Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

The new generation after the mills are pretty sick of left wing politics.

JFYI, newer generations are more and more liberal:

I.e. PewDiePie's key demographics is the most liberal one of all the generations: more inclusive, more progressive and less judgemental - which is good news for EV adoption, because:

So Elon going on Rogan's and PewDiePew's shows is the right approach IMHO - the kids are not watching TV anymore.

 

[AcesDealt]

Younger generations will adopt EVs the fastest once you control for earning power and auto prices. That's about all the politics you need in regard to this subject and Tesla.

 

[avoigt]

Interesting conversation on twitter about the M3 demand in Germany for those interested:

The thought process is right now that the about 10k jump in the German bafa incentive in the last 7 days is likely to be related to M3 and could be correct as the German order of +3k are possibly also commercial orders where many vehicles are under one order number while you get only one number of each bafa application.

Historic data shows that for that bafa incentive more than 50% of applications came from commercial organizations like companies ordering company cars and that was before the 3 did make it on the incentive list and before the company car tax has been cut in half which is for many €50 - 200 net every month more in the pocket.

10 k 3 orders as pent up demand for the first 6 weeks in Germany is more in line with my analysis and expectations.

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[Rogstar]

The wish (need?) To own a vehicle, or NOT(!) should be a huge consideration.
There's a theory that as EV's, then automated vehicles come to market, fewer vehicles will be sold and the rise of extremely cheap hail to ride services will dominate.
It's only natural that these trends will be driven by the younger generations.
If they come to value convenience of cheap transport, retaining wealth, over the current (?) Status symbol of "owning" a vehicle, the auto industry as we know it will evaporate as the final (?) stage of the paradigm shift.

 

[Fact Checking]

This Panasonic news is from last year:

Tesla hints at seeking new battery suppliers in blow to Panasonic​

but I'm wondering how this fits into the picture after the 75D removal.

In particular this bit seems intriguing:

"Osaka-based Panasonic has been planning to transfer the production of Tesla batteries from an in-house company for automotive and industrial systems to a new U.S.-based unit starting next April. It aims to deepen its relationship with the automaker as Tesla's Model 3 sedan finally gets on track for mass production, after prior delays."​

That "next April" is now just 2 months away: is Panasonic going to move 18,650 cell production from Japan to the U.S.?

Is the removal of the 75D and the halving of production helping that step, allowing Panasonic to move the lines without disrupting Model S/X production? Also, April would be the first month of Q2, and also the month when Tesla plans making HW3 modules. Busy month!

@hiroshiy also raised the problem of Panasonic's employees in several factories in Japan, which are currently producing ~8 GWh of 18,650 cells per year.

 

[Rogstar]

About layoffs:

Tesla reaches out to Nevada high school grads with job opportunities

Tesla Doubled Service Staff in Key Norway Market Last Year
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

With building up in 2019 GF3 in China and installing delivery centers in Europe alone, Tesla will increase their global manpower significantly. I bet no one will report anything about it unless Tesla decides to increase profitability again one day and calls a round of layoffs.

Its like to say because you grow actually only 50% instead of 70% we recorded last 6 months you are now shrinking 20% and are doomed....

Has anyone asked how many of these layoffs (if any) were short-term contracts?
Were sales and support staff employed specifically for Q3 and Q4 2018?

 

[mongo]

The wish (need?) To own a vehicle, or NOT(!) should be a huge consideration.
There's a theory that as EV's, then automated vehicles come to market, fewer vehicles will be sold and the rise of extremely cheap hail to ride services will dominate.
It's only natural that these trends will be driven by the younger generations.
If they come to value convenience of cheap transport, retaining wealth, over the current (?) Status symbol of "owning" a vehicle, the auto industry as we know it will evaporate as the final (?) stage of the paradigm shift.

Teslas, especially with the mass market 3, and soon Y, seem more about the fun of driving than status.

Rural peeps will always need cars more than city peeps. When I'm pouring a cement pad, doing any of the home construction projects, towing rental equipment, getting to work down our dirt road, ot heading to a client, I need a vehicle (right then and possibly for days). My 16 year old truck is not a status symbol. My Tesla pickup will not be either (at least not for me).

 

[avoigt]

Has anyone asked how many of these layoffs (if any) were short-term contracts?
Were sales and support staff employed specifically for Q3 and Q4 2018?

From what I remember the 3k were FTEs and not contractors.

 

[Rogstar]

Possibly, I'm just posting a scenario.
I've driven a car (company car) for 40 years.
My (millennial) daughter doesn't own one, has no desire to own one, sees no need to own one in the future.
If she can open an app, book a collection when she wants, have aastress free journey in a nice car, with no vehicle, fuel, parking, insurance, repairs, etc, to pay for, that's what she will do.
Other uses?
Have materials / shopping delivered by a specialist.
Company vehicles? (My situation, as a mobile support technician) business models will change.
Nothing stays the same.

 

[ReflexFunds]

My take on the 75 being cut is that they are ramping up Model 3 production hard to compensate for this cut (which is why SX employees were let go). Reasons for the 75 being cut might be becuase Panasonic decided to sell the old battery equipment and form factor to Toyota. Panasonic did this becuase they realize the SX is likely approaching the end of its life cycle before Tesla refreshes the SX with the new batteries. This of course did not happen out of the blue, but instead Elon and Pana are likley in close communication about this phase out and Pana likely got the nod from Elon to gut the old batteries and throw Toyota a bone. I believe the increase of Model 3 production coincides well with shipments going to Europe and China, going from 5k to 6k then later 7k a week... this increase will likely more than compensate for the lost of 75kkwh car. This is likely the “efficiency” that Tesla said it has achieved, it is efficiencies in the model 3 production and not Model SX battery production that some here are speculating.

With the refresh likely coming, Tesla might have a very nice pile of old batteries lying around to build solely for the high end performance versions. Tesla might have enough batteries for the SX to carry through the next 2-3 quarters before it introduces the new refresh of S&X, which will then blow the Porsche specs out of the waters by a wide margin. EV competitors better pray my prediction isn’t true, because if it is, you will be looking at a monster increase in SX performance as well as interior/exterior design very soon.

Panasonic is only selling its prismatic battery business to Toyota, it is maintaining ownership of its cylindrical Tesla business. No one other than Tesla appears to know how to affordably assemble cylindrical cells into a pack, so the rest of the industry are sticking with prismatic/pouch cells which need less module/pack IP.

 

[jbih]

China Gigafactory building site flyover. That's at least the third Tesla related video from this channel with only 126 subscriptions... Subscribed!

 

[Fact Checking]

Panasonic is only selling its prismatic battery business to Toyota, it is maintaining ownership of its cylindrical Tesla business. No one other than Tesla appears to know how to affordably assemble cylindrical cells into a pack, so the rest of the industry are sticking with prismatic/pouch cells which need less module/pack IP.

There's three other forces as well I believe:

• Leading battery pack producers like LG Chem are pushing prismatic/pouch cells because it creates a kind of vendor lock-in: the cells typically have much higher capacity, so any module designed to them will unlikely to be able to make use of competing vendor's cells. Cylindrical cells on the other hand allow more interchangeability, for example Tesla's Australia battery project was using Samsung cells.
• Leading car OEMs are buying whatever is available in volume - and that's basically just LG Chem. Everything else takes years to build: a cylindrical cell factory takes 2-3 years to build, from scratch. So once they have started with prismatic cells, it's more probable that their next generation of EVs is using similar cells.
• Car OEMs also prefer their outsourced suppliers to be tied to their EV architecture, so that they cannot go and sell to other carmakers overly easily.

Not even Volkswagen appears to have broken this kind of lock-in: even the ID is going to use prismatic cells I believe.

 

[ReflexFunds]

There's three other forces as well I believe:

• Leading battery pack producers like LG Chem are pushing prismatic/pouch cells because it creates a kind of vendor lock-in: the cells typically have much higher capacity, so any module designed to them will unlikely to be able to make use of competing vendor's cells. Cylindrical cells on the other hand allow more interchangeability, for example Tesla's Australia battery project was using Samsung cells.
• Leading car OEMs are buying whatever is available in volume - and that's basically just LG Chem. Everything else takes years to build: a cylindrical cell factory takes 2-3 years to build, from scratch. So once they have started with prismatic cells, it's more probable that their next generation of EVs is using similar cells.
• Car OEMs also prefer their outsourced suppliers to be tied to their EV architecture, so that they cannot go and sell to other carmakers overly easily.

Not even Volkswagen appears to have broken this kind of lock-in: even the ID is going to use prismatic cells I believe.

I think some of the $20-50bn OEM battery cell contracts may turn into another handicap. They are committed to 7+ years of purchases for a less flexible technology. Tesla should be much more flexible to continuously upgrade its gigafactories and use the latest technology.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This Panasonic news is from last year:

Tesla hints at seeking new battery suppliers in blow to Panasonic​

but I'm wondering how this fits into the picture after the 75D removal.

In particular this bit seems intriguing:

"Osaka-based Panasonic has been planning to transfer the production of Tesla batteries from an in-house company for automotive and industrial systems to a new U.S.-based unit starting next April. It aims to deepen its relationship with the automaker as Tesla's Model 3 sedan finally gets on track for mass production, after prior delays."​

That "next April" is now just 2 months away: is Panasonic going to move 18,650 cell production from Japan to the U.S.?

Is the removal of the 75D and the halving of production helping that step, allowing Panasonic to move the lines without disrupting Model S/X production? Also, April would be the first month of Q2, and also the month when Tesla plans making HW3 modules. Busy month!

@hiroshiy also raised the problem of Panasonic's employees in several factories in Japan, which are currently producing ~8 GWh of 18,650 cells per year.

I think it's accounting. Panasonic is heavily exposed to Tesla. Separating out the Tesla business shields the rest of the company from Tesla failure.

 

[gora321]

Tesla New York on Twitter

 

[shlokavica22]

Possibly, I'm just posting a scenario.
I've driven a car (company car) for 40 years.
My (millennial) daughter doesn't own one, has no desire to own one, sees no need to own one in the future.
If she can open an app, book a collection when she wants, have aastress free journey in a nice car, with no vehicle, fuel, parking, insurance, repairs, etc, to pay for, that's what she will do.
Other uses?
Have materials / shopping delivered by a specialist.
Company vehicles? (My situation, as a mobile support technician) business models will change.
Nothing stays the same.

It's more like arriving late to a party
What you described is exactly the reason companies like Waymo/Uber,etc. have their current valuation. Future estimations for that market are in the trillions.
TSLA is purposefully stripped from such valuation.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Biggest YouTuber of all times, 80m+ subscribers.

Demographics:

In a 2017 video, Kjellberg shared a screenshot of data provided by YouTube regarding his channel statistics, which suggested his largest demographic was among the 18-24 age group, followed by the 25-34 age group.​

Demand for 10 more Gigafactories secured.

Indeed, in 5-10 years, the wave is going to be even crazier.

 

[avoigt]

Biggest YouTuber of all times, 80m+ subscribers.

Demographics:

In a 2017 video, Kjellberg shared a screenshot of data provided by YouTube regarding his channel statistics, which suggested his largest demographic was among the 18-24 age group, followed by the 25-34 age group.​

Demand for 10 more Gigafactories secured.

It looks like a format that Elon will like more easy going chatting atmosphere instead of a formal interview where the content will be "adjusted" from the host to their personal needs. But also gives Elon a stage to make stamens that the media could usage for their FUD purpose.

Here is a video from 2015, his followers have doubled since:

 

[PaulRocket]

Fred Lambert on Instagram: “Tesla brought a motor crane vehicle to film at Tesla Corsa. It’s pretty cool. They made a chrome delete and matte black finish.”

Could they be shooting some promo material ahead of a refresh release on the ER?

 

[mrdoubleb]

I would be very cautious with the optimism over German orders as well... however the evidence on the BAFA side is intriguing. The thing is there isn`t really any other EV out there right now that people could be buying in quantity save for the Leaf, but even that is a question mark.

The Kona EV and the e-Niro would qualify and appear to be great products for the price, but both are severely production limited. The big news on the Kona side last November was that Hyundai finally managed to make 2300 for the international markets that month - up from about a 1k or so per earlier that year. that`s like 3 days of Model 3 production in an entire month. It was rumored that they have limited supplies of the batteries (shocking, I know!) so one would assume that the Kia sister model, the e-Niro suffers the same. and indeed UK buyers report that the country will only get 700 in the entire 2019.

The Leaf on the other hand had only had 2380 sales in Germany in 2018 for the full year. One would think the Germans dislike the small battery, so the Leaf 60 could make a difference, but there is supposed to be only 5000 set aside for the entire continent for this year.

So there doesn`t seem to be anything else but the Model 3 that people could be buying at such quantities.