Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[30seconds]

Elon need to take the stock price much more seriously. That means more balance on investment vs profits and slowing down expansion plans to build a more solid base.

For example telling investors that the solar roof is on hiatus, or that EU GF won’t be started until the company is continually profitable.

The good news is that they have options on financing. For example they could get a direct investment for part of the China business.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Well, I have divested the last 55 shares I hold. On Wednesday I held 400 shares. As of today I hold zero. Hopefully it stays this low or goes even lower in the next 30 days, then I will consider my options once I have booked all my losses following the wash sale period.

I don't believe that Tesla is going bankwupt and they better damn well not since I own this 3 but times will be rough for most of the rest of this year. If and when they show signs of health sometime around Q3 or Q4 2019 I hope to get back in at a much lower cost basis but only for short term swing trades.

Good luck to the longs who are still in. Your destiny lies along a different path than mine.

 

[Singuy]

It's not the end of the world, but you have to remember most people who bought in sometime in the last 5 years are now either flat or underwater in their Tesla investment, when over that time period the NASDAQ has doubled in value.... some grumbling is to be expected.

Musk's hype fell flat which caused many to jump the gun with this stock, me included. Now it's a show me stock, which is fine. Puts more pressure on him to execute better and cause an artificial low before what he promises(including profitability from now on statement).

So he needs to hit his guide and release FSD by year end(even if it's not perfect), and have GF3 completed by year end. He lost all credibility right now even though I feel he is actually more realistic today than before...saying how he'll be at 10k/week of Model 3s when they couldn't even get 1/10th of that out.

Even if he execute in a bumpy fashion, as long his aspirations are executed..that's all it matters. Currently they are pricing in him talking out of his ass for everything. That's misguided because he rarely doesn't execute..he just execute too late and perhaps a little bit different than what's promised. Just really sucks he likes to give out exact time lines for pipe dream scenarios over and over again. No one believes a thing he says anymore. His first goal is to hit 90k deliveries for Q2. If he does then that will get a lot of confidence back in the stock.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Don't think they will do cap raise until Q2 ER at the earliest in order to show that they can do higher prod, demand isn't an issue, and FCF and profit are back on the upward trajectory. There's no need for the money until Q3 at the earliest(debt payment of like 500 million I think and prob costs associated with the ramp at Giga 3 and Model Y parts orders). I am still very opposed to a cap raise at this price level. Should do a cap raise at anything under 300/share, otherwise find more debt to use.

1. My worry about waiting is risk. At some point a crashing stock will be the main focus and it will put a big dent in Tesla's ability to attract regular buyers that are worried about warranty and service operations.

2. More debt? That would be very expensive as Tesla has a junk credit rating and is already very leveraged. A very bad idea. Any investors who want to buy TSLA's debt can do so now at 8% yields.

3. I think they should raise equity now. They are starving Tesla for capital, that much is clear looking at the Q1 financials, delay in manufacturing the truck and not a single mention of roadster. As was asked on the call, if you have the first mover advantage then why let that go?

I'm a fan of the idea floated here for a rights offering to existing shareholders. Why give institutions a big discount, why not your loyal shareholders. It also encourages people who want to get in on the game to buy TSLA stock, and as has been pointed out.

 

[KSilver2000]

I do agree that we all need to be cheerleading for the investment opportunities, perhaps more than the cars.

Yup.
At least TSLA will be an appreciating asset, heh.

 

[capster]

...
Good luck to the longs who are still in. Your destiny lies along a different path than mine.

I prefer to think I am helping shape the destiny of others by holding. Thanks all the same.

 

[JBRR]

 

[Singuy]

1. My worry about waiting is risk. At some point a crashing stock will be the main focus and it will put a big dent in Tesla's ability to attract regular buyers that are worried about warranty and service operations.

2. More debt? That would be very expensive as Tesla has a junk credit rating and is already very leveraged. A very bad idea. Any investors who want to buy TSLA's debt can do so now at 8% yields.

3. I think they should raise equity now. They are starving Tesla for capital, that much is clear looking at the Q1 financials, delay in manufacturing the truck and not a single mention of roadster. As was asked on the call, if you have the first mover advantage then why let that go?

I'm a fan of the idea floated here for a rights offering to existing shareholders. Why give institutions a big discount, why not your loyal shareholders. It also encourages people who want to get in on the game to buy TSLA stock, and as has been pointed out.

Probably dread building the roaster because the first few hundred are probably gifts for youtubers.

 

[saniflash]

No one believes a thing he says anymore.

this sums up the entire drama right now.

 

[AndyH]

Saw a few more trucks full of Model 3s heading for San Francisco pier.

Have any boats arrived at Europe or China yet in April?

I've been checking car.info where Swedish registrations and preregistrations show up but there's been nothing new there since March. Numbers indicate that almost 500 Model 3s were undelivered in March so those should show up as sales in April at least.

 

[EVDRVN]

Picked up another 40 earlier.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

This is what I would call a total PR cluster f@ck on Tesla’s part. Right now 100 percent of the media is saying they are done because there is no demand. Nobody wants them. Arguably they produce about 1000 cars a day. But from what Joe public reads none or very few are sold. No reports of sales in Europe, China, the USA, Canada. Everybody in our workplace thinks they have already folded and the Supercharger network has been shut down. How much would it hurt to say, “hey we delivered 860 cars today”. “ “Hey we delivered 740 cars today” or “hey there was a record 1040 cars today in the world. That’s 1040 less vehicles with gas tanks.”But no. Just day after day of Tesla on the edge of bankruptcy. Tesla out of cash. Nobody wants Tesla’s. Tesla’s all blow up whenever they want.

The reason I don’t invest is lack of discretionary funds. But if I did have some dough I wouldn’t invest just from the PR point of view.

Great cars, quite literally the best, but, you know, nobody wants them....or so it seems.

Just sayin.

 

[elasalle]

if Tesla took a 980M bond offering, they would still be at same level of debt as last quarter ...
if those 10K vehicles were delivered on time (esp in China) we would have another 500 M in rev


So as bad as Q1 looked, was it really that bad?

 

[Pras]

Any chance it closes at 240+!!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Not the Defense industry, the Aerospace industry. Specifically the robotic asteroid mining robot industry. Do you think Elon doesn't know about this opportunity? Word.

The First Trillionaires Will Make Their Fortunes in Space

That's enough to pay for a city on Mars in one asteroid.

Do NOT get me started on asteroid mining. I’ll sound like @neroden on FSD.

 

[K_Dizzle]

SOLD TSLA 190426 235 CALL 3x @ .25/contract

Making some free lunch money ($70) in the next 60 mins.

You sweating yet?

 

[TradingInvest]

I bought more shares. I went through all my analysis and data one more time, nothing has changed. I have seen crazy stock moves in the past, this is not new to me.

A few years ago Netflix was attacked and dropped from $300 to $58, then rallied 50 fold. The drop and rally took a long time. Some leveraged speculators didn't do well. Those who bought shares using cash did ok.

I will hold though the next 15 years as planned, continue to add more shares with cash during big drops. I don't and can't predict short term stock moves. I think $232 is attractive.

 

[WarpedOne]

if Tesla took a 980M bond offering, they would still be at same level of debt as last quarter ...
if those 10K vehicles were delivered on time (esp in China) we would have another 500 M in rev
So as bad as Q1 looked, was it really that bad?

Yes.
Image is everything.

 

[dc_h]

Elon need to take the stock price much more seriously. That means more balance on investment vs profits and slowing down expansion plans to build a more solid base.

For example telling investors that the solar roof is on hiatus, or that EU GF won’t be started until the company is continually profitable.

The good news is that they have options on financing. For example they could get a direct investment for part of the China business.

I think the biggest problem with the stock the last 2 years is Elon taking the stock price too seriously. Take care of business and the stock price will follow. And stop f’ing around with pricing so much.

 

[anthonyj]

The Agony of High Returns -- The Motley Fool

Read it