Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DaveT]

As much as I am happy for the SP rebound, there is no peace of mind until we reach $300. Anything under $300 seems like a victory for FUDsters

What rebound?

 

[Pras]

April 4th at 2:00? Is the judge a joker?

I bet someone will remind Elon. Hope he doesn’t joke about it.

 

[S3XY]

April 4th at 2:00? Is the judge a joker?

Actually 8:00 PM would've been better.

 

[MP3Mike]

But the best is yet to come: we are talking LR and P.

So far it has been ~13% Ps...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So far it has been ~13% Ps...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Euro is only AWD and P

 

[MP3Mike]

GA in China should start coming online in early summer. But all parts will be imported, including prepainted bodywork. If that's all done at Fremont with a fixed 7k/wk paint capacity, this would mean idling some Fremont GA capacity, and thus layoffs and higher depreciation - something Tesla surely wishes to avoid. Or perhaps M3 production remains high, but S and X are severely curtailed - also not great without some strategy behind it.

From the Q4 letter:

In the initial phase of Gigafactory Shanghai, we expect to have stamping, paint shop, body joining, and general assembly shops in operation by the end of 2019.

So they are doing almost everything there this year. (No mention of motors, seats, cells, packs, plastics, etc.)
​

There is no way they are shipping pre-painted body panels, because you can't paint them until you assemble them into the body. So that would mean that they were using the whole body-in-white and paint shop portion of Fremont. At that point you just send it through GA and you're done. No point in sending an assembled and painted body to China for GA.

I can see that Tesla might send stamped parts to China to go through a body-in-white and paint shop before they get a press line installed. (Shipping stamped parts takes way less space than shipping bodies.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Euro is only AWD and P

That would be correct. So ~87% AWD ~13% Performance.

 

[Carl Raymond]

As much as I am happy for the SP rebound, there is no peace of mind until we reach $300. Anything under $300 seems like a victory for FUDsters

Do not be happy at $300. At $600, okay, be happy.

 

[Unpilot]

I bet someone will remind Elon. Hope he doesn’t joke about it.

Man I am slow...but yeah that is a good one

 

[ReflexFunds]

Something to think about:

--- Where is Tesla going to get more paint shop capacity mid summer to early fall --- ?

GA in China should start coming online in early summer. But all parts will be imported, including prepainted bodywork. If that's all done at Fremont with a fixed 7k/wk paint capacity, this would mean idling some Fremont GA capacity, and thus layoffs and higher depreciation - something Tesla surely wishes to avoid. Or perhaps M3 production remains high, but S and X are severely curtailed - also not great without some strategy behind it.

Seems to me there's a 3-6 month "paint shop gap" that Tesla is surely going to want to fill.

I wonder if Tesla is already working on securing more capacity... somewhere... to fill in that gap.

Should only be a problem with paint. Understanding is that body, stamping, etc can readily scale higher at Fremont, and GF1 can (and is) scaling as needed for packs and drive units.

Tesla is targeting Body, Paint & Assembly at GF3 in September. Presumably if they hit their May target for external construction then this equipment will all start to be installed at GF3 in June/July.

 

[EVNow]

Damn! Can we import some politicians from Europe and export some Republicans before all of our Teslas go overseas?

I thought this whole mess started when we imported Farage & Gorka

 

[Solar Aussie]

Before this, the best month for Norway was Dec 17, with 2461.
March 2019 will easily double that.
Today we've seen 578 Tesla delivered in one day: if tomorrow is similar it will be the same as the whole month of February... which was a very good month!
The growth we're seeing is unprecedented: do you know any other brand who grew so much YoY? Any other car model that sold so much in the first 6 weeks?

But the best is yet to come: we are talking LR and P.
I'd love to know if we can project the market of SR and SR+, in Norway.
I think that will easiliy be the most sold car of the history of Scandinavia, and the final nail in the coffin for Audi/Mercedes/BMW, at least.
No demand my ass.

Then look at the pathetic article by Anton Wahlman in Seeking Alpha where he was forecasting the demise of Tesla (surprised!!) in Norway because of a decline at the end of the year.... No actually .... wrong Norwegians were waiting for Model 3 and the sales since Model 3 arrived have been stunning much to the disappointment of many of those Shorts writers who flood financial blogs.. Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My new response to those that insist that Tesla has a demand problem...

 

[TNEVol]

Judge Nathan just ordered oral hearing for April 4:

#36 in United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (S.D.N.Y., 1:18-cv-08865) – CourtListener.com

ALISON J. NATHAN, District Judge:

Both parties have indicated that an evidentiary hearing is not required on Plaintiff’s
Motion for Order to Show Cause. Dkt. Nos. 34_35.

Accordingly, the Court Will decide Plaintiff's motion
Without an evidentiary hearing.

The Court Will, however, hold oral argument,

Which is hereby Seheduled for April 4, 2019 at 2:00 p.m.

SO ORDERED.​

This is (IMHO) good news: Judge Nathan didn't see the SEC's case such a slam-dunk to immediately hold Elon in contempt.

This IMHO almost necessarily means that if to a judge it isn't obvious, how could Elon be held in contempt for clearly and obviously violating the settlement?

She also ordered "oral argument", which I believe means Elon will not have to be there.

Note another detail: if she wanted to decide on a technicality, she could have done so without a hearing. Oral arguments, to me, suggest that she is considering the constitutional arguments - which were certainly presented powerfully by Elon's team.

Bingo. What I expected. This is oral argument where the lawyers get to argue the facts and the law. There will be no testimony but there may be questions from the judge for the lawyers. This is like miniature appeals court argument.

 

[TNEVol]

Federal judges are ruling against the government all the time.



That's not what contempt motions are about: the SEC has moved for Elon Musk to be held in contempt and face sanctions. The judge will decide whether to grant or deny the motion. This isn't going to be a settlement negotiation round but oral arguments.

The SEC (and Elon) will win or lose the motion.

I would like to be a fly on the wall I. That courtroom. There will be lightning and thunder from the lawyers and the judge's comments and questions will be interesting. I hope a positive media rep will be there or CNBC will quote all of the SECs argument with no rebuttal.

 

[Krugerrand]

I can see that Tesla might send stamped parts to China to go through a body-in-white and paint shop before they get a press line installed. (Shipping stamped parts takes way less space than shipping bodies.)

Nope. Have you ever seen racking for class A body panels? You can’t ‘stack’ body panels on themselves, you’d ruin the surface.

Then you’d have to make crating. Ever had to do crating for International across the ocean? The parts would have to be sealed, crates made, then those crates sealed. Um...no.

Send finished cars or nothing at all.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Then look at the pathetic article by Anton Wahlman in Seeking Alpha where he was forecasting the demise of Tesla (surprised!!) in Norway because of a decline at the end of the year.... No actually .... wrong Norwegians were waiting for Model 3 and the sales since Model 3 arrived have been stunning much to the disappointment of many of those Shorts writers who flood financial blogs.. Tesla Down 40% In Norway's Q4, 63% Of Which Explained By Jaguar - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

You mean Anton Wrongman? Yeah, he always gets it, how shall I say... WRONG.

 

[EVNow]

Nope. Have you ever seen racking for class A body panels? You can’t ‘stack’ body panels on themselves, you’d ruin the surface.

Then you’d have to make crating. Ever had to do crating for International across the ocean? The parts would have to be sealed, crates made, then those crates sealed. Um...no.

Send finished cars or nothing at all.

Its not unusual to send parts (Completely Knocked-Down or CKD kits) to be assembled in another country. BMW and others do it in India.

2018 BMW X3 assembly commences in India

Knock-down kit - Wikipedia

 

[EVNow]

There is no way judge would publicly rule against SEC as they are the government.

Hmmm …....

The Trump administration has lost in court at least 63 times. Here’s why.

The Trump administration has lost more than 90 percent of its court battles over deregulation

 

[EVNow]

The Court Will, however, hold oral argument,

Which is hereby Seheduled for April 4, 2019 at 2:00 p.m.

Wow - April 4th will be a wild day.

I'm guessing people will be live tweeting (is that allowed in courts - probably at the discretion of the judge ?). Every tweet will send the SP up or down 5%. Hope she has a complete communication clap down till the hearing is over.

I'd expect her to take a week or so to give a ruling. Any experts take on this ?