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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The decline all the way from 375 is parabolic, and parabolic moves almost always end with a sharp rebound. It doesn't look like the decline can get any sharper - maybe one last quick decline to the Spiegel Bottom.

Those technicals don’t work with TSLA. It can’t account for Musk’s unexpected emails, tweets, guidances, and announcements. Just hope Musk doesn’t have anything to say about Q2 deliveries or profits until earnings release, and that Tesla does reach his guidance of 90k at least. Otherwise, we will be sliding lower.
 
Well aside jokes that she had a kernel panic and had to be rebooted with some injected root scripts, it was a public discussion, so I ain't gonna ask. I'm sure she'll be back here in due course.
Mod: I have to occasionally remind my children that some jokes are funny at first, but not forever. Kids, enough about this. --ggr
 
It's nice to see an article that actually talks about shorts etc.

Short sellers are to blame for the drop in Tesla's stock, Bank of America claims

Short sellers are to blame for the drop in Tesla's stock, Bank of America claims


  • "It appears much of the pressure on the stock over the past few days/weeks has been driven by shorts pressing aggressively," BofA analyst John Murphy writes.
  • Tesla stock is down nearly 40% in the last six months and down 26% since April 1.

Tesla's recent stock price plunge is likely due to short sellers increasing their bets against the company, Bank of America told clients Wednesday.

That's also priming shares for a sharp move upward in a "short squeeze," the bank predicted.


A so-called battleground stock, Tesla has split Wall Street between those who believe in CEO Elon Musk's electric car manufacturer and those who think its financial issues may be too large to overcome without major business changes. More than 31% of Tesla floating shares were sold short by May 21, according to FactSet data.

"Although far from taking a constructive view on TSLA (see below for more detail), it appears much of the pressure on the stock over the past few days/weeks has been driven by shorts pressing aggressively," analyst John Murphy wrote.

"In our view, this could set up for a short squeeze in the coming days/weeks/months should deliveries, profits/losses, cash flow/burn come in even slightly better than draconian expectations, or should Musk introduce another business venture and/or longer-term financial target that once again gets bulls excited," he added.

Tesla stock is down nearly 40% in the last six months and down 26% since April 1.

Despite the short squeeze warning, Murphy is not positive on Tesla's business and has an underperform rating on the stock.

Some high-profile short sellers such as David Einhorn and Jim Chanos have clashed with Tesla and its CeO Musk in the last few years.

Most recently, Einhorn said Tesla CEO Elon Musk's promises about Tesla's self-driving vehicles were "a lot of horse---t." Last year, Einhorn and Musk clashed over Greenlight's short position.
 
Every one of your most recent five posts spins a negative picture of Tesla and its stock. According to your posts, you no longer own a Tesla, you don't invest in Tesla but you trade in it to take advantage of its violent reversals. If you trade in TSLA but don't invest in it, I suppose that leaves shorting as an option. You may be a swing trader, but your negative opinions in the thread when TSLA is on the downswing are not appreciated. The main investment thread is open for your postings, but I would prefer for all of us to keep this thread mostly focused on the daily trading charts and I would appreciate PDQ's choosing another thread for posting opinions about TSLA. Sometimes it is appropriate to respond to something mentioned in the daily trading chart, but let's try to keep from straying too far like we've seen in the past couple of days.

Papafox: Just because i have a different point of view of things shouldn't get you riled up. My most recent post featured GE and why the stock market is reacting to what was once the darling of Wall Street under Jack Walsh, and recently flirted with talk of bankruptcy due to mismanagement, with the stock now trading down in the single digits. My main message was -- from an investment standpoint -- never love a stock. Stocks are a cold investment, not a mistress.

And, while you say my negative views on the downside aren't appreciated, let's put this in context. Going back to Jan 1, when the stock was at $332, you were advancing the reasons why it could go past $360. As I write this TSLA is at $199, so people following your analysis have lost over $100/share YTD. People who ignored what was going on at GE also have lost, as the stock was at $30 3 years ago, and is now down over 60% at around $10. And, the jury is still out as to whether GE can turn around or go under.

Never love a stock, regardless of it's trading symbol. Never let personal emotions influence analysis -- numbers are numbers, and not all stocks go up. Look what has happened to QCOM since the beginning of the month due to the breakdown on trade talks with China. Down huge, 89 to 69. Look at things with a unbiased view, i.e., if TSLA meets or beats the Street's expectations, the stock will go up. If they don't meet expectations, just like any other publicly traded company, they will go down. Numbers are numbers and that's all that Wall Street looks at, especially FCF. It's all in the 90 day numbers, and it's a cold, ruthless business for every traded stock.
 
Papafox: Just because i have a different point of view of things shouldn't get you riled up. My most recent post featured GE and why the stock market is reacting to what was once the darling of Wall Street under Jack Walsh, and recently flirted with talk of bankruptcy due to mismanagement, with the stock now trading down in the single digits. My main message was -- from an investment standpoint -- never love a stock. Stocks are a cold investment, not a mistress.

And, while you say my negative views on the downside aren't appreciated, let's put this in context. Going back to Jan 1, when the stock was at $332, you were advancing the reasons why it could go past $360. As I write this TSLA is at $199, so people following your analysis have lost over $100/share YTD. People who ignored what was going on at GE also have lost, as the stock was at $30 3 years ago, and is now down over 60% at around $10. And, the jury is still out as to whether GE can turn around or go under.

Never love a stock, regardless of it's trading symbol. Never let personal emotions influence analysis -- numbers are numbers, and not all stocks go up. Look what has happened to QCOM since the beginning of the month due to the breakdown on trade talks with China. Down huge, 89 to 69. Look at things with a unbiased view, i.e., if TSLA meets or beats the Street's expectations, the stock will go up. If they don't meet expectations, just like any other publicly traded company, they will go down. Numbers are numbers and that's all that Wall Street looks at, especially FCF. It's all in the 90 day numbers, and it's a cold, ruthless business for every traded stock.
Main issue: This thread is for @Papafox's post. The general investor thread is for discussion of Papafox and everything else stock related.
 
"In our view, this could set up for a short squeeze in the coming days/weeks/months should deliveries, profits/losses, cash flow/burn come in even slightly better than draconian expectations, or should Musk introduce another business venture and/or longer-term financial target that once again gets bulls excited," he added.
This is not about bulls not being excited, nor it is about lack of business ventures.

It is about bulls being too excited about too many business ventures of Musk that somehow find a way to fail to blossom.
Company is not about making X amount of products, it is about making X amount of profit.

Deal with it.
 
Worst targeted attack on TSLA by shorts that I can recall. Been a stock owner since 2013 and Model S owner
since 2015. TSLA is very vulnerable and the various MM, bears, and shorts have been relentless about pouring on the bad news.

Any long-time stock holders remember a worse time for TSLA (not Tesla) with such relentless, daily attacks?


What's the point though, Tesla are in no danger and will continue to grow at a fast pace. The stock price will recover and make new highs. Seems a bit of a waste of time, all they're doing is setting up a huge short squeeze.
 
You're wrong. We have Model 3 and S. The S is a much better car. Even with the old air suspension, it drives MUCH better than a 3. I can't imagine how much better it is going to be with the new suspension. The interior of the S is much nicer as well, among other things.
I think "better" is very subjective. I prefer my 3, but definitely don't begrudge anyone who prefers the S. There are things the S does far better, it just depends on what you value. It's almost like different car models are for different types of buyers. :)

What's the point though, Tesla are in no danger and will continue to ramp. The stock price will recover and make new highs. Seems a bit of a waste of time, all they're doing is setting up a huge short squeeze.
They are being greedy. That's the point.
 
Yes, they did.

From the report:

We enabled the feature and drove on several highways across Connecticut. In the process, multiple testers reported that the Tesla often changed lanes in ways that a safe human driver would not—cutting too closely in front of other cars, and passing on the right.

Thank you, I did not see that earlier because I read through the article very quickly and apologize for the mistake. I still stand by my issue with the article being biased though. They didn't point out anything positive about Autopilot, nor note that it will continually improve in the future.

Is there really nothing good/positive to say about autopilot?
 
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This is not about bulls not being excited, nor it is about lack of business ventures.

It is about bulls being too excited about too many business ventures of Musk that somehow find a way to fail to blossom.
Company is not about making X amount of products, it is about making X amount of profit.

Deal with it.
Well...GOOD MORNING!!
I see you woke up on the same side of the bed this morning.
Have a magical DisneyDay! as they say in central Florida.

Dan
 
Why has she not been online?
Options story, possibly. Plus no real news for a while now... just a grind to deliver cars, waiting for everything to sprout later in the year.

I'm holding only shares, and just the paper loss makes it tough to come here. When I do, people are pretty negative. We see some stories of Good Tesla Service as if feeling sorry for Tesla when 1 month ago this was all about crappy service. Now its all about demand as quick as the wind shifted because thats a better narrative. When half of these post are pure bullshit, ya stop coming here to try and make sence of it all. For now its all noise.

We have all read here a number of ways that Tesla can pull demand levers that aren't being pulled. Tells me right there it's not a demand issue. More like the hulk transforming and looking wierd. Amazing that analysts recommend selling. This is buying season!
 
To me, the biggest problem with the Consumer Reports article is that they don't seem to know that the new FSD chip is already shipping - they said it was "announced" in April, but still refer to the old chip as "current hardware", as though the FSD chip is a future product.

Consumer Reports, the magazine? maybe I'll pick one up when I return my movie rentals to Blockbuster.