Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[S3XY]

You are looking at a single quarter that was not totally terrible for Tesla. Let's compare again for Q1 2019 and see how things look.

I don't have a dog in this fight, other than owning and being slightly disappointed in Tesla products and owning and being generally satisfied with BMW products.

It is in my financial best interest for Tesla to succeed, since I have a decent chunk of change tied up in one of their rapidly depreciating assets.

Then why are you hanging out and repeatedly posting in the Tesla Investors threads? I would think you'd be better served in the Model 3 section or even a BMW board.

 

[jerry33]

At this point, spinning off Tesla Energy and the charging network is probably a better idea. Maintain a majority stake in both, but see if the other automakers/utilities wants some shares in exchange for being on the network.

I doubt it will be better, especially the charging network. The industry is going CCS, and Tesla will too (including an adaptor for older cars) once there are enough CCS locations to make it worthwhile. There are already a lot of CCS locations in Canada, but not enough Teslas. The energy part needs some handholding, and in a different company they wouldn't get that--just like it didn't work out that well before they became part of Tesla.

 

[Remus]

Why are you still using anecdotal data, and why are you extrapolating it to an invalid, emotional conclusion? It's sloppy and unscientific, and has little to do with informed investment decisions.

friends don't let friends show ignored content.

 

[Buddyroe]

Must be one of those sheeple you mentioned earlier that don't subscribe to your 'objective" opinions.[/QUOTE]

No. Actually, she hates the X. Which model do you dislike?

 

[voip-ninja]

Then why are you hanging out and repeatedly posting in the Tesla Investors threads? I would think you'd be better served in the Model 3 section or even a BMW board.

Because I own a Tesla and am interested in how the company is performing in the market? Or is this thread only for Tesla longs and sycophants because it sure seems that way.

 

[Tenable]

I think the demographics of this group is a lot more homogenized than you realize.

What do you think we all look like?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Saskatchewan runs on Corner Gas.

OT

Like Gas/Oil everywhere, this is the fate of Dog River.

 

[JRP3]

Roadster 600 miles range. It’s possible.

I can only assume that you fail to understand that you just reinforced my point.

 

[JRP3]

What do you think we all look like?

Obviously we're all clones of Elon.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Something I just noticed: there is a lack of comparisons against other manufacturers in media reports. Looking around, I can only find a single such article(on CNET). Instead, most articles make vague mentions of “competition”, while avoiding actually doing any real comparisons.

This tells me that, much as I expected from the specs and prices, any head-head comparison against said competition is expected to come out very negatively for everyone else but Tesla.

 

[Do It]

It's certainly not FUD to debate the decisions Tesla leadership is making, nor did I say that they NEED to raise capital or they will go bankrupt. My point was that raising capital would have prevented Tesla from having to make some hard (and rash) choices sooner than they wanted to and might also help them accelerate development of their new products at a time that competitors are also ramping up investment.

I don't think recent decisions were prompted by urgent capital needs. My guess is that there might be a small demand air pocket - not long term but temporary. This needed to be addressed regardless of capital need.

No need to worry about competitors - the gap has widened in the last 10 years.

Tesla has been growing revenue roughly 50% year over year and maintaining that rate is more than enough to justify $500+ market cap (and meet most people's expectation.) Existing models plus model Y in 2020 (and semi, energy, roadster, etc.) should be sufficient. I don't think to grow 50% for the next year or two requires capital raise.

Making quick decisions and correcting any mistakes if necessary is one of the reasons Elon was able to go this far. We should trust Elon's judgement and his abilty to constantly adjust.

It is a matter of optimizing the process rather than "running out of money".

 

[lklundin]

I just read on fb about a Tesla owner who was warned that he should come on time for his maintenance appointment next week in Hasselt, because otherwise he might have a long wait time because of a massive amount of deliveries. Hasselt is about 2h away from Zeebrugge.

Personally I called the Ghent (less than one hour from Zeebrugge) Sec to make an appointment for my tire swap to summer tires. Much to my surprise, after a long time on hold, somebody from a different sec answered the phone, explaining that Ghent was too busy with delivering Model 3s to pick up the phone, and that she would send a mail so that ghent would call me back. No phone call so far.
so yes, they are in full 'throw everything we ve got' mode to deliver any remaining model 3's

You never know with March weather, maybe you should postpone your tire swap appointment to April.

Just trying to help.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think it was Elon who made the point that it's a level of maturity for a company to become more capital efficient and grow via internally generated cash, and that this kind of maturity has feedback effects that improve efficiency and growth immensely.

Yup. Here's the quote from the 2018Q2 CC, and a bonus:

"We certainly could raise money, but I think we do not need to, … and I think it's better discipline not to."​

"If it's not a million it is going to be pretty close. I would say if it is not a million it will be 750,000 or something like that in 2020. … We'll aim for a million by 2020, but somewhere between a half a million and a million seems pretty likely"​

Think the SEC read that quote?

Cheers!

 

[lklundin]

Yeah...……..Gene is pretty clueless. Tesla is not going to raise cash by issuing stock and at the current price point, every investors should not want them to raise cash through issuing stock. Maybe if the stock was where it should be in the 500/share range.....but I'm not ok with them issuing stock at this ridiculously low share price.

Has anybody here ever been to Morocco?

I mean, these Wall Street types are pushing their wish for a cash raise more insistently than a Berber carpet seller...

 

[KarenRei]

So, in regards to Tesla's troubles gaining traction lately... I suggest we take a lesson from the space race.

During World War II, the Nazis had the best rocketry programme in the world. After the war, the US rounded up most of the key rocketry figures during Operation Paperclip. They were all debriefed to gather as much useful information as possible from them, and the US then applied the knowledge to its own rocketry programme.

Which was a big failure.

Eventually, the US started putting key Nazi rocketry figures such as Wernher von Braun in top leadership positions in the US rocket programme. And they totally turned it around. The decision to hand the programme over to the Nazi engineers was directly responsible for the successful Apollo landings on the moon.

I think the lesson for Tesla here is clear: we need to hand control of the company over to Nazis.

I'll try to track down some contact info for these guys and see if they want upper management and board positions.

The one in the white shirt looks like CEO material.

 

[SO16]

Or is this thread only for Tesla longs and sycophants because it sure seems that way.

Correct. Go spend time on yahoo comments, twitter and reddit if you want the other.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I have yet to see any shred of proof that there is a demand issue or demand air pocket. We have verifiable evidence that contradicts a demand air pocket. The only thing that could be softening demand is S/X but that production is replaced by Model 3(more 3's through the paint shop).

 

[Smokey4141]

I'd suggest patience: the long term debt schedule is almost empty for the next 2 years, so cash earned from operations for the next 24 months can go almost entirely towards growth. If it just stays at the current ~$1.2b levels then that's ~10 billion dollars of investments.

I'm guessing you're using the term "long term debt" purposefully, but you're not mentioning the "short-term" debt due this year...
Which is not "fact-checking" at all, regarding the point of your response..

There is both the:
4/1 - $182M - Solar City debt - (that they've been rolling forward month to month, for a few months now)
11/1 - $566M - Tesla convertible bond

Again, you're technically correct - not "long-term" debt - but your statement about "cash earned from operations.....can go almost entirely towards growth".......while ignoring the short-term debt.....is not right either...

 

[HG Wells]

What do you think we all look like?

Humans mostly, one venusian, one martian and a couple of AI's.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Either Adam Jonas indirectly has chips in the game, or he is stupid. Maybe both. Buying Model 3 today can save quite a bit compared with buying Model Y in 2 years

Don't forget the coming ~3% price increase. So it's more like Janus missed this:

"Buying Model 3 today can save quite a bit compared with buying Model 3 in 2 days"​

Morgan Stanley is short TSLA. That's why Janus consistently spreads FUD on Tesla, and his production predictions have be consistently terribly inaccurate.

The only thing Janus does well is sound the dog whistle, coordinating bear raids from the shortz. Look at his note to clients in July 2018 which caused a drop from $360 to $300 in a week. Janus' claim? Tesla won't be able to maintain 5,000/wk Model 3 production, and it would remain below 4,000/wk until May 2019.

Why is it people listen to him? Oh yeah, it's fast money for the shortz.

Despicable that this is a 'Profession'.