Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

The Krug is buying a share at a time.

Actually it’s more than that. It’s one share per there’s a demand problem post. There’s a lot of those posts.

And now I’m actually considering adding one share per the sky is falling type of posts.

I am reminded if a certain February that saw the SP fall from $240 to $140 and the all out panic. Yes, sirree. Deja vu going on around here. Looks like I didn’t transfer enough cash to my trading account.

 

[Bunky]

Very painful action but staying strong and long. Respect to those that had the stones to buy this drop.

 

[Unpilot]

Actually it’s more than that. It’s one share per there’s a demand problem post. There’s a lot of those posts.

And now I’m actually considering adding one share per the sky is falling type of posts.

I am reminded if a certain February that saw the SP fall from $240 to $140 and the all out panic. Yes, sirree. Deja vu going on around here. Looks like I didn’t transfer enough cash to my trading account.

But if there is a demand problem...then the sky is falling.....sorry couldn't help myself

 

[elasalle]

Ross Gerber on Twitter

So this guy pumps 24/7 how great of an investment TSLA is and because it hits some arbitrary number he is forced to sell lol. No wonder shorts constantly make fun of him.

IIRC, He also says, for some of his new clients he is also still buying.
But almost all insti's follow rules, and rules trigger ... so it's likely they will come back with a vengance when another set of triggers kick in on the upside.

 

[PANN]

OT: I enjoyed this "A Recipe for Training Neural Networks" from Karpathy. Kinda puts some flesh and blood on the bones of the FSD work going on now.
Maybe now we're in FSD production hell?

I read this NN blog from Karpathy a few times, very helpful. My company is doing software and NN, so I have pretty high confidence that Tesla will achieve high level of FSD by end of 2019.

Software can be easily managed by just a small group of talented engineers, and it's 100 times easier and predictiable than volume car manufacturing. Elon comes from software background, and from the Automonous Day it's clear that he and the Tesla team have successfully progressed to a stage that they only have to keep fine-tuning the software & NN to make the FSD better every day.

I don't see any hell in software & NN, and from my 20+ years in software, I can understand why Elon (or any software background guy) would call volume car manufacturing "hell" -- when in software one guy can write the entire operating system (e.g. Linux), you feel really hellish when you see volume car manufacutring is subject to the stupidity of hundreds of suppliers and thousands of manufacturing workers that's just beyond your control.

 

[wipster]

So any old timer still in TSLA? How many did we lose on this round?

While not an old timer to this forum, my avg. purchase price is $43, so I am an oldtime stockholder. Ain't selling until I have to...

 

[EVDRVN]

Actually it’s more than that. It’s one share per there’s a demand problem post. There’s a lot of those posts.

And now I’m actually considering adding one share per the sky is falling type of posts.

I am reminded if a certain February that saw the SP fall from $240 to $140 and the all out panic. Yes, sirree. Deja vu going on around here. Looks like I didn’t transfer enough cash to my trading account.

If I start now I should be able to get in thousands by Monday,

 

[elasalle]

Actually it’s more than that. It’s one share per there’s a demand problem post. There’s a lot of those posts.

And now I’m actually considering adding one share per the sky is falling type of posts.

I am reminded if a certain February that saw the SP fall from $240 to $140 and the all out panic. Yes, sirree. Deja vu going on around here. Looks like I didn’t transfer enough cash to my trading account.

Aren't you losing $$ in # of trades?

There is a demand issue
There is a demand Issue
There is a demand Issue

(not, not not )

 

[Causalien]

Actually it’s more than that. It’s one share per there’s a demand problem post. There’s a lot of those posts.

And now I’m actually considering adding one share per the sky is falling type of posts.

I am reminded if a certain February that saw the SP fall from $240 to $140 and the all out panic. Yes, sirree. Deja vu going on around here. Looks like I didn’t transfer enough cash to my trading account.

Ya feb 2016. I can't remember what happened anymore. Was it Model X burning too much cash that the ER was too ugly?

 

[Krugerrand]

I've a third of your investment and share the same outlook. I cannot see Tesla going bankrupt, if they really got that far they would be bank-rolled somehow. Elon has very rich friends.

So although the SP going down is chronically stressful, I don't sell and ride it out. I have 15 years until official retirement age, should be find. Sooner would be nicer though...

Lightweights.

 

[M3Rider]

So, we have a couple of days to see if SEC news is appreciated, after that Insideevs April numbers should probably make a difference (maybe come out as soon as May 1, Wed). Per Elon, "we are tracking in April to the largest amount of deliveries from month 1 in the history of the company.", so, hopefully, maybe close to 30k to validate the Q2 delivery estimate?

I'm wondering if today's bloodbath would be an incentive for Elon to show some profit in Q2, which he could do by simply postponing some of the pipeline filling until Q3. I.e. don't take a 100% hit in Q2.

 

[kyzhk]

One real concern I have is how much all these bad news coverage cumulatively stopped or delayed potential customers from purchasing a Tesla. Repeat lies enough number of times until it becomes true...?

I was too naive to think that Q3 and Q4 result from 2018 would have been sufficient proofs - looks like we need at least 1 more year of consistent delivery with no botched logistics and execution.


On the other hand - I am sure there are people in this world with enough capital who have a true fair valuation of Tesla. There's a real lower limit on how low TSLA can go.

 

[JohnDinger]

The SEC settlement is definitely a win for Elon. He's walking away with no fines or further punishment. None of the things on that list should be announced via Twitter, anyway.

Hopefully this clears the way for Maxwell to close.

Not sure how SP react on SEC news on Monday, but my weekend definitely got better

I doubt much at all. This was the expected outcome. It's ridiculous the SEC even started this whole thing.

What should profitable car markers with stellar reputation be valued at if Tesla gets 2x annual revenue rarely posting profits?
"But, but, startup, production limited!". Sort of, yes. But let's first see them equal 18Q4, then think of growth again.

This. This. This.

The stock is taking a huge beating because Elon said in January that Tesla would be cash flow positive and profitable all quarters going forward.

Three months later and they post a massive, massive loss. And their guidance says they'll still post a loss in Q2 despite likely record deliveries.

Institutional investors will not stand for Elon promises or timelines anymore. They need to see Tesla start delivering the Model 3 profits that were promised before getting behind things like the Solar Roof, Semi, or Autonomous Driving.

 

[EinSV]

So any old timer still in TSLA? How many did we lose on this round?

Still have my shares from November 2012. Plus a bunch more, including these from first TMC post in early Feb. 2016:

If you can stomach some ups and downs this seems like the best opportunity for long-term investors since early 2013. Short-term problems with X launch and market downturn have created a great opportunity for LT investors. Added to my shares Friday for first time since 2012.

IMO, now seems like the best opportunity to buy TSLA since early 2016, and actually even better given how good the Model 3 is, how far behind the competition is, and how promising Tesla's product roadmap looks. I am already more than maxed out on TSLA but bought a small handful of shares this morning because I can't resist a good sale.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I'm wondering if today's bloodbath would be an incentive for Elon to show some profit in Q2, which he could do by simply postponing some of the pipeline filling until Q3. I.e. don't take a 100% hit in Q2.

Hope not. The shenanigans need to end.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Somewhat unrelated thought: The Y still shows up with normal Autopilot being $3k... I wonder when/if that's going to be folded in as standard, like the other cars...

 

[Remus]

So, we have a couple of days to see if SEC news is appreciated, after that Insideevs April numbers should probably make a difference (maybe come out as soon as May 1, Wed). Per Elon, "we are tracking in April to the largest amount of deliveries from month 1 in the history of the company.", so, hopefully, maybe close to 30k to validate the Q2 delivery estimate?

I'm wondering if today's bloodbath would be an incentive for Elon to show some profit in Q2, which he could do by simply postponing some of the pipeline filling until Q3. I.e. don't take a 100% hit in Q2.

inside EV would show only U.S. data right? lots of delivery happened overseas

 

[TheMrX]

I guess now we can begin to have ''traditional'' advertising :

Nathan on Twitter

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I guess now we can begin to have ''traditional'' advertising :

Nathan on Twitter

For free!

 

[heltok]

Three months later and they post a massive, massive loss. And their guidance says they'll still post a loss in Q2 despite likely record deliveries.

I have a hard time seeing how they will not be ”profitable” with record deliveries, HW3, FCA etc. Maybe they intend to kill the wave and that is the one time event that will push them to not make a profit in Q2...