Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhzmark]

But you're factually wrong! He did look up the history of how to propel and sell cars.

I think it was Marc Tarpenning who gave a lecture explaining that in the early days of Tesla they researched all the startup car companies of the late 19th century and figured out which business models succeeded and which failed. Of course, most of this 19th century history is long-forgotten by most people now -- they did their homework.

This is why Tesla started at the top of the market, not at the bottom of the market like all the other -- failed -- EV startups (which were run by people who didn't do their homework). Because Musk, Straubel, Tarpenning, and Eberhard did do their homework. They figured out you had to start at the top of the market.

History is different from the current rule book. Indeed the history can be full of good examples to suggest one to throw out the current rule book: which says to propel with ICE and use franchise dealers to sell. And it says to have a UI with a thousand expensive buttons in the cabin etc. He absolutely threw out the rule book and we are the beneficiaries of him having done so.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Does Tesla need to expand the foot-print of GF-1 (Elon said it was 1/3rd complete) to meet the "fall next year" time-line? Looks like much of the site prep has been completed, and the site doesn't need the extensive geo-tech work necessary at Shanghai, so it could go up quickly if the structural steel, etc. has been ordered.

Yes I've heard GF1 is currently full in both the Tesla and Panasonic sections with battery capacity at c.26 gWh.
The current capacity is in a smaller building than initially planned, I think because they have increased to 4 floors from initial plans for 2.

But we are going to have to see external construction start again soon both for Y production and battery capacity expansion. I don't think this is likely to take too long though. Does anyone remember how long it took for the last section to be built onto the factory?

 

[Krugerrand]

It is infuriating. They have a link on their website to ask questions. My question is simple. Where the truck has a spare tire space. Will the SUV have a space for a spare as well? I have emailed them 3 times with this question, I have tried their facebook page as well. Zero response.

Maybe non-answer means nobody knows?

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Are you of the opinion that those three options will come to the Model 3 soon? I don't think they'll ever come to the Model 3: luxury convenience features and extra space are differentiation for the S/X.

Doesn't the MY come with a power trunk?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Why are all the semi parked on the side of GF3? Didn’t Elon say he wants the assembly line near the dock to reduce parts movement? Parts/raw materials comes in one end and finished cars out the other end? I can’t imagine the large semi trucks made in China and shipped to North America.

 

[Sean Wagner]

The one in the white shirt looks like CEO material.

Now I have visions of sticking him in a giant jackboot that goes right above his cranium so just the torch sticks out.

Didn't show up at the reunion on time? No torchholders for YOU!

 

[Lessmog]

Off topic

Believe it or not, not that many people want to buy a car where servicing it requires a week's ferry trip :Þ

Also, while we have a very high total EV adoption rate, 3/4ths are PHEVs, not BEVs, because our charging network sucks. Didn't even exist outside the capitol region until a year ago. And nothing more powerful than 50kW in the country. Oh, and the tax incentives are big for low-end vehicles, but not so much for vehicles with prices like what the S and X used to be.

BTW, there's rumours that the upcoming Tesla service centre is going to be in a building just a couple hundred meters away from me

Maybe things have changed since, but I saw one "fast" charger in Akureyri* during a visit almost three years ago (July 2016). At or near the Civic Center (black circular building) if I recall correctly. I did not bring my MS, but did see one red MS at the Keflavík car park. So cannot confirm functionality nor capacity or cost. Still, I found it encouraging. Made a point of displaying the streamer from Tesla Club Sweden "This car will do until I get my Tesla Model 3" prominently in the diesel rental Hyundai

Congratulations to the drastic reduction of service travel distance!

* Second biggest town?

 

[mongo]

Why are all the semi parked on the side of GF3? Didn’t Elon say he wants the assembly line near the dock to reduce parts movement? Parts/raw materials comes in one end and finished cars out the other end? I can’t imagine the large semi trucks made in China and shipped to North America.

The assembly line runs the longways down the building. Look at the sprung assembly line for reference.

 

[Fact Checking]

There is both the:
4/1 - $182M - Solar City debt - (that they've been rolling forward month to month, for a few months now)
11/1 - $566M - Tesla convertible bond

That's $748m.

your statement about "cash earned from operations.....can go almost entirely towards growth"....

4xH2'18 cash from from operating activities is ~10,500m, i.e. over 90% of the cash earned, i.e. "almost entirely" all of it, can go towards growth.

But cash earned might further increase as Model 3 and other products ramp up and gets sold more globally, not just in North America, plus efficiencies increase.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Thoughts on battery sizes for the Y? The long range/AWD/Performance seems likely to use the Model 3 LR pack. But I'm having more difficulty with the SR Y. 230 miles seems way too good for the SR+ Model 3 pack(that would only be a ~4% decrease vs. ~9% for the LR/AWD). The next step up would be the MR pack, but that would both mean the equivalent 3 is *more* expensive and would seem too poor(~13% decrease in efficiency). A less populated 3MR pack, or its own pack maybe?

 

[X Fan]

So, in regards to Tesla's troubles gaining traction lately... I suggest we take a lesson from the space race.

During World War II, the Nazis had the best rocketry programme in the world. After the war, the US rounded up most of the key rocketry figures during Operation Paperclip. They were all debriefed to gather as much useful information as possible from them, and the US then applied the knowledge to its own rocketry programme.

Which was a big failure.

Eventually, the US started putting key Nazi rocketry figures such as Wernher von Braun in top leadership positions in the US rocket programme. And they totally turned it around. The decision to hand the programme over to the Nazi engineers was directly responsible for the successful Apollo landings on the moon.

I think the lesson for Tesla here is clear: we need to hand control of the company over to Nazis.

I'll try to track down some contact info for these guys and see if they want upper management and board positions.

The one in the white shirt looks like CEO material.

Sorry, nothing about the Nazis is funny....

Speaking of which, VW’s CEO inserted foot in mouth the other day using a Nazi slogan in a public setting.

 

[DaveT]

Thoughts on battery sizes for the Y? The long range/AWD/Performance seems likely to use the Model 3 LR pack. But I'm having more difficulty with the SR Y. 230 miles seems way too good for the SR+ Model 3 pack(that would only be a ~4% decrease vs. ~9% for the LR/AWD). The next step up would be the MR pack, but that would both mean the equivalent 3 is *more* expensive and would seem too poor(~13% decrease in efficiency). A less populated 3MR pack, or its own pack maybe?

I think it's going to be a Model 3 Mid-range battery pack, as is. And they're counting on being able to decrease costs within 2 years to be able to offer is as SR for Model Y.

 

[KarenRei]

Off topic

Maybe things have changed since, but I saw one "fast" charger in Akureyri* during a visit almost three years ago (July 2016). At or near the Civic Center (black circular building) if I recall correctly. I did not bring my MS, but did see one red MS at the Keflavík car park. So cannot confirm functionality nor capacity or cost. Still, I found it encouraging. Made a point of displaying the streamer from Tesla Club Sweden "This car will do until I get my Tesla Model 3" prominently in the diesel rental Hyundai

Congratulations to the drastic reduction of service travel distance!

* Second biggest town?

Yeah, we've had them in Reykjavík, and to a lesser extent Akureyri for a while. But that doesn't help you drive the ring road That only happened about a year ago.

 

[KarenRei]

Sorry, nothing about the Nazis is funny....

Speaking of which, VW’s CEO inserted foot in mouth the other day using a Nazi slogan in a public setting.

Whoa, seriously? What did he say?

 

[Krugerrand]

So what should Tesla's market cap be? $100B? $300B? Future growth potential only matters if the company has demonstrated they can reliably execute.

Your argument is ridiculous. They’ve executed just fine. Perfection is not a requirement for successfully full-filling the mission. Part one. Check. Part two. On it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Still trying to figure out the "one more thing" Elon said was there but everyone missed:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"There was something, but no one caught it"​

Here are the guesses I've seen so far:

• European Gigafactory by early 2021 confirmed via the Model Y FAQ and the order page. Problem: this is news, but it wasn't during the presentation, so it cannot be what Elon is referencing.
• Tesla Semis clearly rendered as part of the Shanghai Gigafactory by the end of 2019.
• There's reports on Reddit that an image of a pickup truck flashed on the screen for 0.5 seconds, but the guests were already leaving and there's no video.
• Elon made a cryptic reference to a Model S 2, which was also on the license plate. Model S v2, i.e. refresh?

 

[HG Wells]

Still trying to figure out the "one more thing" Elon said was there but everyone missed:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"There was something, but no one caught it"​

Here are the guesses I've seen so far:

• European Gigafactory by early 2021 confirmed via the Model Y FAQ and the order page. Problem: this is news, but it wasn't during the presentation, so it cannot be what Elon is referencing.
• Tesla Semis clearly rendered as part of the Shanghai Gigafactory by the end of 2019.
• There's reports on Reddit that an image of a pickup truck flashed on the screen for 0.5 seconds, but the guests were already leaving and there's no video.
• Elon made a cryptic reference to a Model S 2, which was also on the license plate. Model S v2, i.e. refresh?

A Tesla on mars.

 

[elasalle]

Still trying to figure out the "one more thing" Elon said was there but everyone missed:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"There was something, but no one caught it"​

Here are the guesses I've seen so far:

• European Gigafactory by early 2021 confirmed via the Model Y FAQ and the order page. Problem: this is news, but it wasn't during the presentation, so it cannot be what Elon is referencing.
• Tesla Semis clearly rendered as part of the Shanghai Gigafactory by the end of 2019.
• There's reports on Reddit that an image of a pickup truck flashed on the screen for 0.5 seconds, but the guests were already leaving and there's no video.
• Elon made a cryptic reference to a Model S 2, which was also on the license plate. Model S v2, i.e. refresh?

S2 refresh seems to be the only one they would not want to mention prior to Q1 ending ..

 

[Buddyroe]

Enjoy your Y!

Oh, I will. It's a Tesla. The worst Tesla is still worlds better than any other car (not saying the Y is tho).

Just so everyone knows. I may gripe about something Tesla here among friends. But, to others, there are no negative words. I just have super high expectations of Tesla. The Model S is without a doubt the greatest vehicle ever created (IMO) - fast, functional, safe, and incredibly sporty and sexy. I just expected that they'd be able to replicate that level with every model they release.

 

[riverFox]

Still trying to figure out the "one more thing" Elon said was there but everyone missed:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"There was something, but no one caught it"​

Here are the guesses I've seen so far:

• European Gigafactory by early 2021 confirmed via the Model Y FAQ and the order page. Problem: this is news, but it wasn't during the presentation, so it cannot be what Elon is referencing.
• Tesla Semis clearly rendered as part of the Shanghai Gigafactory by the end of 2019.
• There's reports on Reddit that an image of a pickup truck flashed on the screen for 0.5 seconds, but the guests were already leaving and there's no video.
• Elon made a cryptic reference to a Model S 2, which was also on the license plate. Model S v2, i.e. refresh?

Did anyone get a good look at the S/X interiors on stage?