word "just" into Elon's tweet. But that's okay. The Master Plan Part Deux is coming together nicely, and that's what matters.

Cheers!

 

[jhm]

Atleast for China - I think they will continue to make higher trims in US - because US made cars command a premium in China ?

I wonder how much that premium is worth. It would be more expensive to make, ship and import (duty and taxes). So on top of all that extra cost, the premium would need to be high enough that Tesla nets incremental profit. Anybody got numbers on this?

 

[KarenRei]

If I'm not mistaken, this is the installation of some very hefty pile foundations:

These are what you use when building on really weak, deep sediments. You can build straight into a seabed like this.

 

[Heimdallr]

Related to Giga 3, when does everybody expect any announcements about Giga 4 in Europe? With Tesla's new understanding of working capital, and their declared mission to cut the time from production to delivery to under a week worldwide, plans for a factory in Europe should be very high on the priority list.

 

[Fact Checking]

Ah haha, if we get all quotey what Elon actually tweeted was:

• "Shanghai Giga production of Model 3/Y will serve greater China region"
  Elon Musk‏
  
• "Shanghai Giga will produce affordable versions of 3/Y for greater China. All Model S/X & higher cost versions of Model 3/Y will still be built in US for WW market, incl China."
  Elon Musk‏

Notice that you actually dreamed the word "just" into Elon's tweet. But that's okay. The Master Plan Part Deux is coming together nicely, and that's what matters.

Cheers!

See:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers."​

 

[MP3Mike]

Notice that you actually dreamed the word "just" into Elon's tweet. But that's okay. The Master Plan Part Deux is coming together nicely, and that's what matters.

Nope, direct quote: Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 16h16 hours ago

Replying to @jimcramer

Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers.

Maybe the greater China region includes Japan, etc.?

 

[JollyRoger]

Any possibility all the money being sunk in to the Chinese factory will make the q4 earnings report seem worse?

By this I mean could the shorts spin a story about millions of US dollars being spent on China, taken away from hard working Americans who's jobs would be at risk as Ol Musky should be building in Detroit or something along those crazy lines??

 

[KarenRei]

Related to Giga 3, when does everybody expect any announcements about Giga 4 in Europe? With Tesla's new understanding of working capital, and their declared mission to cut the time from production to delivery to under a week worldwide, plans for a factory in Europe should be very high on the priority list.

Personally, I expect it to run 6-12 months behind China.

 

[MP3Mike]

If cell or batteries or solar panels are not produced, then why call it a Gigafactory?

Maybe because they are going to use Gigawatts of batteries? Or they are going to generate Gigawatts of power from solar cells on the roof?

Or more likely: They will make cells eventually, just not to start with.

 

[lascavarian]

Cramer just supportive of Musk in China on CNBC @ 2:39 ET

 

[M|S|W]

From Vincent youtube channel:

 

[KarenRei]

From Vincent youtube channel:

Low res overhead view:

 

[M3Rider]

Related to Giga 3, when does everybody expect any announcements about Giga 4 in Europe? With Tesla's new understanding of working capital, and their declared mission to cut the time from production to delivery to under a week worldwide, plans for a factory in Europe should be very high on the priority list.

Feels to me like Y should be a higher priority with production expected to start in 1 year.
Also, Semi, truck, and roadster all need local CAPEX. I think Europe's GF4 could wait a bit more, unless mostly financed by a local debt similar to GF3.

 

[RobStark]

Remember, Elon also said Shanghai SR production will supply the Region. So that likely means Korea, Japan, Australia, generally SE Asia.

Elon said " Greater China" in local parlance that means China plus Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macau.

I don't know anyone who includes Korea,Japan,Australia or generally SE Asia as "Greater China." Maybe a few Chinese Generals and Admirals in private.

 

[lklundin]

Charles Mwangi on LinkedIn: "After slightly over 6 years, I have decided to leave Tesla. My time at Tesla has been one of the most enriching and fulfilling experiences in my life. I’ve had the privilege to work alongside the world’s most talented and resilient people, in pursuit of a worthy mission. To my Tesla colleagues. It is amazing how much progress we’ve made. It has been a grueling journey, but definitely one worth making. I will continue cheering you on from the sidelines.Your success is truly the World’s success. In my next journey, I am lucky enough to have found that same inspiration as the early days of Tesla but in a completely different industry. A world-changing human mission. Global scale. A team with a deep commitment to excellence. The Startup I am joining is still under the radar, but I couldn’t be more excited to be joining this team alongside my good friend Shen Jackson."

Senior Director, Engineering at Tesla Motors leaving

While Charles Mwangi says his new, interesting employer still is under the radar he does provide us with one enticing clue.

His good friend, former and now new colleague Shen Jackson is developing a process for physical vapor deposition of the semi-conductor copper indium gallium selenide onto glass, something surely applicable to the production of photovoltaic cells.

So I hope to hear more from these industrious gentlemen.

 

[mrdoubleb]

From Vincent youtube channel:

Shortville Times BREAKING NEWS
Elon Musk will one day step down as CEO of Tesla!

 

[ZachF]

If cell or batteries or solar panels are not produced, then why call it a Gigafactory?

They plan on eventually producing the batteries for the cars produced there on site.

Hell, I think Tesla should rename Fremont Gigafactory 0... I mean, once it hits production of 500k cars a year it'll be producing approximately one gigagram of EVs per year....

 

[jhm]

I don't believe the initial export rate to China was announced.

However, not making higher-trim models in GF3 should help the current demand.
Also, looks like they are not getting MRs initially similar to Europe if this is correct: Tesla plans to begin Model 3 deliveries to China in March

I also like how the GF3 will make just SRs and be profitable a year from now. This is a nice goal to reach. Even though Sandy Munro said they can easily cut 20% from car cost on labor etc. by going to China.

In November Tesla cut its prices in China for the Model S and Model X by 12 to 26 percent in order to make the model more “affordable”—in reaction to the additional tariffs that were levied on U.S imports that made the cars much harder to sell. These official prices for Model 3 likely too reflect such an adjustment, as they're lower than the unconfirmed/projected prices leaked last fall.

Tesla then said that it was absorbing a significant part of the tariff, and said that the matter would force it to speed up investment in its China Gigafactory, to be located near Shanghai.

I don't like the idea of Tesla absorbing a significant part of the tariff LONG-TERM on the X and S. If trade relations don't re-normalize soon, I think Tesla may be pressed into making S and X in China. Musk is sending out signals to contrary right now, but that very well could be political posturing. Trump has a tendency to lash out at companies that move production overseas. So it would be foolish for Musk to provoke political attack on Tesla prematurely. If things don't clear up, then Musk could change his tune and threaten Trump with the prospect of Tesla moving production of high end vehicles to China. But this only becomes a bargaining chip once Tesla has the capability of moving production to China.