Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I guess this is the pre-conditioning being implemented ASAP,

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[SpudLime]

latest from Elon

*Edit. Damnit, beat by 5 seconds.

 

[Tslynk67]

As was expected from the short-volume data, a lot of the selling in the past few days was done by short sellers:

TSLA short interest up to almost 27 million shares.

 

[S3XY]

I believe you are misreading what Elon said on the Q4 call, which was:

Martin Viecha:

Okay. Let's go to the next question, which is, if and when will Tesla switch Model S and X to 2170 battery cells? What percent range improvement do you expect?

Elon Musk:

We have no plans to switch S and X to 2170 and can't comment on huge product developments.​

Firstly, in the audio you can hear it how firmly he said it that there are no plans for a 2170 switch: the background is that the 18,650 uses the same advanced chemistry, so there's no point in changing the S/X over to 2170 at this point.

Secondly the 'huge' was probably 'future', and he is simply replying to he question about percentage of range improvements expected - it's a standard reply to refuse to say anything numeric about future products.

Especially as we know it that going from 18,650 to 2170 would probably bring very little range improvement: they have very similar mass density - the thing were the 2170 packs are better is volumetric density, which was a necessary improvement to fit the 78 kWh pack into the smaller Model 3. The Model S/X has enough space for the 18,650 cells, at least for the current battery pack sizes.

The S and X has been improved continuously over the years, and there's two expected S/X refreshes this year: the HW3 upgrade and related functionality which I'm sure will motivate some buyers, plus the rumored interior refresh.

Tesla's path to growth is in expanding Model 3 production and bootstrapping Model Y, a major refresh of the S/X this year or even next year would probably be a misallocation of capex resources.

Assuming the 18650's are using the same chemistry as the 2170's how many other components would need to be improved in order for the S&X to take advantage of the SuC v3 increased charge rate? The only thing I've heard mention of is undersized wiring. What else would need to be upgraded?

As others have mentioned I think there's a possibility of this being the one more thing on Pi day. With the release of the SuC v3 it would only make sense to upgrade their premium offerings to enable them to take advantage of them. The other hint is the price cuts. Tesla does not appear to have a big demand issue with the S&X's so why would they drastically reduce the prices? I think it's to clear out the current inventory of legacy parts and finished product. It also reduces hurt feelings for recent purchasers who might be angry for missing out on the upgrade. I say this because I expect the upgraded S&X's to be priced higher, possibly back to where they were before the recent cuts. Your thoughts?

 

[Tslynk67]

tsla-8k_20190301.htm

Something something China

Go on, Elon, I dare you to Tweet #FundingSecured

 

[Tslynk67]

It's pretty amazing that we are 7 days from Y reveal and there are basically zero leaks.

Was the same for M3 and who had any idea about R2??

Tight as a mouse's ear!

 

[Todd Burch]

Michael Schwekutsch VP of engineering has left

Never heard of him, don't care.

 

[VValleyEV]

No and no. You’ll see.

I just followed some links to see cost of TV advertising campaigns. YIKES. I think I may have changed my mind.

 

[Krugerrand]

You were smoking right along with Elon on that podcast weren't you? lol
Dan

I did not inhale.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Assuming the 18650's are using the same chemistry as the 2170's how many other components would need to be improved in order for the S&X to take advantage of the SuC v3 increased charge rate? The only thing I've heard mention of is undersized wiring. What else would need to be upgraded?

As others have mentioned I think there's a possibility of this being the one more thing on Pi day. With the release of the SuC v3 it would only make sense to upgrade their premium offerings to enable them to take advantage of them. The other hint is the price cuts. Tesla does not appear to have a big demand issue with the S&X's so why would they drastically reduce the prices? I think it's to clear out the current inventory of legacy parts and finished product. It also reduces hurt feelings for recent purchasers who might be angry for missing out on the upgrade. I say this because I expect the upgraded S&X's to be priced higher, possibly back to where they were before the recent cuts. Your thoughts?

I say there's a decent chance of an S&X surprise following the Y reveal. I'd put it at 5-10%. There are bread crumbs that wouldn't make it completely out of left field.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I did not inhale.

You got it wrong - You don't exhale

 

[elasalle]

latest from Elon

View attachment 383965


*Edit. Damnit, beat by 5 seconds.

IF You're Beat, Don't Repeat ..DELETE

 

[Cosmacelf]

tsla-8k_20190301.htm

Something something China

That’s the 8-K for the Chinese loan. Right now, it looks like a 1 year loan for about $500M at 3.9%. Not awesome. The rate is just ok, and a one year term?? Co-incident with that, they’ve extended their US asset backed loan into 2023, and tacked on the ability to borrow another $500M. Anyone know what the interest rate is for the ABL?

 

[Leo9]

Tesla is reportedly sending hourly employees home early and asking them to take time off as the company cuts costs

Tesla is engaging in a significant cost-cutting effort that has affected employee work schedules and the supply of some small parts used to make vehicles, CNBC reports.

CNBC describes three cost-reduction measures that Tesla has not made public:

• Asking employees to work remotely and keep travel to a minimum.
• Telling hourly employees at the Gigafactory — the Sparks, Nevada, factory where Tesla makes batteries and drivetrains — to leave in the middle of their shifts and asking them to take paid or unpaid time off.
• A reduction in the amount of some small parts, like rivets and fasteners, available at Tesla's vehicle assembly plant in Fremont, California.

 

[jhm]

Completely agree here on all of your points. The S and X revenue is still needed to be stable, especially with the margins they have.

But importantly, the higher end vehicles need to keep pushing the sector forward......as the 3 and upcoming Y are doing for the lower end segment. The offerings that I'm seeing from other auto companies are already disappointing in terms of range and in all cases, can't match a existing S and/or X. The longer the S and X stay in their current form without being upgraded, the more traditional auto makers are going to feel its ok to have a their flagship models have just 220-275 miles of range. To me, that hurts the overall adoption for EVs, especially in the high end segment. I think there will be a lot more adoption in the general public when battery ranges are in the 400-450 area. Not necessarily because the general public can afford the high end versions.....but because it creates a lot of eye grabbing headlines and people naturally start to then inquire about EV options in general

You know, I'm pretty close to just giving up on all the traditional OEMs to survive the EV transition. We could be looking at 90% of the auto industry divided among Tesla, 3 or 4 Chinese EV makers, and a couple of new start ups. The rest of the auto industry won't be worth much at all. So Tesla stands to capture 20% to 50% of the entire auto industry. It used to be about spurring automakers to get serious about EVs. Now it's more like, "F'em, we've got to replace these incompetent losers."

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla is reportedly sending hourly employees home early and asking them to take time off as the company cuts costs

Tesla is engaging in a significant cost-cutting effort that has affected employee work schedules and the supply of some small parts used to make vehicles, CNBC reports.

CNBC describes three cost-reduction measures that Tesla has not made public:

• Asking employees to work remotely and keep travel to a minimum.
• Telling hourly employees at the Gigafactory — the Sparks, Nevada, factory where Tesla makes batteries and drivetrains — to leave in the middle of their shifts and asking them to take paid or unpaid time off.
• A reduction in the amount of some small parts, like rivets and fasteners, available at Tesla's vehicle assembly plant in Fremont, California.

Lol CNBC grasping at straws.

Also if you read in the actual article, their own "supposed" leaks are giving bullish information. Giga not producing 7k battery packs a week yet(which we know might not be true since our source says they've been doing 6.5-7/week all quarter). And aiming for 8,000/week which equates to 416,000 cars a year...….does CNBC realize that Giga battery production is just Model 3? 416,000 Model 3 rate at this point in the year is great lol. Tesla news is becoming so positive that CNBC tries their hardest to bury the positives news under the headline of bad news(and the first 4 paragraphs)

 

[Krugerrand]

Hmmm...I bought 2 M3's with no test drives or ever having sat in a Tesla.

Ack!! Not possible!

 

[lklundin]

Just realized that here in Iceland, on flat ground in the summer, "75 miles in 5 minutes" is actually more like 2 hours of driving in 5 minutes (top speed = 90kph/56mph, and range is longer at lower speeds)

Gasoline is so freaking dead.

(Yes, yes, I know, there's always some per-stop time overhead )

WIth a speed limit of 90 km/h, the difference between 120 kW and 250 kW is actually quite small - at least until you get your tow bar.

For a LR RWD, the effective traveling speed when actually driving 90 km/h and when charging at 120 kW is 83 km/h, and if the charging power is increased to 250 kW, the effective traveling speed goes up to 87 km/h. (The difference up to the 90 km/h is basically cut in half by doubling the charging power).

So while I hope that Iceland (and everyone else) get v3 Supercharging, places with low speed limits would suffer the least from not getting them. This would include Norway, that has rather few stretches with highways.

It follows that Germany would benefit the most from v3.

If the actual driving speed for a LR RWD is 180 km/h, then the effective traveling speed is 123 km/h with 120 kW charging. Increasing the charging power to 250 kW increases the effective traveling speed to 148 km/h, so a significant difference.

For higher driving speeds the difference in charging power has greater effect.

With 120 kW charging a driving speed of 192 km/h minimizes the sum of driving and charging (for an effective traveling speed still at 123 km/h), while with 250 kW charging the LR RWD would have to drive at full speed (around 235 km/h) to minimize the sum of the driving and charging time (for an effective traveling speed of 160 km/h).

Since Tesla seems to itch to give the Tesla smack down to especially the Germans and their ICEs I would not be surprised to see the v3 deployed liberally along the Autobahn. That will really hurt the Germans, to be overtaken by Teslas on the very Autobahn that they have kept speed limit free exactly to provide a market for their expensive German cars.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

tsla-8k_20190301.htm

Something something China

Perhaps someone with more experience in these matters can me to understand, but it looks like Tesla just borrowed an additional $700 million and extended repayment terms by 3 years. Is that correct?

 

[andrewt3000]

You know, I'm pretty close to just giving up on all the traditional OEMs to survive the EV transition. ."

Pretty close? I gave up on them years ago. They are like blockbuster and kodak... dead man walking. Seriously... they are too conflicted with their existing business to change.

Tesla has zero competition from Big Auto