Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

FED minutes release ~43 minutes from now.

Not sure why they do this during market hours. A release like this can easily be done after/before market.

 

[Beltsbear]

Regardless of whether Tesla will meet it, what is Elon planning? My thinking is:
29k per week
2500 s/x
1000 Semi
500 Roadster
1000 Pickup (more in 2022)
10,000 M3
14,000 MY

Elon has mentioned M3 rate of 10k but nothing higher that I remember. It could go higher if GF4 was to come along early enough. 14k will be quite a ramp for MY....

The MY is going to be lower, the pickup higher. If they make that many MY, the M3 will suffer. The pickup does not cannibalize any Tesla market. The S/X assuming refreshed will be more compelling then now and worldwide sales could go to 3k.

 

[CorneliusXX]

An overpaid lawyer left, for certain costing over 1 million per year.
Cost cutting enables higher net margins

My guess is that he got bored when he realised the majority of his job was making sure the supplier agreement for the front left headlight had the needed clauses around tolerances for the curvature of the mirror along with the relevant sub clauses around remedies should the curvature of the mirror deviate by more than the agreed amount.

 

[humbaba]

The MY is going to be lower, the pickup higher. If they make that many MY, the M3 will suffer. The pickup does not cannibalize any Tesla market. The S/X assuming refreshed will be more compelling then now and worldwide sales could go to 3k.

So... you are saying that Tesla can only compete with itself, that its sales do not come at the expense of Toyota, Ford, GM, Honda, etc.?

I mean, if you don't think EVs can compete against ICE just say so.

 

[Joe F]

Just do it. Turn it off. You didn't need to watch another Honda commercial anyway.

That's what the mute button is for.

And, there's more to the investing world than Tesla, believe it or not. There are things happening around the world that help shape investors thinking. Haven't found anything better than CNBC to date. Just have to ignore many (most?) of the talking heads TSLA comments.

My $0.02

 

[Buckminster]

We are halfway through the quarter - top level sit rep:

20% likelihood of a blow out quarter - enough to be GAAP profitable over 4 quarters
60% likelihood of reasonable profits
20% likelihood of tiny profit (Tesla guidance)

S/X sales unknown but important to profits. M3 production looking good. Reason to believe Tesla can manage the undelivered 10k down - leasing to employees plus shipping seems efficient to EU (Tesla now managing deliveries from service centres).

Most likely reasons for decent SP rise to 380 ish:

• MY unveil if Elon keeps to March - 1 month wait
• Q1 delivery figures - 6 week wait
• Moody upgrade - 8 week wait following 1st March repayment?

Most likely reasons to go beyond 380:

• Reasonable / significant profits in ER - a wait of another 2.5 months....

Bankruptcy threats to the company are now almost zero.

 

[Beltsbear]

So... you are saying that Tesla can only compete with itself, that its sales do not come at the expense of Toyota, Ford, GM, Honda, etc.?

I mean, if you don't think EVs can compete against ICE just say so.

?? What? Of course most of the sales will come from ICE, but the market for a midsized luxury is only so big, the Y and 3 will share many buyers. It would be foolish for Tesla to build out to 24k cars in that space PER WEEK while only making 1k pickups a week. A more balanced approach would make the most money AND offset the most pollution. Tesla would be better served building 20k 3/Y and 5k pickups.

 

[CharlesSr]

To the people who watch CNBC, I only have this to say:

Gell-Mann amnesia effect
Gell-Mann amnesia effect - Wikipedia

so be careful

 

[MarcusMaximus]

?? What? Of course most of the sales will come from ICE, but the market for a midsized luxury is only so big, the Y and 3 will share many buyers. It would be foolish for Tesla to build out to 24k cars in that space PER WEEK while only making 1k pickups a week. A more balanced approach would make the most money AND offset the most pollution. Tesla would be better served building 20k 3/Y and 5k pickups.

We haven’t seen Model Y prices, obviously, but it’s probably important to remember that the floor is much higher for mid-size SUVs. It could be close enough in price to directly compete with non-luxury brands in that segment.

 

[Joe F]

To the people who watch CNBC, I only have this to say:

Gell-Mann amnesia effect
Gell-Mann amnesia effect - Wikipedia

so be careful

Sure, be careful to an extent, but make every attempt to stay informed lest you fall prey to the Ostrich Effect.

 

[shlokavica22]

FED minutes release ~43 minutes from now.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20190130.pdf

*FED OFFICIALS SAY RECENT HOUSEHOLD DATA HAVE BEEN STRONG
*FED OFFICIALS SEE STRONG LABOR MARKET, INFLATION NEAR TARGET
*FED OFFICIALS NOTE BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAD MODERATED
*FED: PATIENT POSTURE WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR A CLEARER PICTURE

 

[lklundin]

This could also explain a lot about defying physics with the semi which is my second theory. The first cells could be 18650 or 2170 for semi. For two reasons.. dry electrode allows more charge cycles while being way more energy dense vs NMC 811. The competition assumed NMC, Tesla will deliver NCA cells with 2500+ cycles which is good for 10 years and over a million miles. The second reason is higher density = more range while carrying heavier loads. This is why Daimler thinks Tesla is defying physics and Elon says the final specs of the semi will be better then what they have already stated.

Am I crazy or on to something?

This second part seems flawed in the sense that in November 2017 when Tesla revealed the Semi with its daunting specs, they hardly knew that they would be able to use a dry electrode.

In fact, I believe Elon Musk stated at that time that they would be able to build the Semi with their existing technology.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Can TSLA really bounce off $300 for the tenth time in 2 months?

Yes.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla is at almost 7k/week battery pack assembly speed using ~3 'old lines' and a new 'Grohmann machine'. It has been disclosed previosly that the new Grohmann machine is assembling about ~3 times faster than the old lines, i.e. the assembly speed is probably around 1.2k+1.2k+1.2k+3.6k/week, i.e. the new Grohmann machine is assembling Long Range and Medium Range packs at an almost 4k/week rate.

The Standard Range battery pack has been lauded as significantly more lightweight, much easier to assemble and handle. This is from line workers who have handled both battery packs.

I believe it's reasonable to assume that the new Grohmann line being assembled right now will have a capacity of at least 5k/week, possibly significantly more.

That's more than enough to cover China's 3k/week demand, and a 2k/week demand in the U.S. Also, the SR packs could be sold in the U.S. and EU to waiting customers until China production ramps up: Shanghai Gigafactory won't start up with 3k/week output straight away.

I.e. IMO Tesla would be commiting an unforced error by not taking advantage of the SR pack cost savings in the U.S. and European markets.

My guess is that while initially many SR packs will go to China, the Shanghai Gigafactory will gradually take over pack assembly and cell production - leaving a 5k/week+ supply of SR packs for the U.S. and European markets.

No one ever said this new grohmann machine only made modules/packs for SR. If they did, I missed it. If you can make packs 3x faster cheaper and lighter, you make them all faster, cheaper and lighter. Not just one type. I don't think anyone really knows what those new machines do.

What we do know is that Tesla has demand for 150k MR+ in NA and at least that much out side NA. That is 300k/year. Tesla can only make 400k in a year until the end of the year when GF3 comes online. Tesla has already stated that SR will be made locally in China the rest to come from the US. My point is not that Tesla can't make the SR, but that they have no reason to. They have to much demand already with MR+. MR keeps getting cheaper as well. At some point it's so close to the SR that it displaces it completely in the US at ~$39.5k without PUP. Tesla is only $3400 away from that today.

That is why I think Tesla will offer a limited run of SR in the US for employees and day one line waiters.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Per John Harwood, reporter for CNBC: Trump in Oval Office on EU auto tariffs: “if we don’t make a deal we’ll do the tariffs”.

One can infer from this statement that the Commerce Dept. Report on European trade did in fact recommend auto tariffs (as was expected).

 

[Reciprocity]

This second part seems flawed in the sense that in November 2017 when Tesla revealed the Semi with its daunting specs, they hardly knew that they would be able to use a dry electrode.

In fact, I believe Elon Musk stated at that time that they would be able to build the Semi with their existing technology.

That doesn't explain why the specs are now going to be even better. Tesla also could have projected inevitable gains. If course they could put more cells in and replace the pack in 5 years, but not less cells and no replacement required. I can assure you that if you 2x daily charge about 80% from under 10% your NCA pack would need to be replaced to get over 80%.

 

[EVNow]

?? What? Of course most of the sales will come from ICE, but the market for a midsized luxury is only so big, the Y and 3 will share many buyers. It would be foolish for Tesla to build out to 24k cars in that space PER WEEK while only making 1k pickups a week. A more balanced approach would make the most money AND offset the most pollution. Tesla would be better served building 20k 3/Y and 5k pickups.

I hope they build the assembly lines such that they can change the numbers easily. I don't know if all 3 can be built on the same line.

I think we still don't know what is the steady state demand for 3/Y is - or initial demand for pickups would be. Its going to be difficult to match production to demand if the assembly line is not flexible.

 

[Unpilot]

That's what the mute button is for.

And, there's more to the investing world than Tesla, believe it or not. There are things happening around the world that help shape investors thinking. Haven't found anything better than CNBC to date. Just have to ignore many (most?) of the talking heads TSLA comments.

My $0.02

When you know a little about a subject it is scary to hear other people describe that subject.
The lack of genuine knowledge and thoughtful analysis on CNBC is frankly disgusting.

 

[madodel]

So... you are saying that Tesla can only compete with itself, that its sales do not come at the expense of Toyota, Ford, GM, Honda, etc.?

I mean, if you don't think EVs can compete against ICE just say so.

It is so frustrating that every car "competes" with Tesla, but there is complete denial that Tesla is taking away ICE purchases. Samsung just released a bunch of new phones today and AAPL is up. But you know if Ford, GM or Honda released some new crappy shoebox SUV due out in 2025 the press would be shouting "Tesla killer".

 

[Carl Raymond]

It's not about what we think.
It's never about what we think.
It's about what the broader market thinks.

Two things.

One, this site is a microcosm of the broader market. When this site displays a generally positive vibe e.g. fewer qualified references to recession, brexit, trade wars... more references to Tesla imminent growth; I read that as a good time to buy.

Two, I have found no site more current and better informed. If I was a big fund deciding if it was time to buy TSLA, I would make reading this site my homework.

Conclusion. It *is*, by and large, about what we think.

p.s. Useless trivia: by and large is a sailing expression, like leeway, cut me some slack, get underway, cut and run, learn the ropes...

Edit: added the word ‘qualified’. Comments are qualified or disqualified by their like and disagree count. This further makes this site representative of ‘what we think’.