Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Yes, also these were the low margined SR+ versions, so it's even worse

The Tesla brand is going to survive but equity holders in the current structure are not going to fare to well in the near future imo

I beg to differ. I talk to a lot of people, real people on the street, not the bots on twitter. I see more and more Tesla cars on the street and on the parking lots everywhere I go, and I live in a very cold place, not in California.

All Tesla owners I chat with are super happy about their cars, they LOVE their cars and they let friends, neighbors, co-workers to test drive... What's the reaction from the neighbors and coworkers? I have first hand experience. Everyone who test drove my Model 3 said they really love the car, they want to buy one.

As a long term share only investor, I'm not concerned at all. As long as shorts are willing to sell me shares at great price, I'm happy. It's shorts who really should be worried, but that's not my business.

 

[KarenRei]

"Estimated delivery: June" — so we can expect at least a mini-wave of RHD vehicles at the end of Q2?

Hope they have delivery infrastructure ironed out. With only one month of deliveries, UK and Ireland should be able to soak up whatever they can send.

Wonder if Iceland will get June deliveries too... my odometer just hit 750k km today

 

[Christine69420]

Per April 12th Tesla sold 660 cars, 606 of those TM3, 40 TMX, 14 TMS in Norway.

In Mars they sold 5828 cars, 5315 of those TM3. This was exceptional - pent up TM3 cars from years back.

In Mars 2018 they sold 1409 cars. 727 were TMX. 682 TMS.

Tesla Model 3 SR plus at 50350
Nissan Leaf Eplus SL at 39150.

We still lean towards the Leaf for charging reasons but the model 3 is tempting.

Are you aware of the rapidgate issue some Leaf owners are experiencing?

In British Columbia there are many CCS and CHAdeMO locations, few Superchargers.

Can't TM3 charge on CHADEMO with the adapter in America? AFAIK the American TM3 do not have CCS but the standard type2 my TMX has. And I charge with CHADEMO occasionally.

 

[Zaxxon]

In Mars they sold 5828 cars

This is *way* ahead of schedule. Great news!

 

[KSilver2000]

Below 7k was my "very sad" possibility. E.g. that the call guidance was wrong.

10k was my "very happy" possibility because it's a 50% QoQ rise. Which is wonderful.

I’m going to respectfully argue that is moving goalposts.
Even a Tesla Super bear wouldn’t estimate a drop from 10k last month to 7k this month.

And a good amount of that 10k is supposed to have been from unrecognized in-transit cars from March.

What seems to be a talking trend lately is “in-transit” numbers. Almost like talking “peak” or “annualized” rates.

 

[Thumper]

Does Tesla remove unlimited free supercharging from cars that are traded in when they sell them on to the next owner? It would make sense to do so.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

its crazy to care about US numbers now Tesla sales of all its products are global. I sell video games all over the world, and for the majority of my career, a huge chunk of those sales were in the US. My latest game has relatively lower sales in the US (omg the sky is falling), but its crazy popular in Germany. Net result is a decent income.

All humans have a natural predisposition to give bias to things they see personally or hear anecdotally over the hard figures. Unless half of your social social is in Norway and the other half in Beijing, you probably are not attuned to the global market for Tesla.

Its been a LONG wait for non-US fans of the model 3 who wanted their cars. Don't be surprised if tesla gives the non-US market some serious focus for a while.

Also...anecdotally I just heard about another friend ordering a model 3 now they are on sale in the UK

 

[JRP3]

2018 - deifnitely no equity raise needed... 2018 this forum "no equity raise, if you disagree you're full of FUD and don't know anything". 2019 - "we think we need to do an equity raise..."

I'm not sure of your point. No raise was needed in 2018, no raise was needed in Q1 of 2019, now Elon says it might be getting time for a raise. If the CEO thinks it might be time for a raise I find it prudent to listen, but not when various outsiders think so, (and were proven wrong).

I'm also driving a Model 3 - but I don't remember "everyone" saying it would not exist. In fact I don't remember anyone saying it would not exist.

Then you weren't paying attention to all the noise out there, not that I blame you. Every product from Tesla has been called "vaporware" before it was delivered.

 

[Beltsbear]

Does Tesla remove unlimited free supercharging from cars that are traded in when they sell them on to the next owner? It would make sense to do so.

Not for earlier cars with lifetime of the car free supercharging.

 

[Tslynk67]

If these estimates are even remotely close, what happened to the “record April” Tesla was claiming? Even if you give benefit of doubt and doubled the total for non-US markets, it’s just ~25k.
These are not bad in itself given the Tesla story. But when compared to talking points by Musk and others at Tesla, those are some typically crappy numbers. This is not how you start a quarter with an estimate of 90-100k. Still can’t get to an average of 5,000/wk model 3’s.

- These are estimates and only for the USA
- A load of cars have been put on boats and are currently crossing the ocean to other continents
- This estimate for M3 is 2.8x higher than April 2018
- This estimate is 50% higher than January Q1

So yeah, 90k-100k seems a long way off, but it looks on-track based on this one data point

 

[Cherry Wine]

I’m going to respectfully argue that is moving goalposts.
Even a Tesla Super bear wouldn’t estimate a drop from 10k last month to 7k this month.

And a good amount of that 10k is supposed to have been from unrecognized in-transit cars from March.

What seems to be a talking trend lately is “in-transit” numbers. Almost like talking “peak” or “annualized” rates.

The only one touting in-transit numbers at length here is you.

 

[Intl Professor]

Sawadi krap.

"A" pronounced like crop, not in "A" as in a euphemism for excrement.

And good day sir (polite form) to you as well. I once asked my wife what sleepers at the corners of eyes are called in her language. "Eye **sugar**," she said.

 

[JRP3]

And a good amount of that 10k is supposed to have been from unrecognized in-transit cars from March.

Wouldn't most of "in-transit" be vehicles outside of the US?

 

[The Blue Owl]

This is fascinating. Panasonic is really screwing up -- failing to get to targeted production levels. Tesla has all the leverage. The opposite of the LG Chem situation where LG Chem has all the leverage against the other carmarkers.

I think Musk is prepared to live with this for a while. He aluded to it in the Autonomy Day presentation when he answered a question about battery supply constraints with "that's a whole other discussion".

If I were to read his mind, my bet is that he's thinking that the current strategic entanglement with Panasonic will be less and less relevant in the future. If there was only one thing to take from his whole presence at Autonomy Day, it was that he's laser-focused on the night the robotaxi network "awakes with one over-the-air update", after which the "very cash flow positive" era will commence. In other words, if one believes Tesla is due to start printing serious money within the next 20-30 months with cars for which their customers are fronting them the money, one concludes that eventually Tesla will be in a position to buy all the Gigafactories they want. The banks will fall over themselves to lend them the money at Prime + 1.75%.

 

[Tslynk67]

Does Tesla remove unlimited free supercharging from cars that are traded in when they sell them on to the next owner? It would make sense to do so.

No, it's on the lifetime of the car. Personally I wish it were bonded to the owner instead, would make much more sense, rewarding the early adopters and encouraging existing owners to upgrade.

 

[neroden]

OT

When it comes to CNBC and Chanos, this article comes to mind..(think the Chapath video).

The Intellectual Yet Idiot

I linked through to a lot of good Taleb material from that. Thanks. He can be a bit strident (even by my standards!) but he's usually (not always) right.
The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority
Where You Cannot Generalize from Knowledge of Parts (continuation of the Minority Rule)

 

[jerry33]

Per April 12th Tesla sold 660 cars, 606 of those TM3, 40 TMX, 14 TMS in Norway.

In Mars they sold 5828 cars, 5315 of those TM3. This was exceptional - pent up TM3 cars from years back.

In Mars 2018 they sold 1409 cars. 727 were TMX. 682 TMS.



Are you aware of the rapidgate issue some Leaf owners are experiencing?



Can't TM3 charge on CHADEMO with the adapter in America? AFAIK the American TM3 do not have CCS but the standard type2 my TMX has. And I charge with CHADEMO occasionally.

Not yet. The Tesla on-line store shows incompatible with Model 3. How long that will be is anyone's guess. They may even come out with CCS before CHAdeMO because Model 3 has CCS in Europe (CCS Europe standard is slightly different than North American CCS standard).

 

[Tslynk67]

I wonder if those moaning about the InsideEV's estimates have actually read their article? I suggest they do so...

Tesla Model 3, S & X Sales In U.S. In April 2019

 

[saniflash]

Does Tesla remove unlimited free supercharging from cars that are traded in when they sell them on to the next owner? It would make sense to do so.

No, it's on the lifetime of the car. Personally I wish it were bonded to the owner instead, would make much more sense, rewarding the early adopters and encouraging existing owners to upgrade.

there's both variants. Free Supercharging was initially tied to the vehicle, and then to the first owner before it was phased out

 

[neroden]

I think that at the moment the demand equals supply and it is fairly balanced.

You're delusional. Look at the overseas backlog, then try again.