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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OT warning.


Asking for some rule of thumb for owning luxury cars? Doing the math for roadster 2020 after buying a house.

What is the usual liquid net worth requirement for owning a 250k car and the cash flow required to maintain it?

Occassional driving.

Hm? There’s no such requirement... and if you own the car outright, the monthly costs are lower than even a Toyota Corolla...
 
Looking at Tesla’s moves and announcements they are making some big long term moves. Everything is about building a giant. The problem is nothing is running at anywhere near full capacity. The next couple years will be concerning for investors. But we know if things go somewhat right the return could be special.
-Tesla needs to keep showing that there is demand for the cars
-the Gigafactories and long term tech goals should keep confidence in Tesla’s future.
-I think if the support is there for two more years things will take off. Currently Tesla is still vulnerable to “bad press”
-Musk would have left the company in someone else’s hands by now if he wanted it in “autopilot” but his confidence is in what the company will likely become and he wants to be at the helm as it happens.
For me the shorts are looking at this as a war in which they feel they can control the perception of a volatile company. However, not enough has been written about what happens when Tesla unlocks more territories, when Gigafactories are running at full capacity, as it establishes itself as a global brand in automobiles and technology. All this can happen within the next 5 years and it’s not some fantasy, everything is on track for these goals to be real.
 
Also, as tomorrow goes, I'm super nervous on day one Elon is going to make some snide SEC remark on Twitter killing any chance of a rebound. Will spouting off on TMC help...probably not...but beats doing nothing.
<not an advice>
I suggest taking a deep breath, closing TMC on your browser and taking a nice long walk. No point getting all riled up over things you can't control.
</ not an advice>
 
About that 9 years lead. You say that like it means something.
So it means nothing? That's really your position?

I clearly said tech history teaches us their 9 year lead doesn't matter if they have the wrong business plan. So it doesn't mean "everything". But it does mean "something".

I find it laughable that people would refer to waymo as in any way a competitor to tesla with a serious face.
You may have a serious face, but you've done no serious analysis. Which company is approved for empty driver's seat in two states? Which has driven thousands of miles on public roads with an empty driver's seat? Which pulls over for emergency vehicles? (Running into them doesn't count, haha). Which has the best machine learning expertise? Which is learning about consumer behavior and logistics by running an actual service today?

These are objective facts. They don't tell the whole story, but it's absurd to ignore them.
 
Yes the twig joke was funny. And clever. Hence the responses to the Tweet and large number of likes. Don't let the angry lobster get you all down.
You and tons of other teens thought is was funny/clever which is totally fine...if he wasn't the CEO and face of Tesla. Look, I'm not offended by this stuff...I sort of liked the stupid ape rap video BUT what's the public perception? What are institutional investors thinking? What if he really crosses the line? Public perception if a fickle thing...I mean you don't need to look far to find a fallen hero. Can't believe anyone who has a vested interest in the success of Tesla thinks this type of behavior is a net positive.
 
At least some, if not most, of this current action is a REALLY intense bear attack with heavy shorting focused on ripping down through the $250 support. That obviously then triggered some substantial selling. Not saying there isn't institutional selling, but this stock is uniquely traded as a result of being poorly distributed with consolidated insider ownership and heavy short interest. At times, that dynamic produces big drops that can look like heavy institutional selling even though it's really basically an intense bear attack. This is why TSLA is so intensely volatile, with huge drops and rapid climbs. Take a look at this chart from July 2017 when there wasn't even any news going on, just an orchestrated bear raid surrounding the July 4th holiday. Stock rapidly dropped from $386 to $306 (21%). This was near the ATH level, so there certainly was some profit taking, but the point remains. High volume red candles yet it wasn't because institutional longs were dumping. Look at the rapid recovery over just 5 weeks. That's just TSLA.

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I’ve been saying all along. This is why TSLA is a good stock to trade. Unless you were in this before beginning 2014, best way to make money is absorbing the punches and riding the waves. You don’t have to be a short, a super bull or bear, a kook-aid drinker or hater. Just take it as given. For example, Musk’s $420 tweet, that was an opportunity hand delivered by Musk to take profit. If you didn’t, well, nothing to complain about.
You know this stock is going to go up and down, and up and down, moreso than most stocks. It’s too predictable.
Have to be objective as an investor. Can’t fall in love or have bias one way or other. I’ve seen many people get tripped because of that. If you have that much passion, work for the company instead.
 
Not really. I buy based on reviews at Amazon. Don't watch any TV and I filter out ads on the web (i.e. by habit don't look at them).

ps : I do think Tesla should do simple web ads.

Even if that's your case, do you recognize what an outlier that makes you ? You are the exception that proves the rule, because most people don't live free of advertising (Of course, you should not assume that the reviews you rely upon are not impacted by advertising).

The central question for investors is whether EVs are going to be (1) a niche market for a small percentage of outliers or (2) quickly move to mainstream consumers. For investors, advertising is a good sign that TSLA will move mainstream. Those on this board should embrace advertising as the way to move to the mainstream.

Look at the S/X demand drying up. Sure we here think it's in need of a major refresh (even with 370 mile range), but most people are not familiar with it at all. People ask me about my S all the time, they think its a totally new, unfamiliar thing. Now Tesla is just going to let S/X demand dry up, without any attempt to educate or build an image with the broader public.

Elon can reach millions of the faithful with his tweets, but tweeting alone will not do the job with the new buyers that are needed.
 
You and tons of other teens thought is was funny/clever which is totally fine...if he wasn't the CEO and face of Tesla. Look, I'm not offended by this stuff...I sort of liked the stupid ape rap video BUT what's the public perception? What are institutional investors thinking? What if he really crosses the line? Public perception if a fickle thing...I mean you don't need to look far to find a fallen hero. Can't believe anyone who has a vested interest in the success of Tesla thinks this type of behavior is a net positive.

I'm no teen, old man. You could do with a sense of humour. Or at least a nice walk outside. Get some fresh air, don't sit here venting.
 
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Even if that's your case, do you recognize what an outlier that makes you ? You are the exception that proves the rule, because most people don't live free of advertising (Of course, you should not assume that the reviews you rely upon are not impacted by advertising).

The central question for investors is whether EVs are going to be (1) a niche market for a small percentage of outliers or (2) quickly move to mainstream consumers. For investors, advertising is a good sign that TSLA will move mainstream. Those on this board should embrace advertising as the way to move to the mainstream.

Look at the S/X demand drying up. Sure we here think it's in need of a major refresh (even with 370 mile range), but most people are not familiar with it at all. People ask me about my S all the time, they think its a totally new, unfamiliar thing. Now Tesla is just going to let S/X demand dry up, without any attempt to educate or build an image with the broader public.

Elon can reach millions of the faithful with his tweets, but tweeting alone will not do the job with the new buyers that are needed.
So true...and many buyers are loser baby boomers(like me;)) who still watch TV.

I'm trying to get my neighbor to buy one...first thing she says is "but they don't even advertise". Like it or not it is what it is. Don't know if we can wait for the 15 year olds to turn 35 before they by their first Tesla.
 
Yet shorts have been calling for exactly the same things you have. Conclusions drawn.
I've just been trading too long to get overly optimistic or hopeful with regards to any stock. If you read my posts on this forum I'm basically stating the obvious:Tesla's communication sucks and needs to improve NOW. I love the company, they make unbelievable products and if they succeed we all succeed which makes it even more perplexing that they can drop the ball so ****ing hard in regards to the easy part: communicating *sugar* effectively.