HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Well the Physicist in me, says the glass is in a box and its both full and empty at the same time.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Well the Physicist in me, says the glass is in a box and its both full and empty at the same time.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I found this part pretty satisfying... "they're not a small company any more... Tesla has 21% of the revenue that GM has"
Tesla have larger revenue than some of the traditional major players now. This was in our theoretical projections 5yrs ago, but, it still seems weirdly exciting to see it as reality. And the only way is up.
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dgodfrey
Member
To hard for me to try and find it but that infographic that Karen Rei did with the demand levers might benefit from this if not already on there.
I'm under the impression that with the 35K/internet only sales/overall lower prices changes, Tesla has strengthened the shorts/trolls in the short term, and weakened them in the medium-term: By August we'll have much more clarity on sales and margin for these bets.
They were bound to happen eventually, in any case. So the uncertainty will be removed sooner than expected. Of course they'll fabricate other FUD, but it will be harder to spread.
They were bound to happen eventually, in any case. So the uncertainty will be removed sooner than expected. Of course they'll fabricate other FUD, but it will be harder to spread.
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Tesla could roll out the Tesla Network rideshare app, with a Test-drive Request option. Owners could sign up to be rideshare drivers and/or test-drive agents/ambassadors if they so choose. Owners would get paid higher per-mile rates for giving test-drives vs rides and Tesla could consider these official test-drives, with buyers giving up the 7-day return option. Cheap option for Tesla, easy option for potential buyers to test-drive even in remote areas, would get more people engaged in the Tesla Network app before FSD rollout, and gives passionate owners an outlet to share, with a little money-making in the process.
SebastianR
Active Member
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate it. I did think about it and I disagree - let me explain why. I'm thinking that Tesla is always driven financially "on the edge" in order to accelerate their mission: "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."
If you take this as first principle, Wall St., Investors, Analysts etc. only count to the extent they are useful to achieve this mission. With Tesla stating for more than a year now that they will NOT raise more funds via equity, I believe their focus is elsewhere. So what are the biggest obstacles for legacy car makers to transition to EVs?
I see the following points:
a) Technology moat (e.g. efficiency, charging ability, integrated power electronics, lasting electric drive trains etc.)
b) Purchase Price (driven by e.g. costs of batteries, but also cost of power electronics etc.)
c) Battery Supplies (just amount, not cost)
d) Dealers (getting the cars out into customers)
e) Public charging networks
f) Making a profit on EVs
So if Tesla wants to move the needle, they need to bully, push and shock legacy car makers into making EVs.
The Model 3 addresses a) and b) - BUT other are not sleeping ref. e.g. BYD, NIO, Kia, VW I.D. etc. none of them are as good as the Model 3 but it is not that nobody does anything on that front.
The Gigafactory addresses b). When it was created it was unique. Today there are many Gigafactory like projects under development.
Ionity, Electrify America are examples how others are trying to catch up to Tesla's solution for e) (Superchargers).
So d) the Dealers remain and f) making a profit remains.
I do believe that Tesla's mission is focussing them on killing traditional Dealers and demonstrating they can make a profit with the Model 3. Think of it this way: if you are the CEO of VW (or any other legacy car maker) and you are asked why you can't do what Tesla does until today you could say that Tesla is not making a profit and that your own shareholders demand a profit. And if you have an EV, your dealers won't really sell it outside CARB states. If anybody challenges you with Q3/Q4 Tesla numbers you would claim that this doesn't count since those were 80k USD cars (I have seen this exact argument hundreds of times in German news media / discussion forums over the past 2 months).
We heard of the panic that the Model 3 tear down caused in some of the technical departments in the legacy crowd. Think what the panic would be caused if Tesla were to succeed in killing their dealership costs and if they were to make a (tiny) profit in Q1: it would show that Tesla is ruthlessly pursuing their mission. Think of the pressure any legacy car maker CEO would be under: there is a competitor that pursues market share, does so profitably while constantly lowering the cost of their product - i.e. if you plan to release a car in 2 years your cost base if likely off. (Remember: VW said they would offer "as good as Tesla, half the price").
This would clearly prompt for even more decisive action. And it would be the exact reason VW, GM, Toyota & Co. need to get their own answer to the points a) to f). Or else they will be gone.
Tesla could have made more money in an easier way. Tesla suffers many self-inflicted wounds. But Tesla is Mission driven. So that's why I take the above as backdrop to my investment thesis.
You said something has changed: I agree. I think Elon Musk sees this opportunity now (maybe the SR is completed faster than anticipated?) and I think he wants to strike as soon as he can.
EDIT: If cash was a huge problem for Tesla, we would see a very aggressive referral programme with prices far in the future - I'm not saying cash is no worry at all, I just think the above is more of a priority to Tesla right now.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I strongly prefer to walk in to a store for such a major purchase..... for the same price.
But I rather have a 6% discount. That is $2100 to $9000 savings.
I'll eventually retire in BC, near my old school in the Shuswap, or Kelowna. I may hv to sell this one and buy another for BC, maybe the Truck. It might be difficult to visit Jasper up north tbd, but doesnt affect the plan. Last year, I had trouble getting to the white mountains but a Super charger is coming soon. Small adjustments is all it takes. And people still run out of gas even today.
Adapt and reap the benefits. Way worth it.
I didn't because I didn't want that thread to become a copy of this one. Where people start to question the meaning of the numbers instead of the factuality of the numbers. It's the quarterly results sticky in the investors section, a thread to which all posters that are actually helpful, had already contributed previously.
For what it is worth, @ReflexFunds already said that his criticism here was based on a bad understanding of my method and that in his view, the method is indeed sound. That said, he did find a real error as well and had several good points where my assumptions were overly pessimistic. At this point, my corrected numbers would point to a cash position of $1.1M instead of $1.1B.
Interesting and encouraging. Why are German centers able to deliver that many cars while Tilburg, by all means the largest and best equipped one isn't able to sustain more than 40 on average?
sundaymorning
Active Member
Don't know but Weinstein is not the only one here. I ddi get reports from 30 - 60 per day but to be fair that may be peak days and other are slower.
Space in that DeC are limited and at start they even had to store them outside at a lawn therefore they now try to get them pushed out pickle if 2 or 3 trucks arrive.
That may also explain some buyers who complained the car was dirty.
Agreed.
I think with the release of $35k model 3, its really sending a message to all legacy auto manufacturer:
1) We will show that a compelling EV can be profitably made at $35k price point.
2) Your massmarket EV offering will need to be a) cheaper with same appeal or b) better at the same price point. This will basically kill your ICE business, but we don't care.
3) Either you adapt, join us in pushing EV, or we will consume and kill your business.
Tesla is forcing legacy auto's hands.
A lot of the analysis are done on the assumption that Tesla wants to maximize profit.
With such assumption one would conclude that the only reason Tesla does a price cut is due to demand issue.
What if the decision of price cut was made to reflect the company's mission statement?
"accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy." i.e. priority #1 is to maximize rate of transition to sustainable energy, with the necessary condition that it doesn't kill the company in the process.
Karen Ray said:
"Take that for what you will. I sympathize, as I'm in the same situation, but I'm certainly not going to make a short-sighted decision like that. It's like people who go and buy an ICE guzzler because, "Well, gas prices are low!", as if they're going to be low for the entire lifespan of the vehicle.[/QUOTE]
Unfortunately that is how many people decide on their purchase. Gas price low today - buy a gas guzzling pickup - gas price high today - buy a 50mpg econobox. No consideration of what the price might be tomorrow, much less a year or two down the road.
That is why it is so hard to get people to understand that the overall cost of owning an electric vehicle is less (or considerably less) than owning a ICE; not to mention the real cost when you include the damage they do to environment and health.
"Take that for what you will. I sympathize, as I'm in the same situation, but I'm certainly not going to make a short-sighted decision like that. It's like people who go and buy an ICE guzzler because, "Well, gas prices are low!", as if they're going to be low for the entire lifespan of the vehicle.[/QUOTE]
Unfortunately that is how many people decide on their purchase. Gas price low today - buy a gas guzzling pickup - gas price high today - buy a 50mpg econobox. No consideration of what the price might be tomorrow, much less a year or two down the road.
That is why it is so hard to get people to understand that the overall cost of owning an electric vehicle is less (or considerably less) than owning a ICE; not to mention the real cost when you include the damage they do to environment and health.
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SebastianR
Active Member
Thanks - you said what I tried to say so much more succinctly. We (investors) are not the target audience any longer. The legacy car makers are. And the message is "be scared and run for your life!"
I think this approach makes a lot of sense. Owners know more than the salespeople anyways.
I don't think owner compensation is particularly important beyond some token recognition of the effort.
Lucky_Man
Member
I'd be very pleased if Tesla would offer to come to our home with a car to test drive. I imagine this experience would be very helpful in the decision-making process. Hell, I'd even buy lunch (at a SuperCharger, of course). OK? Try to imagine what this experience would be like for yourselves.
Now.
Compare this experience, against the last one you've had at a ICE dealership. No hurry. Take your time...
THIS - is what disruption looks like! Nicely done, Elon.
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