Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Seems most likely that we are looking at the windshield which extends to the very front.

Reasons:

1. White lights not red
2. Similar to Blade Runner Spinner vehicle:

Problems:

1. Glass breakage in small prang
2. How do you access the frunk? Tool drawers would be cool. Partial access from cockpit like Bollinger?:

Yeah, and remember, the Blade Runner Spinner is a FLYING CAR!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That's the baseline expectations by past seasonal patterns: Q1 2018 S+X deliveries were 21.8k units vs. 28.3k units in Q4 2017: -6.5k units fewer.

Tesla in Q4'18 delivered 27.5k S+X units, so the baseline would be 21k units in Q1 - but the tax credit cliff would possibly reduce this below 20k.

Also, now that it’s 100kWh only, they’d be hitting a lower constraint on battery supply.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Seems most likely that we are looking at the windshield which extends to the very front.

Reasons:

1. White lights not red
2. Similar to Blade Runner Spinner vehicle:

Problems:

1. Glass breakage in small prang
2. How do you access the frunk? Tool drawers would be cool. Partial access from cockpit like Bollinger?:

View attachment 386935

For #2: how about if the front bumper there is a drawer and can pull out when parked? Of course, with a giant bed, there may not be as much need for front storage.

 

[EVNow]

No. I'm wondering what makes you think there is no demand?

By "no demand" you mean not 350k (i.e. 30k per month) worth of demand per year in the US ?

EM says the demand is about 500k worldwide. So you can just go by that and even if half of that is US, we are looking at 250k.

Are you really saying there is consistent demand for 350k Model 3s in US per year ?

ps : 2018 entire small/mid luxury car sales in US was 388k.

Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America – December 2018 | GCBC

 

[TradingInvest]

Near the end of the clip, Baron said Telsa had "reduced the Cobalt content of the battery from 20-30% to 2 or 3%" Was the cobalt content in NCA cells ever close to 20%?

Also, he said Tesla vehicles get 4.1 miles/kWh while competitors' cars are only capable of 2.5 miles/kWh. Is that accurate?

In the first full year, my LR Model 3 averaged 0.245 kWh/mile. That's 4.08 miles/kWh. We had a very cold winter, also I always set the temperature to comfortable level, never slow down to reduce battery drain. Otherwise I probably can average 5 miles/kWh.

I saw some real world mileage of i-Pace and e-tron, not sure about those test conditions, those numbers are close to 2.5 miles/kWh.

 

[Smokey4141]

Those look like Porsche 911 rear seats.

I couldn't fit there if you gave me 100 shares of TSLA.

I used to have a Porsche 928... Fun car to drive, but the 2+2 seating... Oh man..

Those rear seats were good for only two things...
A few bags of groceries, and checking off someone's box that said "Yep, it's got 4 seats.."... hahaha

 

[pnungesser]

S3XY, followed by FU? Yeah, unfortunately I can actually imagine Elon going for that.

Ford wouldn't let Elon call the M3 an ME because they had claim the E designation. I'm sure they would also claim rights to the F designation.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Not the target audience. Unless it looks cool enough to overcome bias. I'm expecting it to be super expensive anyhow so niche market anyway.

Yes, it's a pick-up. The appearance at the reveal will be to get some attention and play a mental game to get people thinking about the fact that current pick-ups are really the same, but with small tweaks. The aim is to get them to consider something different.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Also, he said Tesla vehicles get 4.1 miles/kWh while competitors' cars are only capable of 2.5 miles/kWh. Is that accurate?

Yep. Particularly if you’re looking at the “SUV” competition(which is shaping up to be most of it). For example, the eTron uses a 95kWh battery. They advertise a 250 mile range, which would be 2.63 miles/kWh. But that’s on an older and notoriously over optimistic standard. EPA estimate isn’t done, but is expected to be around 220 miles, giving 2.32 miles/kWh.

Meanwhile, even the Y is shaping up to be ~4 miles/kWh(300 miles / likely 75kWh battery).

 

[capster]

Judging by the somewhat defensive/defiant messages Elon has been sending on the subject:

”I’m personally super-excited by this pickup truck. It’s something I’ve been wanting to make for a long time. And I’ve been iterating sort of designs with Franz ... It’s like I really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk. Which, if it doesn’t ... if I’m weirdly like ... if there’s only a small number of people that like that truck, I guess we’ll make a more conventional truck in the future. But it’s the thing that I am personally most fired up about. It’s gonna have a lot of titanium.”​

IMHO Elon got pushback from Franz and other confidants for the Blade Runner design, and still I'm 100% certain that this summer that design is going to be unveiled and not a conventional one.

Which means it's 2-3 years more waiting for you. The prototype is probably already being built, the teaser image is obvious, so we are well beyond the point of no return.

And yes, it's probably the first major mistake Elon made in a long time. On the plus side I don't think it's going to matter: the Model 3 will take Europe in a storm, the Model Y will dominate America, and the Semi Truck is going to generate a lot of cash.

The Pickup Truck might not be as popular as a more traditional design - but that's OK, the initial run will IMO be a relatively low unit count, so it's more of a Roadster 2020 halo product, not super critical to the bottom line.

​

I’ve a different take FC and, in particular, don’t buy your pushback opinion.

I’d be very surprised if Elon was just indulging his own taste.

EV powertrain packaging requirements offer different and arguably more opportunities for designers than those of ICEV’s.

There is an opportunity for Tesla to redefine truck design to the degree seen with diesel locomotives compared to steam locomotives. In one stroke Tesla could consign traditional truck design to the dustbin (two if you count Semi).

There is the risk that truck buyers are too traditional to buy which is what I think Elon is acknowledging. Given our youth obsessed culture and too often ageist work world, I’m inclined to believe it’s a sound bet. The young may buy first this time, but the broader market will ultimately buy. It is possible the new design will make Tesla’s pickups more useful than traditional design too. Of course, it’s certain to be a better product overall; torque alone will see to that.

So it is a business gamble. But I would think the designers would jump at the opportunity to fill such white space in the design world.

BTW, it’s not impossible that the truck teaser is a tonneau cover, perhaps an integrated one. That would fit with the mission and the choice of image with Elon’s sense of humor.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Thinking more about it, cyberpunk is probably the right way to go with the truck. You’re never going to beat gas trucks on their own styling; it intentionally plays to the more he-man primal side of things. So might as well just lean into the fact that it’s electric and go full bore into sci-fi futurism to give the same cool factor.

(Sports cars like the Roadster are different. They’re styled to be sleek already)

 

[pnungesser]

Grand Venus docked in Belgium! Two more in route.

 

[lascavarian]

The pickup truck speculation has me wanting to throw in my $.02. I currently own a 2004 F-150 with 230,000 miles and have a 2018 Corolla that I just bought as a daily driver for a 70 mile (round trip) daily commute. I now use the truck for my hobbies: hunting, fishing, hauling canoes, camping, etc. Stereotypical southern guy activities I guess.

Very much appreciate your comments since you may be typical of the thinking of many truck owners. I have a 23 yr old Jeep I am nursing along

I have also been through a very similar anxiety with motorcycles. Your comments about the Ridgeline compare to the choice HD riders had when HD bought Buell motorcycles about 2000. Eric Buell was an engineer and the Buell engineered bikes were superior to the performance and handling of the typical HD product. But HD had spent years creating a culture or lifestyle type of branding related to their products steeped in history. The Buell designs focused on engineering and stuck out like a sore thumb and the dealers did not want them on the showroom.

This is the problem traditional dealers will have when trying to mix EV and traditional trucks together on the same showroom. The EV trucks will have humbling specs but be different in an annoying way...

Buell was the future that HD could have planned for but instead HD closed Buell (rather than sell it and leave a competitor on the field). I have the last one of a rare Buell model manufactured in 2010 (stellar product) and now HD has lost a lot of customers and is trying to entice a younger demographic with HD EV bikes. Good luck with that.

So I think that Ford, Chevy, Ram will make EV trucks but sell very few because they have for years built the image of the pickup into one that really cannot be evolved.

My guess is that a lot of buyers will hang onto the iconic pickup for quite a few years. Prices will go up while EV prices will go down. Maybe Detroit will survive by splitting the business with EV done online and ICE done through dealers. That might work.

6 years from now, it will be hard to pay 20% more for an ICE truck but Detroit will have to keep the prices up to survive in a shrinking market they are slowly losing to upstarts. I think the buying interest will be frozen by the new & superior engineering in EVs. Just my thinking on this, I cannot really see any way out and same with HD.

I am very happy with our Model 3.

I need a practical quad cab 200ish mi range towing monster for my uses and I can bury the Jeep at that point. It does not have to be a Tesla product but it does have to have a factory tow package and used is fine.

 

[RobStark]

Will the Model X platformed Boring Co shuttle be road legal? - could this be the minibus or a variation of it?

That was a rendering from Jalopnik years ago when Elon speculated on making a Minibus type vehicle years ago.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Maybe Grimes will fit. Maybe.

Fold her in half maybe...which is probably entirely possible come to think of it.

Dan

 

[ZachF]

S3XY, followed by FU? Yeah, unfortunately I can actually imagine Elon going for that.

All you need then is a Model A ---> US3XYAF

 

[Creekstalker]

So I think that Ford, Chevy, Ram will make EV trucks but sell very few because they have for years built the image of the pickup into one that really cannot be evolved.

My guess is that a lot of buyers will hang onto the iconic pickup for quite a few years. Prices will go up while EV prices will go down. Maybe Detroit will survive by splitting the business with EV done online and ICE done through dealers. That might work.

Great analogy on the motorcycles and trucks and the "functional fixedness" of consumers like me.

I'm uncertain, however, that the pickup we have today can't be evolved. If Rivian can live up to their promises, they'll have 400 miles of range and big towing capacity (notice the size of the "if"), and they'll have it in the traditional shape of a pickup. I'm willing to pay a lot of money for that.

I don't believe for a second that Tesla can't 1) do the same thing except better/more range and 2) beat Rivian to market.

In my opinion, the downside of the CyberPunkTruck/Halo Vanity Project is that it delays entry and first mover status into a lucrative market.

I've got a feeling, however, that we are all gonna be either dead broke or so wealthy that price isn't an object by the time there's an electric truck available for delivery from anyone. We'll feast or perish based on S3XY, not trucks.

 

[EVNow]

I’ve just determined the primary function of the Model Y 3rd row seats- as it is exactly the same as the back seat in my former Boss Mustang:

selling the car to your significant other.

(This important factor has existed in the car biz for decades, and apparently will well into the future....)

And actually be able to use one car instead two - even if rarely.

 

[sundaymorning]

By "no demand" you mean not 350k (i.e. 30k per month) worth of demand per year in the US ?

EM says the demand is about 500k worldwide. So you can just go by that and even if half of that is US, we are looking at 250k.

Are you really saying there is consistent demand for 350k Model 3s in US per year ?

ps : 2018 entire small/mid luxury car sales in US was 388k.

Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America – December 2018 | GCBC

388k was “year to date.” Which means it’s the first 2.5 months of 2019, which also happens to be the slowest quarter of the entire year for any manufacture. Demand in the US for this segment is likely 1-2 million? Maybe @RobStark can comment..

With Tesla owning 30-40% of that 1-2 million, you’re looking at 300-800k, take the middle number and it’s around 500-550k.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

As long as it looks like a pickup and not a spaceship.

Hey, space aliens need to haul lumber from time to time too, right? lol!

Dan