Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

Stacking Tesla’s Model Y Against Its Electric SUV Competition

This contains a decent sortable comparison table to the CUV competition.

A comparison based purely on the capabilities of the vehicles themselves shows the Hyundai Kona and Kia Nero to be credible competition for the Model Y SR.

Kona 258 miles 6.6 seconds $36.5k
Nero 236 miles 7.8 seconds $40k
Model Y 230 miles 5.9 seconds $39k

The Hyundai/Kia offer less performance but greater range and are incrementally cheaper.

At the higher end only the Volvo Polestar 2 appears to be even remotely competitive:

Model Y LR 300 miles 5.5 seconds $47k
Model Y AWD 280 miles 4.8 seconds $51k
Pole Star 2 275 miles 4.7 seconds $55k
Model Y P 280 miles 3.5 seconds $60k
I Pace 240 miles 4.5 seconds $69.5k
E-tron 248 miles 5.5 seconds $69.5k
Mission E CT 310 miles 5.5 seconds $74k
EQC 279 miles 4.9 seconds $79.5K

.

You have to be careful to compare equivalent range standards here, your E-tron and EQC numbers are too high.

E-tron is 248 miles WLTP which i think would be closer to 200 miles EPA.
I-Pace is 234 miles EPA range vs 292 WLTP and 336 miles NEDC
EQC is 280 miles NEDC, which is likely c.195 miles EPA.
Pole Star 2 is 310 miles NEDC and 275 miles EPA

 

[T@oo]

I wish. Same team, but no.

For Germany: e-Leaf (64 kwh) has an European contigent of 5000 cars ( says so on Nissan website). Niro EV? You get to wait >12 month if your order now. Even those who did order already *might* get it this year. Sad but true. Kona? Small car even for european standard. Call it micro CUV. Not compareable.

 

[EVNow]

Microsoft's Parts and Service Departments are abysmal too??
Thank you for that, and good to know!

I will scratch MSFT off my investment list then, as well...

If only you knew how the sausage is made …. or have better memory.

Microsoft Surface reliability problem: Hardware, software and service

You’ve undoubtedly seen the news, first reported by Reuters, that Consumer Reports doesn’t like the Microsoft Surface line, removing the “Recommended” mark from all of its Surface machines. But the manifest hardware, firmware and driver problems are only a small part of the problem. What sticks in my craw, time after time, is Microsoft’s unwillingness to acknowledge problems or help customers when it’s clear their product is at fault.

The west coast tech companies operate differently from the 1,000 year old east coast companies people are used to. High growth companies (or for that matter high growth parts of the company !) are always chaotic and things change constantly and are in a flux. We used to have a joke - when someone asks you "how are you" you'd say "Great. My badge worked today !" (meaning you have not been laid off).

All that means is ... it is a high growth period. There will be consolidation, layoffs because of efficiencies or realizing the wasteful expenses etc. etc.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Pleats were never an option.

Bleats was never an option

 

[Smokey4141]

If only you knew how the sausage is made …. or have better memory.

Microsoft Surface reliability problem: Hardware, software and service



The west coast tech companies operate differently from the 1,000 year old east coast companies people are used to. High growth companies (or for that matter high growth parts of the company !) are always chaotic and things change constantly and are in a flux. We used to have a joke - when someone asks you "how are you" you'd say "Great. My badge worked today !" (meaning you have not been laid off).

All that means is ... it is a high growth period. There will be consolidation, layoffs because of efficiencies or realizing the wasteful expenses etc. etc.

That is a fair response, and I appreciate it...

I'm not convinced yet that Tesla IS a tech company, and not just a car company, and that probably accounts for the majority of our differences in how we look at it... And as long as growth continues, it should work out for you... Trade safe... Thanks again..

 

[RobStark]

It's not going to look like that... or even close.

It's going to be aero. That's not aero.

And its going to be 10% bigger in every dimension?

 

[SpeedGoat]

Kona and NIro are worthy Medel 3/Model Y competitors, per you definition, only starting around 2020 or later? As I understand, no one is able to order an EV Kona/Niro as of now besides the few in California

Yes, this obviously assumes they are available in some kind of real volume by the time the Model Y arrives.

Not everyone is all that concerned with the interior volume of a CUV. Most of these vehicles are used as standard commuter cars by people who just want to sit a few inches higher. They are basically the modern substitute for most mid-sized hatchbacks.

 

[EVNow]

Visually it's compelling for that region, but in terms of the number of chargers, not so much. Those "wrench" icons? Those don't exist yet; they're akin to the greyed out "planned" stations on the Tesla map (It's IMHO weird how Plugshare includes planned CCS/CHAdeMO chargers in Canada but not planned Superchargers). Most of the other ones (try clicking on them) are just one or two chargers per location. The Supercharger stations in the area are generally 8-10 stalls each. Which is for a reason - if you plan on charging at some location, you don't want a single outage or blockage to leave you screwed over.

(No need to rehash the charge rate or reliability differences on top of this!)

Regardless, Tesla's move into Canada is only getting started. Again, we know that everyone does this whole "No, they're never coming here!" thing right up until the point that the chargers open, and then funnily enough you never hear from them again.

Cars are not owned for a matter of months. They're owned for years. Making decisions on what's present only at the time of purchase is akin to purchasing a gas guzzler because gas prices are low when you happen to buy it.

I think this is the wrong way to look at it. The 8 to 10 stalls aren't useful if they are 200 miles away - compared to that one working chademo near by.

With CHAdeMO adapters Tesla can use both SC & the more geographically scattered chademo.

 

[glen thomson]

222,222 lol

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does that mean SR and SR + share the same battery pack and that SR is software limited?

No. Same pack design for SR and SR+, fewer cells in the SR.

Remember, the MR had a depopulated LR pack.

Tesla is NOT going to decrease margin by giving away free bty cells.

 

[jbcarioca]

[

Then you clearly don't get it. Tesla is expanding, in all directions. But because they haven't hit your location yet, you just assume "they're not coming here". Which is nonsense. Yet it's the same nonsense we see here time and time again, people coming and whining about Tesla not being in their location, and how they're never going to come... and then six months later, Tesla opens charging stations there, and we never hear from them again.

This isn't my first rodeo with people like you coming here and making arguments precisely like the one you're making now.

This is a rare time when I must disagree in tone, if not in fact. When we are discussing Canada, BC specifically in this case, the rapidly building CHAdeMO/CCS network is more prevalent than Superchargers and growing even faster thanks for HydroBC in BC and HydroQuebec and others elsewhere. Of course there is also a pretty decent array of NEMA 10-50/J1772 connections in public parks/RV parks and other places. frankly, one can go nearly anywhere in Canada if one is willing to accept lots of L2 and serious hypermiling in places. Even so, to be truly practical for daily use for people who travel widely in Canada, neither Tesla nor CHAdeMO/CCS are really there yet. In well-traveled places, no problems except in the Prairies. But, today is simply not adequately covered by Superchargers.

As for a Leaf doing much better, that is patently ridiculous, especially in winter. Assertions to the contrary, here are the relevant data links:
Finding electric vehicle charging stations
Reviewing Tesla Supercharger plans it is evident that by 2020 or so, pretty much everywhere in Southern BC will be well covered with CHAdeMO/CCS and Superchargers but neither is likely to cover most of the North. OTOH there aren't tons of gasoline pumps all over either. Frankly, until BEV's can handle ~500 km range in winter conditions ICE will remain the only practical choice. There is hardly a significant population of humans anywhere in those areas. Despite teh HydroBC rapid buildup they are not about to deeply cover areas populated mostly by bears and caribou.

 

[jerry33]

I think this is the wrong way to look at it. The 8 to 10 stalls aren't useful if they are 200 miles away - compared to that one working chademo near by.

With CHAdeMO adapters Tesla can use both SC & the more geographically scattered chademo.

While true, when I purchased my S, there were zero SCs or CHAdeMO within 1,500 or more miles, and there were only three SCs in existence. That didn't stop us from going on trips, charging just took longer but could be planned so that most charging time was during sleeping hours. If SCs were to stop working today (don't have a CHAdeMO adaptor as I've never seen the need for one), it wouldn't be all that hard to go on trips. ( Kids today! )

 

[Webeevdrivers]

View attachment 387455
222,222 lol

It’ll be one of those “GTFO” moments for whoever gets that serial number.

 

[EVNow]

I'm not convinced yet that Tesla IS a tech company, and not just a car company, and that probably accounts for the majority of our differences in how we look at it... And as long as growth continues, it should work out for you... Trade safe... Thanks again..

"tech company" itself is a weird designation. If you search on the web you will see a lot of criticism of that way of classifying a company anyway. What is the commonality between Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix and Facebook ? Yet - people easily move among these companies and their skills are transferable. What all these companies have in common is - they take a problem and solve it using newer high tech means - whether it is retail, making a music player/phone, watching movies or .connecting with your friends/relatives.

Same way Tesla has taken up the automobile/energy issues using newer high tech means to solve the problems. So, it is a tech company in the automobile / energy industries - just as Amazon is a tech company in the retail sector.

 

[jerry33]

There is hardly a significant population of humans anywhere in those areas. Despite teh HydroBC rapid buildup they are not about to deeply cover areas populated mostly by bears and caribou.

*Sugar*, the bears are slowing us up again.

 

[capster]

We've been talking aesthetics and potential demand for the pickup and I've got another data point that we can possibly generalize. I saw this on Reddit and my wife's reaction was: "Not only am I not getting in that thing, but we aren't parking it in the driveway either." Even though my future electric pickup would be mine, it also doubles as a family vehicle. My wife isn't getting out of this and walking into church, despite how badass I think it looks.

She said it'd be great for when I joined up with some weirdo militia and I was like...

Well, it is true that Mercedes-Benz did develop a single blade wiper system for their cars at considerable expense and the market soundly rejected it. The wiper on that vehicle is also exposed and highly unaerodynamic which is a no-no in an EV.

So, your wife’s concerns about being embarrassed walking up to church are probably legit.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Why would you compare pricing of a new Y with a 2 year old Rogue? Makes no sense. Wait until there are 2 year old Ys.

Are there electric Rogues? I had a Rogue rental in December. What POS drivetrain.

 

[EVNow]

Not everyone is all that concerned with the interior volume of a CUV. Most of these vehicles are used as standard commuter cars by people who just want to sit a few inches higher. They are basically the modern substitute for most mid-sized hatchbacks.

Hmmm … not so fast.

Most suburban dwellers have a "sedan" and a "suv". The sedan is for commute and suv is for longer trips or hauling kids around. Ofcourse that SUV can be a mini-van or various kinds of SUV/CUV. While some people may give up the sedan in favor of a hatch or a micro-suv like Bolt / Kia Soul - they won't mistake that for their family's larger car. So the interior volume of the said CUV/SUV is important to some extent and really small upright cars like Bolt of Fit or i3 are not real substitutes.

 

[capster]

If it indeed has a 200 kWh battery does it need to be aerodynamic?

Yes

 

[VValleyEV]

The Rivian pricing seems way overly optimistic given the very large battery pack sizes and that they will need to buy batteries on the open market in relatively low volumes. If these trucks make it to production they will cost a lot more than currently planned.

I am suspicious also, BUT I am also hoping they come through on that pricing/performance, because that will mean that Tesla can do as well or better, and that will help blow a hole in the ICE/Pickup market for EVs. Especially with upcoming battery efficiencies, perhaps from the infusion of Maxwell IP.