Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

My guess is that:

• If the Q4 numbers are good (i.e. better than Q3) then the Q4 earnings report might be released on January 30th (Wednesday), announced on the 28th-29th (Monday-Tuesday).
• If there's some really big negative macro event in the week before, overshadowing the good results, they might delay it by a week to February 6 (Wednesday).

Like if the FBI hauled Trump off in handcuffs during his public address tonight?

Ran into this the other day, from a month ago. In case anyone was thinking about believing the shorts' "Hyundai is going to be a Tesla killer!" tripe:

https://premium.goauto.com.au/low-margin-huge-potential-for-ioniq-hyundai/

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Low margin, huge potential for Ioniq: Hyundai
Sales volume hard to predict but benefits clear to Hyundai with Ioniq, Kona Electric

...

“We have minimal margin, just slightly above breakeven, as it’s a highly competitive market from a pricing standpoint,” Mr Grant said.
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In case anyone has any doubts as to why Hyundai only makes its EVs in tiny volumes, or had entertained any notions about them truly mass-producing them...

Adjusting them to a Model 3-esque profit margin (>20%):

Hyundai Ioniq, without options, times 1,2x: $35778
Hyundai Kona 64kWh, without options, times 1,2x: $43740

(BTW: the US version doesn't even have a battery heater.. nor a Tesla style inverter-heater. No battery heating at all. No remote preheating, either).

Anytime I hear "limited production" in regards to a new EV I think that really means "we aren't planning on this being profitable and/or can't source nearly enough batteries to produce in mass".

 

[Pezpunk]

I think lower accident rate w/o Autopilot is helped by the Forward Collision Warning / Automatic Emergency Braking.

this has absolutely saved me from a fender bender once or twice. is this not a standard feature on other luxury cars nowadays?

 

[Curt Renz]

Tomorrow at 11:00 am EST, CFRA will host a webinar titled, “Is it Time to Buy or Bail?” It will be led by my friend Sam Stovall, who is their chief investment strategist. Don’t be surprised if their answer is the first “B”.

Link to webinar registration: Is it Time to Buy or Bail?

On December 4 (my birthday!), CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson raised his price target on TSLA to $420 from $375. He replaced their retired analyst Efraim Levy who was almost always bearish on TSLA.

Sam and his father Bob were regular guests on my TV show. Bob once let me know that Sam was a placekicker in college. Earlier this NFL season when the Chicago Bears’ placekicker Cody Parkey bounced the ball off of the upright four times during a single game, with tongue in cheek I implored Sam to join the Bears. He was surprised that I or anyone still knows he was a placekicker. We’ve been having fun about that. Then on Sunday evening immediately following Parkey’s “double boink” that eliminated the Bears from the rest of the postseason, Sam sent me the following email:

Subject: My condolences

I know how that kicker feels.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

this has absolutely saved me from a fender bender once or twice. is this not a standard feature on other luxury cars nowadays?

It exists on them, but isn’t nearly as good. All fail if the car in front hasn’t been moving(except, according to most recent tests, Tesla’s)

 

[AlexS]

It’s setting up for a major major move this week. Unusually stable.

You need catalyst for move up, I don't see any news for this week sadly.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Increased accident rates - consistent with winter seasonality. (It's more dangerous to drive in the winter.)

Autopilot still ~2x safer than human drivers.

Yes but even more impressive is the lower rate of all Tesla’s than other cars. I believe that statistic underestimates the increased safety of tesla cars. Since most cars on the road are nonteslas any accidents involving more than a single car more likely to have been caused by the nontesla car given their lower safety record

 

[M3Rider]

I'd be happy just to not end in the red today.

So far it's not looking great that I'll even get that

Well, somebody is happy today. +0.12%

I want $350+, preferably $375 prior to ER

 

[AlexS]

Tomorrow at 11:00 am EST, CFRA will host a webinar titled, “Is it Time to Buy or Bail?” It will be led by my friend Sam Stovall, who is their chief investment strategist. Don’t be surprised if their answer is the first “B”.

Link to webinar registration: Is it Time to Buy or Bail?

On December 4 (my birthday!), CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson raised his price target on TSLA to $420 from $375. He replaced their retired analyst Efraim Levy who was almost always bearish on TSLA.

Sam and his father Bob were regular guests on my TV show. Bob once let me know that Sam was a placekicker in college. Earlier this NFL season when the Chicago Bears’ placekicker Cody Parkey bounced the ball off of the upright four times during a single game, with tongue in cheek I implored Sam to join the Bears. He was surprised that I or anyone still knows he was a placekicker. We’ve been having fun about that. Then on Sunday evening following Parkey’s “double boink” that eliminated the Bears from the rest of the postseason, Sam sent me the following email:

Subject: My condolences

I know how that kicker feels.

BTW I missed ARK Invest webinar today, can you briefly tell what did they say about Tesla, this webinar is not yet uploaded on their homepage

 

[gora321]

I hope that the temperature chart for the earth in the next 20 years will look like this:

 

[elasalle]

Well, somebody is happy today. +0.12%

I want $350+, preferably $375 prior to ER

We got the $360 barrier tied to March Convertibles. Not sure whether we will break it prior to earnings ...

Watching closely thought, anxiously baby sitting some of my sold covered calls ($400 + ) till then.

 

[elasalle]

Yun Lin on Twitter

EU Model 3 heading into SF Pier 80. Passed at least 4 other trucks on HW101

 

[M3Rider]

Also the higher price

How do other premium brands fare ?

These are safety features and will be included on the $35k car. So, you get 3x less accidents with that...

Although, something's not right - you can't be "causing" that many more accidents just by yourself, the other party in the accident should be at least 50% responsible. Maybe there's a factor of accident avoidance when you try to protect your expensive car, so you keep a distance etc.?
Maybe $35k cars will only have 2x better scores.

 

[Buckminster]

Opinion: How Mercedes hopes to snare younger buyers for the CLA | Autocar
Sometimes I have an illogical concern that I have missed something and the OEMs will come and eat Tesla's lunch just because they are so big etc. Then I read stuff like this.. They really are as clueless as we think.

First comes this insightful comment:
Reaching a more youthful market means pitching the CLA at a smartphone-savvy, Netflix-loving, internet-dwelling audience.

Then they say:
So the reading lights can be controlled by waving a hand near the rear-view mirrow (millennial speak for mirror).
Reading light required for Netflix?
Mercedes also have an Alexa - presumably for when your phone runs out of charge?

Well at least they got the orange lines bang on...

 

[SebastianR]

Alright, I'm out of leverage for now. I will wait for tonight's political spectacle and next week's Brexit vote before I (hopefully) jump back in before the Q4 numbers are out

 

[FrANce]

This baby flying soon for me. Need a gucci bag for my wife. Lol

I'd suggest Hermès, keeps it value.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Hmm, just spotted this in the Vehicle Safety Report:

"And because every Tesla is connected, we’re able to use the more than 10 billion miles of real-world data collected by our global fleet – of which more than 1 billion have been driven with Autopilot engaged– to constantly improve our products"

>1 billion miles, so no more beta tag, right?

 

[trini0t3y]

Nice - what's the exchange rate from 'gazillion bucks' to USD?

Like a lot of dough

 

[KarenRei]

Well, somebody is happy today. +0.12%

I want $350+, preferably $375 prior to ER

Even 0,12% daily growth (trading days) works out to 34% annual growth.

 

[1101011]

Yeah, China's high power transmission network is exemplary:

Brings wind and solar from the sparsely populated, energy-rich interior to the densely populated coast, while simultaneously bringing green jobs to the traditionally-impoverished interior.

Hey, wait! We could do that!

 

[lklundin]

Yun Lin on Twitter

EU Model 3 heading into SF Pier 80. Passed at least 4 other trucks on HW101

Someone on that thread noticed Model X's among them, speculating that the destination thus is China (since European Model S/X go to Tilburg).