Have to figure that if luv's model is correct we have a chance to breakdown out of this falling wedge. Ugly.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Have to figure that if luv's model is correct we have a chance to breakdown out of this falling wedge. Ugly.
bdy0627
Active Member
I want to look into previous earnings where we were trading near the bottom of the range going into an earnings report that was widely expected to be bad. I think I remember a couple times where we actually climbed after the ER.
luvb2b thinks margins were bad. I can't buy that argument, at all. 75D's death vastly improved S+X margins, and the price cuts didn't come close to offsetting this averaged across the quarter. Even when you add in higher depreciation-per vehicle due to the lower volume, I just can't buy that notion. M3's mix was far richer than in Q4 (over a third at least AWD, over half at least LR - plus whatever LR and AWD sold outside EU and China - vs. mostly MR in Q4). Again, this should be more than offsetting the reduced prices and lower overseas margins. Then you have another quarter of general margin improvements - and we saw how much Tesla improved margins quarter-over-quarter in '18 (or in Q4, sustained them despite moving to a significantly lower ASP). This affects S+X too - paint, for example, supposedly became much more efficient in late Q4. Raw material prices are down as well.
I just don't buy the low margin notion. But we'll see.
Don't get me wrong, I also expect a bad ER (like pretty much everyone, bull and bear). No rose-coloured glasses for me. I just don't expect the sort of numbers you get when you assume bad margins.
(I also suspect the market reaction will strongly be affected by what margins Tesla posts, because they'll affect their models for the rest of the year)
Last edited:
If Tesla pulls off FSD without MobileEye, then the split was worth it. Tesla can keep all those profits instead of sharing with MobileEye.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
His model was done before the Fiat news came out - ofcourse, we don't know if any of the revenue is in Q1. Amount of EAP/FSD revenue is one more big unknown. I'm looking at -2.24 EPS as the low number.
<not an advice>
In anycase, I'm sure the market and media will find plenty of ammunition in the Q1 ER to say Tesla is in trouble. So, I'm not going to buy any calls for this ER.
</not an advice>
In Norway Tesla was still delivering 75D models at the end of Q1. In fact they are still delivering them in Q2. There are also still a lot of 75Ds in stock in The Netherlands (registered in 2018 for fiscal reasons). I hope US sales were mostly 100D (LR) and '85D' (battery limited LR).
In California with NEM2, there is no longer a plus 10% limit. We are now able to install as much as we please.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Q4 '16. On ER (2/22) SP was at 274 (!). SP went to a low of 242 in 3 days.
ps : LOL - disagree on facts ?!
Edit : Q4 '16, not Q2 '16.
Last edited:
No agreement between Musk and SEC, but they are still talking. They are requesting an extension until April 25 to continue negotiating.
https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.42.0.pdf
https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.42.0.pdf
Have fun on 205... be glad you have a great sound system!On the return leg of a road trip from Seattle to SF Bay Area. I'm at the Supercharger at Grant's Pass, OR and on the way up from the Bay I counted no less than 4 car carriers loaded with mostly 3's but also a few S and X heading north. Looks like this quarter's North American deliveries are well underway.
Oh God, I'm going to arrive in Portland right into the teeth of their rush hour. Just kill me now.
If they were delivering 75Ds, then they were buying them at Q4 prices (or the first 13 days of Q1). So what's the problem? That would also imply that some 100Ds and P100Ds delivered then were also sold at Q4 prices.
Was expecting them to say they couldn't come to agreement. Still might not be able to, but this is slightly positive, if a bit annoying as an investor. Now we continue waiting...
Musk met with Modi? Confirmed that they'll enter India in 2019? Well, that's news, if this is accurate... Unsourced, just a picture:
नमो on Twitter
नमो on Twitter
Last edited:
My take as well. Mild positive. Both parties think that reaching a resolution on their own without requiring the court to rule is possible.
E.g. the SEC could have just done this negotiation earlier rather than dragging Elon into court and then getting told to negotiate by the judge. :Þ At least the reasonableness pants fit.
OT Sad news:
my Model S was hit in a parking lot today(other driver apparently drove off and didn’t leave a note or anything. Reeeeeally wish I had been one of the people who got the recent Sentry Mode version for AP2.0. There’s some cameras in the lot that may or may not have caught it.
my Model S was hit in a parking lot today(other driver apparently drove off and didn’t leave a note or anything. Reeeeeally wish I had been one of the people who got the recent Sentry Mode version for AP2.0. There’s some cameras in the lot that may or may not have caught it.
Question for LEAP option experts.... I bought a lot of LEAPS last December with Jan 2020 exp., 250SP. They are currently down 57%. If the stock quickly recovers to 350, I'll be ok. But if it doesn't, when is the best time to roll them to 2021 before time decay starts to really get me? Also do "wash sales" rules apply to rolling options?
bdy0627
Active Member
I disagree. Yes, Elon has hyped this event over the last couple of weeks, but Tesla has been working pretty quietly for several years now on FSD. There has been hardly a peep about where they are with the tech until now. I think it's a good idea to keep expectations in check, but I also think this event will show some impressive progress.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
