Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

Can someone influential on Twitter to start a Buy 1 Tesla Share campaign and we retweet to all Tesla owners? The shorts want to destroy Tesla in this round, let the Cult give them a real war.

Like start a cryptocurrency that holds TSLA shares?

 

[Pras]

Can someone influential on Twitter to start a Buy 1 Tesla Share campaign and we retweet to all Tesla owners? The shorts want to destroy Tesla in this round, let the Cult give them a real war.

Won’t help much. The thing is maybe the short will start to wind down and new large investors will come. Many would have been on sideline until yesterday. If you are a buyer on sideline, you would have been waiting for this. With SEC overhang and negative Q gone, the opportunity won’t last long. I am in deep red (avg cost $286) I wish was one of them. But this stock was never about 10% gain, so in scheme of things this is nothing. Just recently Apple fell to 139s and came back roaring.

 

[Cobbler]

A stupid idea: in Belgium you can't say on the radio where mobile radars are located to prevent listeners getting speeding tickets. So they bypass it by saying ''falling stars are seen..."

If Elon tweets "We'll produce 500k rockets next year" instead of mentioning cars....

Would those kind of tweets need approval also?

 

[Huskyf]

Can someone influential on Twitter to start a Buy 1 Tesla Share campaign and we retweet to all Tesla owners? The shorts want to destroy Tesla in this round, let the Cult give them a real war.

Good idea If you see how many subscribers 21.2 m on twitter if all buy just one Share…...

 

[Johann Koeber]

A stupid idea: in Belgium you can't say on the radio where mobile radars are located to prevent listeners getting speeding tickets. So they bypass it by saying ''falling stars are seen..."

If Elon tweets "We'll produce 500k rockets next year" instead of mentioning cars....

Would those kind of tweets need approval also?

That will easily get Elon/Tesla in trouble.

As you said ... A stupid idea.

Cheers

 

[Earlian]

I'll add that I'm all-in $TSLA, I'm just not that affluent

Same here.

Also, I stopped watching my depot over a week ago. That helps...

 

[Aieukl378]

Every time someone shouts huge squeeze coming, some people buy short term calls or use full margin, then they get crushed. Manipulators happily take the money.

Work hard, save more cash, only invest the cash you actually own, you decide what to do with your cash (not being forced to sell at the worst time upon margin calls), you decide how many years you can hold onto each position, don't play the wall street game. It's a rigged game at every level.

I always assume there is a decent chance to see lower levels. I just keep saving more cash. I say Tesla's downside is safe, but I have seen 1 out of 1 trillion odds happen in my life. So assume anything is possible. Invest, don't gamble.

This is not advice, although I said "you should...". This is the lesson I learned and posted a few times in the past, it worked for me. I love TSLA for the long term.

Exactly my sentiment and I'm not implying a trading strategy. The short term trading game is a fools errand for retail investors and I'm holding TSLA with a 10 year timeline. "Fun" to watch and speculate tho.

 

[HG Wells]

A stupid idea: in Belgium you can't say on the radio where mobile radars are located to prevent listeners getting speeding tickets. So they bypass it by saying ''falling stars are seen..."

If Elon tweets "We'll produce 500k rockets next year" instead of mentioning cars....

Would those kind of tweets need approval also?

DAM. That explains why our meteorite hunt in Belgium failed so miserably.

 

[Sunlight]

Same here.

Also, I stopped watching my depot over a week ago. That helps...

When I was living in the UK, I found the best way to deal with the weather was to NEVER read the forecasts………….

If they said "Nice tomorrow" and it was crap; you'd end up feeling despondent; if they said "Clearing up after midday " and it didn't, you'd feel cheated; if they said "Miserable tomorrow" and it WAS miserable, you'd just get depressed about the crappy weather. If they said "Miserable" and it was warm and sunny, you'd be irritated with that umbrella you were unnecessarily carting around...…….

If, however, you didn't bother to look at the forecast then you were pleasantly surprised if turned out sunny/nice; not disappointed if it was rubbish and you had the fun of dealing with whatever was thrown at you - prepared or not.

It is a good approach to take with the Tesla share price...……..!

 

[bdy0627]

One thing to be mindful of is sell in May and go away. I think macros are particularly susceptible to that this year since they are just again reaching all time highs at the end of April, and some may be looking for a triple top.

However, Tesla has a very good chance of largely ignoring macros too as it hopefully rebounds off a huge drop.

and Tesla usually climbs during the summer, which at its current level it is likely to do again.

 

[SPadival]

So any old timer still in TSLA? How many did we lose on this round?

How old is old timer? Nearly 3 years and I still in, but not directly - via ARKK.

 

[bdy0627]

he did get a punishment. More scrutiny on his communications. Not exactly great for someone who basically says whatever comes to his mind on twitter.

Does anyone think Elon won't screw this up? His use of Twitter, which is probably similar to an addiction, will need to completely change if he is to follow the strict limits set by this agreement with the SEC. The ONLY way I see him not violating this is if he puts a plan in place where all Tesla related tweets are first sent to legal for review. That completely changes the casual way Elon tweets pretty much any Tesla info on Twitter. Is he really going to send all Tesla tweets first to legal for review? I find it hard to believe, but that would greatly reduce the chance of him violating this agreement. If he doesn't send all Tesla tweets to legal for review then he will almost certainly violate the agreement at some point. With Elon's hubris, I think the odds heavily favor him violating this agreement at some point.

 

[sparcs]

Does anyone think Elon won't screw this up? His use of Twitter, which is probably similar to an addiction, will need to completely change if he is to follow the strict limits set by this agreement with the SEC. The ONLY way I see him not violating this is if he puts a plan in place where all Tesla related tweets are first sent to legal for review. That completely changes the casual way Elon tweets pretty much any Tesla info on Twitter. Is he really going to send all Tesla tweets first to legal for review? I find it hard to believe, but that would greatly reduce the chance of him violating this agreement. If he doesn't send all Tesla tweets to legal for review then he will almost certainly violate the agreement at some point. With Elon's hubris, I think the odds heavily favor him violating this agreement at some point.

I worry more about him saying something stupid in another interview like 60 minutes and it edited in a way that gets him in trouble.

He really likes to touch fire. If it were me, I wouldn't want to even bring up the SEC anymore for the sake of my employees, fans, etc. and yet here he is back on twitter making references even today.

 

[Vitold]

Does anyone think Elon won't screw this up? His use of Twitter, which is probably similar to an addiction, will need to completely change if he is to follow the strict limits set by this agreement with the SEC. The ONLY way I see him not violating this is if he puts a plan in place where all Tesla related tweets are first sent to legal for review. That completely changes the casual way Elon tweets pretty much any Tesla info on Twitter. Is he really going to send all Tesla tweets first to legal for review? I find it hard to believe, but that would greatly reduce the chance of him violating this agreement. If he doesn't send all Tesla tweets to legal for review then he will almost certainly violate the agreement at some point. With Elon's hubris, I think the odds heavily favor him violating this agreement at some point.

Elon is not stupid.

 

[HG Wells]

Found what I think is a very useful website for determining inventory cars.
Looks like 441 inventory model 3's in US as of 4/27.
10 in Canada.

See https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

 

[SO16]

A good percentage of luxury car buyers at least casually follow business news.

"Another Yuge Loss for Tesla" headlines don't help demand.

Agreed. I have a couple potential Model X buyers but this certainly has spooked them. And just the other day again, I had a couple people kinda snickering that Tesla is “failing”. GDammit I thought I was past having to defend Tesla in this capacity. It sure better be at least “manageable” Q3 and forward.

 

[SO16]

The problem is that had they implemented that "automated review process" and had the lawyer made any mistake, even a minor one, regarding the extensive list of topics the original settlement required approval for, the SEC could still have sued Tesla for approving "inaccurate" information that "reasonably could contain information material to the Company". They could also have sued Elon for a wide range of topics that are only tangentially related to material information.

(It would also have been unconstitutional to restrict or even filter all of Elon's tweets, even if Elon agrees.)

The real problem was not Elon, but the ambiguous and broad "reasonably could contain information material to the Company" language of the settlement which favored the SEC and gave them a tool to spuriously attack either Elon or Tesla.

The "reasonably could contain information material to the Company" language is now gone from the settlement, and this is a major win, as it significantly restricts the SEC's ability to file frivolous motions. The 20 tweets the SEC listed as "problematic" in their motions? None require pre-approval now under the new rules AFAICS.

This provides a lot of clarity and restricts the range of topics Elon has to seek approval for, and I'd not be surprised if the judge also added a mandatory conflict resolution process before the SEC can file another contempt motion, to avoid the kind of weekend ambush they performed in February.

This modified settlement is exactly what Elon and Tesla needed and wanted.

I think Elon’s justification of the 500k vehicles tweet was because it was stated on the call. But I don’t know that it was “written” in official communications. So I do think that tweet would now be considered in violation per the new rules if it was to have happened now.

 

[bdy0627]

[QUOTE="The infamous "make 500,0000 cars in 2019" number Elonism looks to be much harder to realize as it can't lean on botched delivery scheduling in the period preceding it. Nearly 10,000 over a week is what this would mean after 24 bit decoding. And we've not seen them get much past 2k for S+X, right? Might the partial Q1 shut down have also have helped maximum throughput? I want to believe it, but don't expect it.

Pretty much at this point, the 500k in 2019(or technically 500k run rate) is all based on if you think Giga 3 is going to be operational to the tune of 2-3k/week by the end of 2019. The latest news is encouraging on that front.....[/QUOTE]
Yeah, Elon has already walked back on his first statement a couple of times now. He first clarified it was just a run rate at the end of 2019 not actual 2019 production amount. In later tweets, he has been saying 500k over the next 12 months. In the Q1 CC, when asked about Shanghai coming online, he said "it looks like we’ll reach volume production at the end of this year with, let’s say, more than 1,000 cars a week, maybe 2,000 from Shanghai Giga at the end of this year. That’s what it looks like to be the case right now. If it’s not at the end, it will be shortly thereafter."

A run rate of 500k per year averages out to a weekly production rate of a little over 9,600. Based upon Elon's statement on the CC that they think Shanghai will be at 1k-2k at the end of the year or shortly thereafter, it seems unlikely they will hit 9,600 per week by the end of 2019. They have guided for Fremont hitting 7k per week by the end of the year. If they achieve that and Shanghai hits the upper end of Elon's guess at 2,000 then total production will be at 9,000/week at the end of 2019. That's close but still less than the 500k run rate Elon tweeted about, plus that's the top range of guidance, which Tesla has failed to hit thus far during the model 3 ramp. It would be far more reasonable to anticipate them hitting the low end of guidance, which would be more like 8,000k per week at the end of 2019, which is an annual rate of just over 400k. Within just a few months into 2020, they should be able to get to 9,000+, and the slight delay is not a big deal at all in the scheme of things, but it still means Elon is not making accurate statements. That's hubris and likely not going away.

 

[SebastianR]

So any old timer still in TSLA? How many did we lose on this round?

No idea what Oldtimer means but I’m still long and strong

In fact, I think I should add to my position...

 

[Buckminster]

A book we read to our kid a decade ago. An important simple philosophy to understand in life. The learning point being that your small house will feel luxuriously large after you shared it with farmyard animals. Elon moving away from the delivery wave will leave Tesla supremely efficient - world class in another part of the industry.
Employees will be heard saying to their boss:
"I only need to deliver 10 cars today?"