Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

TSLA up 0.75% today at 273.26 vs Nasdaq up 0.02%.

 

[pnungesser]

+1..I've been using Teslafi for 3 years now and have compiled a great data set of the locations I most commonly travel to.

I can analyze just about anything including high/low energy use between locations (have multiple points per SC from NC to FL and NC up to NY). Challenge to make a comparable analysis between fall, winter, summer, spring of course is wind direction, wind speed and temperature. In any event, winter temps in North Carolina are never as cold as Canadian winter temps but degradation is definitely an issue for me as well.

I use my trip odometer to measure seasonal energy consumption. In the colder weather in the mountains of NC I average about 300wh/mi. In the warmer season I average closer to 285wh/mi. I have always reset trip B at the season's change and left A to when I got the car so I had a lifetime average---that is until they reset both odometers at the service center last week. BUMMER

 

[humbaba]

Once-hailed 'Tesla Killer' Audi e-tron slows down production to just 6 hrs/day: report

"The Audi e-tron, once dubbed by avid Tesla critics as a potential “Tesla Killer,” is reportedly running into production problems due to a constrained supply of batteries and a slower-than-expected delivery of electric motors. These production problems have reportedly caused Audi to postpone the release of its upcoming all-electric car, the e-tron Sportback, to 2020, roughly a year later than its intended 2019 release date."

I found the following particularly amusing:

The e-tron is no slouch as well, being capable of sprinting from 0-60 mph in 5.5 seconds in “Boost” mode.

So it isn't even as fast as my M3MR? I guess having a boosted acceleration slower than a $35k mass market car is good enough to describe a luxury SUV that starts at more than twice the price as "no slouch". I mean, it is an SUV and no one could make an SUV that accelerated twice as fast as that, right?

(To be fair to Audi, the Tesla XLR is only 17% faster and costs 20% more. Of course, its 45% greater range in addition to the superior performance -- and isn't limited to 8 seconds of acceleration which may be why it takes 18s for an e-tron to reach 100mph instead of ~10s for the Tesla XLR.)

 

[aznt1217]

Just got back from Auto Press day at the New York Autoshow. I spent a lot of time in the iPace and eTron.

I was really not impressed and comforted. The Audi had some nice materials but the packaging of the car was really like an ICE car and there was a lot of wasted space. My Model 3 has more interior volume than it. They'll do well because "it's an Audi," but wow what a disappointment in my book.

The iPace is a disaster. I have no clue how they are getting away charging what they charge for it. I can't find a single thing I like about it. For those that complain about Tesla interior quality they really need to shut up and sit in this car. Let me just start by saying the handles... felt like my garbage can's plastic... you can assume the rest.

Anyway, I left super underwhelmed and a little down that the whole market isn't transitioning to EV's quicker. Just a lot of iterative stuff. Good news for Tesla, bad for industry.

 

[mongo]

I have a strong belief it will dip with the Q1 report. Nothing that I’ve seen or read leads me to believe there will be a surprise positive. Not that it’s not possible, just that the scenario for a dip is more likely.

That was a (weak) joke due to writing Autonomous Investor (code for being one) versus Autonomy Investor.

You must have missed the "If no such Notice is filed, the transcript may be made remotely electronically available to the public without redaction after 90 calendar days"

So three months after the 23rd the transcript would be made available. (Assuming no redactions requests were made.)

Yep, I sure did

 

[Antares Nebula]

Wow, pronounced totally different, how could you.

I don't know why this account is not just deleted by the moderators. This person is here clearly to mock and instigate, particularly targeting a TMC user, @KarenRei. Maybe I'm not familiar with TMC policy and what the redlines are...

 

[Joe F]

I've got news for you: the weather doesn't care if you are road-tripping vs. multi-point daily driving.

That's the whole point of this discussion: more range is needed in the cold. If you want to try and make the argument that the impact is more for stop-n-go, then you are really just underscoring that it's an issue.

Agreed, 100%. What those who think 45 degrees is cold winter weather, and those who glean their information from posts on TMC and have no real world experience driving a Tesla (or any other EV) in REAL winter conditions fail to appreciate, is why some of us state more range is crucial under some conditions. That's why I bought the highest range available at the time, and wish it were higher, for those times when it's really needed.

One example I've experienced; Highway driving, stated earlier should not be a range killer, can, under the right conditions, most certainly be just that. Heavy snow, slush covered roads, coupled with wind, sub zero temps, and the next 20+ miles of stop and go traffic because of the conditions, is a case where you find out what using range mode is for.

Some here will never appreciate real world experience until they do...

 

[EVMeister]

I see we are mentioning I-PACEs in this thread. So let me just say that I received one today and have shared my early impressions here: Jaguar I-Pace.

Before any of you jump on me, I did not buy it outright and wouldn't do so. I got it for an excellent price on a lease, the sort of deal Tesla would never and will never do. And that's something, as a Tesla investor, I'm glad of. I don't agree with some of the comments above regarding cheap material quality, but it really depends what you're used to and comparing it to I guess.

 

[Car In Ray]

I don't know why this account is not just deleted by the moderators. This person is here clearly to mock and instigate, particularly targeting a TMC user, @KarenRei. Maybe I'm not familiar with TMC policy and what the redlines are...

Solid: _________________________
Dashed --------------------------------------

 

[UnknownSoldier]

On the return leg of a road trip from Seattle to SF Bay Area. I'm at the Supercharger at Grant's Pass, OR and on the way up from the Bay I counted no less than 4 car carriers loaded with mostly 3's but also a few S and X heading north. Looks like this quarter's North American deliveries are well underway.

Oh God, I'm going to arrive in Portland right into the teeth of their rush hour. Just kill me now.

 

[bdy0627]

I have a strong belief it will dip with the Q1 report. Nothing that I’ve seen or read leads me to believe there will be a surprise positive. Not that it’s not possible, just that the scenario for a dip is more likely.

Except that everyone and their brother thinks this Q1 ER is bad. When the market expects something that strongly, it often doesn't happen or even the opposite does.

 

[KarenRei]

Yes - except I'm not sure about the actual outstanding shares. Is that from their Q4 report ? Then there is the diluted/undiluted numbers too - we don't know what that will be in the Q1 report.

But, roughly $150M loss (non-GAAP).

Well, automotive alone isn't going to do that. Fiat would help, if that's this quarter. Hmm, what would a good Tesla energy quarter return?

I imagine that the whisper number is lower than that. Everyone seems to expect this quarter to be a disaster. There's also the question as to what forward-looking statements will be made. Any news about an S+X refresh (I would be shocked if they're not asked about that), reaffirmed profit guidance for Q2, etc.

ED: Wait, non-GAAP? So GAAP would be lower?

 

[DocZ]

Your comparing current Autopilot software with unseen FSD software that is going to be running/demonstrated on Hardware 3.0. No one outside of Tesla's FSD team knows what the system is capable of and/or how far along or how close they are to feature complete. The only guidance we've been given is feature complete in 8 months.

Just to add on to this. Autopilot software and FSD software suites have likely been completely forked, probably a while ago, with the FSD team pushing the FSD software. That's why what we see on Monday could exponentially more impressive than current Autopilot....even with the latest NoA and Adv Summon features.

Again, more hypothetical scenarios about future updates. We’ve seen plenty of bold promises from Elon, this is no different. No doubt they’ll show something cool....but translating it to real world meaningful changes is likely years away. That’s why the market doesn’t price in their autopilot division.

 

[Skryll]

On the return leg of a road trip from Seattle to SF Bay Area. I'm at the Supercharger at Grant's Pass, OR and on the way up from the Bay I counted no less than 4 car carriers loaded with mostly 3's but also a few S and X heading north. Looks like this quarter's North American deliveries are well underway.

Oh God, I'm going to arrive in Portland right into the teeth of their rush hour. Just kill me now.

Autopilot and more TMC time? The new in-car web browser is a lot better than the old one btw.

 

[EVNow]

Well, automotive alone isn't going to do that. Fiat would help, if that's this quarter. Hmm, what would a good Tesla energy quarter return?

I imagine that the whisper number is lower than that. Everyone seems to expect this quarter to be a disaster. There's also the question as to what forward-looking statements will be made. Any news about an S+X refresh (I would be shocked if they're not asked about that), reaffirmed profit guidance for Q2, etc.

ED: Wait, non-GAAP? So GAAP would be lower?

Yes. non-GAAP excludes tock based compensation.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Q4 :

GAAP EPS 0.78
non-GAAP EPS 1.93.​

@luvb2b projected :

Q1 :

GAAP EPS : -3.4
non-GAAP EPS -2.24.​

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I see we are mentioning I-PACEs in this thread. So let me just say that I received one today and have shared my early impressions here: Jaguar I-Pace.

Before any of you jump on me, I did not buy it outright and wouldn't do so. I got it for an excellent price on a lease, the sort of deal Tesla would never and will never do. And that's something, as a Tesla investor, I'm glad of. I don't agree with some of the comments above regarding cheap material quality, but it really depends what you're used to and comparing it to I guess.

Enjoy the compliance car. You got a super deal. Good for you!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well, automotive alone isn't going to do that. Fiat would help, if that's this quarter. Hmm, what would a good Tesla energy quarter return?

I imagine that the whisper number is lower than that. Everyone seems to expect this quarter to be a disaster. There's also the question as to what forward-looking statements will be made. Any news about an S+X refresh (I would be shocked if they're not asked about that), reaffirmed profit guidance for Q2, etc.

ED: Wait, non-GAAP? So GAAP would be lower?

Yes, GAAP would be lower. Earnings Whisper surprisingly has a whisper number higher than the consensus at the moment: -0.57 EPS (assuming non-GAAP) on revenue of $6.23B.

 

[SO16]

It is definitely bizarre. I can't understand how they think that Waymo could scale their FSD up faster than Tesla can. Millions of FSD capable cars on the road by the time Waymo starts rolling cars out.

Shorts would say those millions of capable Tesla cars are NOT capable of FSD.

Monday will be interesting.

 

[Buddyroe]

I don't know about you, but I don't want to pay for or carry around an extra 2,000 pounds of battery weight to get 1,000 miles of range. It's a waste of resources and nearly triples the carbon footprint of the car production, all for an insane amount of range that will rarely get used. Battery supply is already limited, so tripling the number of cells per vehicle would significantly cut vehicle production. Combine the increased price, lower production numbers and increased carbon footprint - the result is EVs don't make sense.

The sweet spot, in my opinion, is about 400 miles of EPA rated range. That still provides a solid 200 miles (3 hours) of driving in the worst conditions. In normal driving conditions, long distance trips would have legs of 3+ hours between charging stops of about 20 minutes each.

Given your points, I would say the sweet spot is 500 miles.

Additionally, when I said 1000 miles, I meant with the battery size staying the same as today. The Model 3 just got a 15 mile boost from a software change. How many pounds were added to the car?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I don't know why this account is not just deleted by the moderators. This person is here clearly to mock and instigate, particularly targeting a TMC user, @KarenRei. Maybe I'm not familiar with TMC policy and what the redlines are...

This has now been taken care of. You have to realize that mods are not constantly online. Reporting is very helpful, as it was in this case.