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most likely it is deliberate as in mid February when that vin list leaked online they were at like 11k+ cars

Makes sense then as supporting unpaid large inventory is not good. Better to match sales to demand than over produce.

The local Chevy dealer still has 15 bolts sitting on his lot. We wanted to take one for a drive last year and the salesman told us he could put our name on a list. He said they alloted a few a year and they were all spoken for until 2019. We’ll here we are. 15 on the lot as there now seems to be lots of inventory available. They haven’t sold one in a few weeks. Our sales guy was good enough to call us to let us know they had them so we went to see them. I asked him what kind of deal we could get on a white premium and he said the price was the price. I mentioned the base model 3 was about the same and his only defense was that “yah, but Tesla will be gone in a year so who are you going to see for service”. We thanked him for his time. We may eventually not be buying a Tesla but strictly for charging compatibility reasons. Probably a Leaf E-Plus. But we have driven them all and the Tesla model 3 trumps them all. I have confidence that there are enough people that will see that and Tesla will ok.
 
What happened to the 30,000 in the last three weeks story? Basically BS.

March 22...
Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk on Thursday sent an all-hands email telling employees it was their “primary priority” to help deliver tens of thousands of cars to customers before the end of the month, Business Insider reports.
Well they basically explained it on the delivery report by saying they had only delivered half the cars for the quarter by March 21st.
 
Also, giving guidance for Q2 would have been much more reassuring than just reiterating 2019 guidance.

I actually suspect they have literally no idea at this point what Q2 will look like so all bets are off.
I was hoping for the price to tiptoe past $300 on not terrible news so I could start divesting my stake but looks like I'm going to be f**ked again.
 
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What happened to the 30,000 in the last three weeks story? Basically BS.

March 22...
Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk on Thursday sent an all-hands email telling employees it was their “primary priority” to help deliver tens of thousands of cars to customers before the end of the month, Business Insider reports.

Ended up being a lowball estimate, apparently. The letter says they delivered half in the last few weeks.
 
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What happened to the 30,000 in the last three weeks story? Basically BS.

March 22...
Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk on Thursday sent an all-hands email telling employees it was their “primary priority” to help deliver tens of thousands of cars to customers before the end of the month, Business Insider reports.

Ummm...
From the letter:
Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter.
Half of 63,000 is... 30k...
 
2020 can't get here soon enough......there would have to be a S/X refresh by then(right?? right?? lol), Model Y production starting in 2nd half, Roadster and Semi starting production, TE should be ramped by then.

At this point, I'm so sick and tired of hearing about the Model 3 (when it comes to FUD/demand/etc...)
 
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I'm not sure what the problem is if the cars aren't delivered but otherwise sold. Won't it just push the numbers into next quarter? I can see delivery logistics being underwhelming when shipping in quantity overseas for the first time. I'd be much more worried if people weren't actually buying them in the first place. And I'm not surprised if sales were down a bit after the tax rebate cut and getting rid of lower priced S (&X?) I must be missing something.
 
Get away from the quarter numbers. Annual deliveries projected 360K-400K... let that sink in for a hot second.

One quarter does not dictate a business' future. Especially one that was able to pay off a 920M bond in cash.

For those questioning demand please note:
- Leasing isn't available for Model 3 yet
- Model 3 in the US is nowhere near as big of an opp. in Europe and China. Add onto that Australia later this year and UK
- There are still a ton of people who don't know what a Tesla is (or even seen one)-- shocker I know
- Autopilot/FSD is getting better everyday

Essentially Tesla took a big one time hit in scaling delivery globally. Logistical nightmare. Just imagine cleaning up while breaking stuff in a rush
 
I'm not sure what the problem is if the cars aren't delivered but otherwise sold. Won't it just push the numbers into next quarter? I can see delivery logistics being underwhelming when shipping in quantity overseas for the first time. I'd be much more worried if people weren't actually buying them in the first place. And I'm not surprised if sales were down a bit after the tax rebate cut and getting rid of lower priced S (&X?) I must be missing something.
the problem is people can't read and the media sensationalizes things
 
Get away from the quarter numbers. Annual deliveries projected 360K-400K... let that sink in for a hot second.

One quarter does not dictate a business' future. Especially one that was able to pay off a 920M bond in cash.

For those questioning demand please note:
- Leasing isn't available for Model 3 yet
- Model 3 in the US is nowhere near as big of an opp. in Europe and China. Add onto that Australia later this year and UK
- There are still a ton of people who don't know what a Tesla is (or even seen one)-- shocker I know
- Autopilot/FSD is getting better everyday

Essentially Tesla took a big one time hit in scaling delivery globally. Logistical nightmare. Just imagine cleaning up while breaking stuff in a rush
They have been continuously taking "one time hits" for years now. They need to either stop behaving like a startup in perpetuity or stop pretending they are a mature company already. It can't be both.
 
Why so much pessimism?
Back when Elon first started getting in trouble about tweeting that he’s going to take the company private at $420, so many here were asking about how to stay invested when it goes private because there’s no way they would sell even at those prices.

Nowadays it’s just swing trading, buying at $260’s and selling at $280’s. We’ve been stuck and likely will continue to be stuck in this muck for a while.

When you mix bias and emotions with investment is when you start getting into trouble.

My concern is Model 3 production was practically unchanged from last Q. Production should not be affected by lack of know-how in delivering the cars overseas for the first time. Are we at capacity in Fremont? I doubt it, so then why?
 
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Not to worry the man in charge isn't. Still time to noodle around on Twitter and other distractions.
Screenshot_20190403-215407_Twitter.jpg
 
They have been continuously taking "one time hits" for years now. They need to either stop behaving like a startup in perpetuity or stop pretending they are a mature company already. It can't be both.
Because no 'real' OEM ever has scaling or one time charges...
GM closed a plant in Gunsan last year and took a pretax charge of $942 million in the first quarter on '18 from restructuring at its South Korea operations. GM says the unit is positioned now to be profitable.
GM's global gamble to fund a big bet on the future

If you want Tesla to grow, it needs to expand which increases in transit overhead.
 
So linear projection of the current downward channel projected towards ~May 1st for Q1 ER. The highest SP should be about $274 and lowest should be about $250. $274 should be reached about mid April during the Autopilot showcase and we probably sit around $250 before ER since everyone will be expecting it to be ugly.

Good luck to all.
 
They have been continuously taking "one time hits" for years now. They need to either stop behaving like a startup in perpetuity or stop pretending they are a mature company already. It can't be both.
It seems to me that a mature company does not expand production and sales much yoy and add entirely new products and innovate to destroy competitors. This is not a mature company IMO. If it were I would be getting dividends rather than planning for my children and grandchildren's future.