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At this point guys, I don't think there's much to be done about the share price. Lots of great and very important news for the company(35k model 3, moving orders to online, model y reveal, V3 supercharging, Giga 3 building completed in May, etc...) and no effect. In fact it's become very, very apparent(to me at least) over the past year that Wall St is working together to cap the share price and drive the share price down. Could be that they want to maximize how much money they can make by driving the stocks to the extreme of the trading ranges or what I personally believe, they're being paid through the backdoor by the multiple trillion dollar industries Tesla will be disrupting in the next 5 to 10 years. I don't believe for a second that Wall St has been selling on such high volume based on FUD concerns. I don't think anyone on Wall St actually believes the FUD, they just use it to maximize downward pressure on the share price.....but in the end they were going to drive the stock lower regardless of FUD or not.

Wouldn't be surprised if we're still capped at 300/share by Q3 or Q4 of this year, despite the annual revenue run rate being at or close to 30/billion. It's not going to be hard for them at this point with macros near all time highs and likely to retreat or not increase much from their current levels for the rest of the year. I never thought I would have the opportunity, but if the stock says in this area until Sept, I'll be able to increase my share count by a third or more. So that's something to be excited about lol.

When I talk about Wall St collaboration and manipulation, I've invested in large, medium, and small cap stocks. Over the past year, the stock's behavior on trading days(MMD, inverting macro rally's, morning spikes up only to be slowly lowered on very low volume through the day, the type of coordinated FUD with massive volume spikes as well as massive volume spikes on any news, even good news, etc..., reeks of the stuff you see happening in small cap stocks. I really don't know now how big Tesla has to get to break this but I'm sure glad I have a 5-10 years horizon for owning my shares. ;)
China could declare that Tesla is the official EV car of China and ban all other cars. After a brief uptick, the SP would still drop.


I'd prefer to get this to fail by putting the dealers out of business and the legislators legislate based on doing the right thing. Replacing graft with even more graft just seems sleazy and so un-Tesla like.
Feeding from the trough is the one thing that politicians (all party affiliations) are extremely good at.
 
Any theories on the possibly sudden turnabout in Forbes coverage, which what looks like a very fair and FUD-free review of the MY and its upcoming competition? Maybe they have always been fair to Tesla and EVs, not completely sure.
Weekend staff manning the Newsdesk? Plus anti-vax'ers kidz sick at home? Plus all the oxygen sucked out of earth's atmosphere wasted in tesla tires? ;)

It's hard to tell. Withhold judgement until the regular suspects start posting articles again.

Cheers!
 
But this is "deliveries"... Implies just need to deliver already sold cars to customers...
Even if that IS the case, odd that you need people to volunteer... Are they not being paid?
30k sales of $40k-$110k cars, and we can't pay people?? That sound right to you?

Volunteer for overtime/ spend more evenings and weekends at work...

We were so slow we were closing stores two weeks ago, and now we have 30K cars to deliver??
Again, what of ~any~ of this makes any sense to you?

Not all stores/ galleries delivery cars. Many are delivered at ... ready for this... delivery centers.
(really, would Tesla close the places that deliver the cars??? Think!)
 
this is my take. The front looks like the semi. But the leaked picture we saw is from the back.
View attachment 387655
I hope they make something like that...and maybe a clear one too like their boring van. (cld add tint)
vWrri6C.png
 
Unless I am the one misremembering here, it's about six months since SEC began to grumble at Elon for his tweets, and the settlement was -- again, IIRC -- in December. 11?

But we can wait another day to see what SEC has to say for itself in response to Team Elon's "smackdown"?

Two years from agreement to the court proposed settlement - a settlement without further recourse.

My point being that two years would and should fly by sans further distractions of the sort - two years during which one person holds the power to decide Elon Musk's fate as CEO of Tesla. As I've said just a few months ago, only judge Alison Nathan's opinion matters.

I wish I could be as sanguine as others on this board, which should not be construed as an informed case of the heebie geebies [angst].

I consulted the source, my memory was incorrect:
" and agree not to reappoint Elon Musk to Chairman for a minimum of three years and unless such reappointment is approved by a majority vote of shareholders at such time. "
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4951969/SEC-vs-Tesla-Settlement.pdf

The settlement itself has no expiry date. Quote:
"Defendant is permanently restrained and enjoined from violating, directly or indirectly, Rule 13a-15 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”)"

Said defendant can assume the position of Janitor in Mischief at any time, with all tangible and assumed powers vested therein as per his own communication.
 
No, missed the party... Dang it!!
But if was a "promotion", that implies to drum up sales, with the huge inflatable floppy tube-guy on the lot too...
Makes sense, make a party of it...

But this is "deliveries"... Implies just need to deliver already sold cars to customers...
Even if that IS the case, odd that you need people to volunteer... Are they not being paid?
30k sales of $40k-$110k cars, and we can't pay people?? That sound right to you?

We were so slow we were closing stores two weeks ago, and now we have 30K cars to deliver??
Again, what of ~any~ of this makes any sense to you?
This makes complete sense to me !

BTW, we had official events sponsored by local Nissan dealers to help with educating (/selling !) Leafs a few years back. When you are going through a profound change - don't expect everything else to remain the same. Embrace the change !

BTW, the Volt dance was at the LA auto show !

Chevy Volt Dance: Worst. Automotive Marketing. Ever.

GM's Chevy Volt Dancers Make Fox News, Become Full-Fledged PR Nightmare

ps : If you are looking for business as usual - and no "drama" - TSLA isn't the right stock. Stick to Berkshire or P&G.
 
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Even if that IS the case, odd that you need people to volunteer... Are they not being paid?
30k sales of $40k-$110k cars, and we can't pay people?? That sound right to you?

We were so slow we were closing stores two weeks ago, and now we have 30K cars to deliver??
Again, what of ~any~ of this makes any sense to you?

"Volunteer" within a company typically means they're voluntarily taking on responsibilities in a section they don't usually work in, not that they're unpaid. I've had time periods where "volunteers" were requested in that capacity at every company I've worked for since graduating college.

Your claim about closing stores is assuming the most bearish of assumptions is correct and then trying to square that with what the company is now saying. If the conclusion doesn't make sense, that implies (at least) one of those is incorrect.
 
Two years from agreement to the court proposed settlement - a settlement without further recourse.

My point being that two years would and should fly by sans further distractions of the sort - two years during which one person holds the power to decide Elon Musk's fate as CEO of Tesla. As I've said just a few months ago, only judge Alison Nathan's opinion matters.

I wish I could be as sanguine as others on this board, which should not be construed as an informed case of the heebie geebies [angst].

I consulted the source, my memory was incorrect:
" and agree not to reappoint Elon Musk to Chairman for a minimum of three years and unless such reappointment is approved by a majority vote of shareholders at such time. "
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4951969/SEC-vs-Tesla-Settlement.pdf

The settlement itself has no expiry date. Quote:
"Defendant is permanently restrained and enjoined from violating, directly or indirectly, Rule 13a-15 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”)"

Said defendant can assume the position of Janitor in Mischief at any time, with all tangible and assumed powers vested therein as per his own communication.
Aha, it seems I misinterpreted what you meant by the two years. Please disregard.
 
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Another way to approach this: it seems very reasonable that 30k NA and 40k international M3s also. Would not be surprised of NA was actually 40k, maybe international less??

Alpha Hat's U.S. only estimate was 30k+ deliveries (S+3+X):


If you look at their historic track record then Q1 2018 wasn't particularly intense - end of quarter was stronger, but not outstandingly so. Definitely not Q3/Q4 levels of push in the final two weeks.

This makes me believe that Alpha Hat's 30k figure is conservative, and that we might be looking at 40k+ U.S. deliveries instead.

Note that Tesla's Canadian Q1 performance is very strong as well so far:


4,700 Teslas in January and February alone. Plus Mexico deluveries opened up too.

So North America alone might be 45,000+ deliveries as a baseline, with possible upsides.

Wondering what @KarenRei and @ReflexFunds thinks the European and Chinese numbers might look like?
 
There were multiple bills, one in the Senate, one in the House, each with its own sponsors. The House bill was DOA from the start, never got a single committee hearing. The Senate bill, which was heard early on in a Senate committee which Tesla owners showed up in force at and which we testified at, won 4-3 on party lines.

But the next Senate committee scheduled to hear the bill never had the votes, and so it was not brought before the committee just to avoid a bloodbath and media fiasco (and opportunity for the dealers to gloat). And then things went into closed-doors mode for weeks. Tesla tried to get support from the Governor but she, who just got elected this past November, was too focused on the optics of lots of legislative wins and probably was not confident a Tesla bill would win, so she didn't want that on her record--is my educated guess.

In New Mexico it turns out the auto dealer thing is not a Dem vs Rep situation. It is not partisan. You are either owned by the dealers or you are not. If you're owned, they make it difficult for you to, er, shall we say, do anything that would disappoint them. Most elected officials are somehow beholden to the dealers, it seems. Campaign contributions, votes, support during elections, etc. Often the dealership is the biggest employer in some of the towns in an elected official's district. You don't cross the big guns, and dealers are usually big guns. And they have been at this for many decades.

I think the current Texas fight will come here to NM. This is a fight to the end. Or it will wind up in the courts, and that could delay an outcome for years. The dealers know exactly what they're doing.

Finally the other problem in New Mexico is the chicken-and-egg problem. Prospective, aspirational Tesla buyers often wanna buy a new 3 here, or some other Tesla, but then get scared off by the lack of service centers and stores. So that has held back sales here. We have maybe 700-800 owners in the state. At the current uptake rate of 3 sales we will probably pass 1000 owners statewide in a few months. But to a politician, in a state of 2.x million citizens, a constituency of 1000 anything is a tiny speck, so tiny as to not make any noise, and not to cause any problem. The dealers have been downplaying the number of Tesla owners here too, making it sound like we're a spoiled, entitled little niche group of whiners who can well afford to have service in CO or AZ. Politicians unfamiliar with the issue (almost all politicians) hear that and go, huh, minor issue, I don't need to stick my neck out for Tesla, NEXT?

Just the other day I was talking to a well-known Tesla bull investor who runs a mid-sized fund, and he was telling me look, if you want New Mexico to win, you owners gotta form a PAC, raise $2-3 million, and go to town, advertising and protesting and rallying like hell and getting the word out about how bad the dealers are. I'm like, sure, you wanna gimme the $2-3 mil?

Sounds to me like the best way to proceed is to try to make life difficult for anyone in the legislature standing against you. Approach anyone who would be running against them with the idea for attack ads decrying Republicans as communist for their support of a ban on American-made products(even without mentioning exactly what products they're talking about). And for Democrats, a mix of that and supporting fossil fuels over clean energy. Everyone has enemies; play their enemies against them.
 
We also know that VIN registrations this quarter have been monstrous. That said, we need to assume a higher unused VIN ratio this quarter than in previous quarters due to the greater variety of VINs....
They also needed to register extra VINs because they usually start a quarter with 4-6 weeks worth of VINs available, but started 2019 with almost zero.
 
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Not a different pack, its the LR pack but with fewer cells. Enough fewer to allow them the lower price tag. And it was a stopgap before the SR (can't quote, but it was something like "we can do this now rather than February"). Color me shocked that the MR is no longer being sold...
Right, but it's fewer cells and not simply software limited LR pack with LR amount of kWH. The overall external size of the "pack" is probbaly the same, but with fewer cells, there is probably some space and also probably fewer (what do they call them, that hold the actual batteries together) and then fewer cable harnesses. Etc.
 
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It's more a function of how stories propagate these days. Someone writes an initial piece and either it gets syndicated through other channels (often automated) or other folks write derivative pieces off the original. Look how many stories are typically spawned from a single Electrek. The net result is that the same story appears to show up in multiple places at about the same time.

Look at it from the writer's PoV. Every morning they start with a blank screen and they need to fill it with something click-worthy that will pull in readers. Like everyone else, they are sorta lazy and will take the path of least resistance. I good PR team will feed them raw materials that they turn into stories because they recognize if writers don't get something from the PR team, they'll go looking somewhere else.
Yep.

Every time this media stuff comes up I point to how the modern media works but many are inclined to just believe conspiracy theories.

- Most press goes by "Conventional Wisdom". Reporters who follow CW don't get canned because of one bad piece of report they write.
- There are only some "opinion leaders". Rest are followers - not sure who the real opinion leaders on Tesla are. Perhaps some influential analysts or big shorts. The cycle of "hype, drag down, redemption" are initiated and maintained by these leaders.
- Sometimes it takes obvious facts to refute opinion leaders and change their tune. This is what Tesla will have to do (since they don't have the PR team to chase opinion leaders and get them on board and perhaps EM is opposed to that) - have few quarters of profits and strengthening balance sheet that can't be spun any other way.
- Ads. Its actually not all ads, but one of the things a PR team can deploy. Even if a company advertises, unless the PR team subtly hints at either reducing or increasing the ads - it won't influence the editors correctly. If a bad report comes on a media - someone from the PR team needs to get on the phone and scream at the reporter/editor for a few hours. This is what they do - not just companies, but political campaigns as well. Next time that media outlet will be more careful. Things don't magically happen.
 
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They also needed to register extra VINs because they usually start a quarter with 4-6 weeks worth of VINs available, but started 2019 with almost zero.

At least the Bloomberg tracker is showing 2018 VINs reused in 2019 production:

See the "Tesla spotted VINs" graph, it has low VIN dots in the 2019 interval as well.

Is the Bloomberg tracker's visualization, or my interpretation of that, wrong?
 
Tesla continuing to register more Model 3 Vins…..3,981 more today

This should be useful for some good data mining on VIN assignment to Production date:

Model 3 VINsMar 6
#Tesla registered 6,747 new #Model3 VINs. ~32% estimated to be dual motor. ~56% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 323380.

Ship watchers, please remind me when the last shipload of Tesla vehicles departed San Francisco? Seems they must have built about 3,478 Model 3's between those two dates. So this might tell us something about production rates as well.

Cheers!