Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Weird, is something wrong with the Glovis Cosmos? Looks like it's headed to port in the UK. It's even slowing down and has a pilot vessel with it!

Wow. Where's that earlier-used "Set this to Old-style Pinball Machine Music" when it's needed most!?!?!?!

 

[lklundin]

OK, so it looks like today's arrival of cars in Drammen, Norway was not Model 3s.

Further, Elon Musk did meet his customers in Oslo:
Rita (9) fikk møte Tesla-gründer Elon Musk i Oslo

PS. The article talks mostly about improved service in Norway, seems to have no details on deliveries...

 

[Electroman]

the e-Tron averages 140kW 0..80% in 29 minutes, whereas an S100D hardly manages to average 70kW 0..80% in 50 minutes, therefore the Audi advantage in recharge speed is more like 100%.

This is a simple statement of fact, from the face of it, it appears that e-tron charges much faster than the current SX. Which is amazing. Just imagine if Tesla cars can maintain 100KW for the entire 0-80%.. we can only dream. If you end up with 100kW average that is perhaps a 30% increase over the same 0-80% of a 100D.

Now, it is also a fact that over the e-Tron design has a lower efficiency hence the faster charging advantage is completely nullified. And there are hardly any chargers anyway. So for the end user -in where it matters- none of these matters. They are not benefiting anyway - atleast for now. Tomorrow for the next model it might be different.

BUT that should not take away from the fact that Audi's battery/cell tech is superior than anything anyone has in the market, when it comes to charging rate by a whopping 40%.. assuming they are not frying the batteries.

 

[mekberg]

Man, just now reading that article about the Porsche/Audi reverse engineering of the Model 3, and it's really damning.

"Now a new report from Germany’s Manager Magazin (German and paywall) includes a deep dive into the state of Audi with comments from executives and insider sources. ... The Porsche and Audi engineers have to change [the PPE] because Tesla’s Model 3 has gotten better than they thought."

Read: "Oh f***!"

"The next-gen platform called Premium Platform Electric (PPE) was greenlighted almost two years ago and it is expected to be ready around 2020 or 2021."

Read: "We don't think we can compete until at least 2022, and please God, don't let Tesla keep improving even further during that time..."

"According to the new report, the first version was coming at about 3,000 euros too expensive, which Porsche is said to be able to absorb but Audi wasn’t on board."

Read: "Even our luxury brand can't turn a profit on this thing."

"The battery cell cost is apparently the biggest factor that pushes the cost of the platform higher"

Read: "That battery plant they're building that we're partnering with for 2020/2021 is already obsolete."

"According to the report, Audi and Porsche could delay the PPE in order to improve the cost and be competitive with Tesla."

Read: "Please, for the love of God, Tesla, slow down. Wait, did they seriously just purchase a company to let them lower their electrode manufacturing costs further...?"

"The PPE is becoming increasingly important for Audi according to Manager-Magazin’s report, which describes a failing e-tron program: 'The e-tron as the first electric Audi is not only late. It does not reach some target values and has become far too expensive with more than two billion euros in development costs. The approximately 600,000 cars sold for the break-even are now regarded as an illusion.' "

Read: "You know that thing we keep hyping as a 'Tesla Killer'? It's actually killing us."

"The German automaker is still planning several other vehicles based on the same platform before the PPE becomes available."

Read: "And it's going to continue killing us until we can introduce our now further delayed replacement."

I mean... damn. Is the rest of Volkswagen Group also this clueless and behind the times?

The frogs are starting to realize it's getting uncomfortably hot.

 

[ggr]

Note that only Audi and VW executives know the E-Tron preorder numbers, which have to be poor for them to declare the 600,000 break-even sales target "illusory" before sales even start ...

I read this statement a different way. I think what they meant was that (with extra development costs and extra per-vehicle production costs driving down margin) it would take a lot more than 600k units to break even. I don't think it refers to the sales target. Imagine taking 10 years at 100k cars/year before being able to claim success, given that the model will be obsolete on the day the first one is delivered!

 

[KarenRei]

assuming they are not frying the batteries.

I'm also going to assume that they weren't rigging their diesel emissions tests. And that was outright illegal.

You can get Tesla cells off Ebay and charge them at whatever rate you want, within the bounds of maximum ion mobility. Ensuring longevity, however, is an entirely different story.

Seriously, you don't think a manufacturer (let alone Volkswagen AG) would deliberately sacrifice longevity in order to boost sales? Even Nissan did/does that, and they're (IMHO) a much more reputable company.

The simple fact is that you need to choose - either A) power or B) density and affordability. You don't get both. With the former you might get ~140/kWh at the cell level. It's a big tradeoff to use such cells, which is why they're not generally used in EVs. As a general rule, it makes a lot more sense just to add more energy-dense cells to increase power levels. Adding more cells doesn't increase your C-rate, but it increases your max current corresponding to how many cells you have. E.g. if you take a 60kWh pack that you'd charge at 1C at some given SoC, and double it to 120kWh, you'd still be charging at 1C at that SoC, but that 1C would represent 2kWh/min rather than 1kWh/min. Such an arrangement costs you significantly less than using high power cells and nearly doubles your range.

 

[ggr]

In short, what is needed is for an incumbent manufacturer to really bite the bullet and seriously produce an EV. When I say serious, I don't mean at Bolt or Leaf levels -- which are the best they've managed so far -- but at at least M3 levels. While doing so will not help their quarterly report or endear them to shareholders, it is imperative for the greater good and their long term survival.

You forget... they can't, there are not enough cell factories, since almost all the expansion in cells is going into China.

 

[Krugerrand]

Watch this:

Besides the obvious, the best part of that video is the driver sighing.

 

[OPRCE]

This is a simple statement of fact, from the face of it, it appears that e-tron charges much faster than the current SX. Which is amazing. Just imagine if Tesla cars can maintain 100KW for the entire 0-80%.. we can only dream. If you end up with 100kW average that is perhaps a 30% increase over the same 0-80% of a 100D.

Now, it is also a fact that over the e-Tron design has a lower efficiency hence the faster charging advantage is completely nullified. And there are hardly any chargers anyway. So for the end user -in where it matters- none of these matters. They are not benefiting anyway - atleast for now. Tomorrow for the next model it might be different.

BUT that should not take away from the fact that Audi's battery/cell tech is superior than anything anyone has in the market, when it comes to charging rate by a whopping 40%.. assuming they are not frying the batteries.

Yes, it's an admirable technical feat but sadly just mentioning the facts on this thread seems to provoke the rage of those more worried about their stock portfolios or whatever, so they immediately jump into ludicrous-accusation-mode to further insulate themselves from reality.

 

[AudubonB]

The frogs are starting to realize it's getting uncomfortably hot.

No, we're talking about Germany here.


(I'll see my way out now).

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yes, it's an admirable technical feat but sadly just mentioning the facts on this thread seems to provoke the rage of those more worried about their stock portfolios or whatever, so they immediately jump into ludicrous-accusation-mode to further insulate themselves from reality.

We have years of battery degradation data for Tesla vehicles. We don’t have that data for Audi. Why should I take them at their word when they clearly have a vested interest in creating the perception of some sort of advantage in the marketplace? You’ll have to excuse me if I’m skeptical, and the fact that you’re willing to dismiss questions about degradation out of hand is baffling to me. If they have some sort of advanced charging tech that is 100% better than Tesla’s and their batteries don’t suffer for it, great. But let’s see the data first.

 

[mongo]

Autopilot didn't brake. TACC did the braking, after the car directly in front of the Model 3 stopped. The collision in this video wasn't a factor in the Tesla's automatic stop.

Any Tesla manufactured after late September 2014 (those equipped with Bosch radar) should perform this way.

TL;dr This vid is for clicks.

The only cars in front of the 3 (at the next light) were already stopped. No cars turned in front of the 3 during the red light. Here is the moment when the car hits the brakes:

 

[KarenRei]

Vincent on Twitter

PM3... 31,4%??? Jesus H. Christ on a pogo stick, I hope that actually corresponds to real-world take rates!

My pessimistic side says that a lot of that is "aspirational" selection. But hey, prove me wrong, Chinese consumers, prove me wrong

 

[Krugerrand]

Last year when there was talk of the e-tron I remember cautioning against its eventual production on the basis that the first production dates were stated as being contingent on demand and Audi was clearly not trying to sell the car (only through dealerships which have incentive to sell you something else). This article seems to make clear that there is insufficient demand -- I'm not surprised.

Once you add in the internal knowledge about cost overruns, missing the Tesla target and the externally knowable things like lack of efficiency and range -- the e-tron ends up about where the naysayers always said.

This is not good news. This is not accelerating the transition to EV. Even as fast as Tesla is ramping up it just isn't enough. And, apparently to bow to the gods of profit and positive cash flow, Tesla has stopped ramping as fast as possible. Other manufacturers need to take up the slack. I like the idea of Rivian, but a startup getting into full production profitably is more than a bit of a gamble -- and they lack the capital to produce at scale even more than Tesla.

In short, what is needed is for an incumbent manufacturer to really bite the bullet and seriously produce an EV. When I say serious, I don't mean at Bolt or Leaf levels -- which are the best they've managed so far -- but at at least M3 levels. While doing so will not help their quarterly report or endear them to shareholders, it is imperative for the greater good and their long term survival.

I can’t decide if they just simply haven’t given it all they have, or if they just don’t have it to give - (or combination of both).

They’ve certainly pranced around like peacocks for the last several years, while Tesla just put their nose to the gindstone and killed it - repeatedly (even while making some boneheaded mistakes).

I still think the only way to get it done (besides via another startup like a Nio, Lucid etc...) is to open a brand new division, hire new people (along with a handful of your current not-attached-to-ICE-cars) employees, who have manufacturing experience, and let that EV only division behave like a startup, while paring down your ICE business in concert.

My gut feeling is they are all screwed and it’s too late to get out of the mess. Tesla is just too far ahead, too innovative and too fast. Even now Tesla prepares itself for the eventual recession that’s coming at some point. While Tesla has demonstrated being proactive (recalling vehicles before anyone even knows there’s a problem, building out charging network before anyone even thought about it, building a battery factory, the list is endless), every other OEM is reacting. If you’re reacting, you’re too late.

I said just the other day, I want Tesla to crush them all. I do. That’s where my heart is, even though my head is ‘Um...maybe not the best way to go, mate.’ But damn it all to hell, they deserve to be crushed and I want to be here to see it. Such ugliness I have inside but I want them to pay the price.

I’m betting the survivors are Tesla, a couple of Chinese EV makers for lower end vehicles, perhaps one of the current startups or one that hasn’t been started yet, and one or two highly niche players in a segment or two that Tesla decides not to venture into.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

 

[Toumal]

This is not good news. This is not accelerating the transition to EV. Even as fast as Tesla is ramping up it just isn't enough.
...
In short, what is needed is for an incumbent manufacturer to really bite the bullet and seriously produce an EV.

Taking the greater picture into consideration, I agree with you.
However, I can't help but feel like a good number of carmakers deserve to go out of business for constantly lying to everyone for the past few decades, and stonewalling EV production. Frankly we need another iPhone moment, and we need the Nokias and Blackberries of the world to roll over and die. They can't change, the past years have proven that.

Even more infuriating, "out there" in popular opinion, vehicles such as the e-tron or the taycan are not just Model S/X "killers", but "Tesla killers". The statements made by these managers about the real state of affairs have not permeated into the public perception yet.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Take a look at the home Elon Musk is selling for $4.5 million

Wow. Hopefully not due to financial pains.

 

[Krugerrand]

Interesting.

As for the Model 3 braking due to its autopilot, I guess we have to take the driver's word for it?
(It seems plausible enough, the driver doesn't seem to look left - and few would do so on a green light).

From that angle of almost 90 degrees to its left, from how far away can the Model 3's sensors detect an oncoming vehicle?

He didn’t need to be on AP for the car to do that. My 3 has reacted a few times like that without me being on AP.

I’m a defensive driver by nature (I don’t trust anyone else on the road), so I’m rarely in a situation where I can get smucked. The 3, though, sometimes makes me look like I’m driving with my eyes closed - it’s that aware. Freaks me out a bit.

 

[anthonyj]

Take a look at the home Elon Musk is selling for $4.5 million

Wow. Hopefully not due to financial pains.

Sad that he has to sell his assets to help pay for the bonds due on March 1st. Could this signal the end? Tslaq

(It’s a joke people)

 

[Krugerrand]

Take a look at the home Elon Musk is selling for $4.5 million

Wow. Hopefully not due to financial pains.

And that comment is why I don’t trust you or your intentions here.

 

[MP3Mike]

And somebody else has already taken credit for it: Nafnlaus on Twitter