Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

BTW installation costs for my proposed Powerwall is a crazy $6000. Double what they say is the max on their website.

No Powerwalls for me.

 

[mongo]

BTW installation costs for my proposed Powerwall is a crazy $6000. Double what they say is the max on their website.

When dealing with buildings + codes + electricity + utilities, there is no such thing as an upper limit.

 

[UncaNed]

Awesome, thanks. Have you watched that CR video of the 3 driver/testers sitting around a table just shaking their heads at how frightened they were when they tried this option?

They all claimed it tried to change lines into a left lane with a fast-approaching car and they had to override it, and it was so stressful and unsafe. Of course no video. And all other video bloggers have raved about how safe and conservative the lane changes, ESPECIALLY into an adjacent lane with a fast-approaching vehicle in that lane.

My intent is not to drag the investment forum into an AP discussion, but to ask what is going on with CR. Are they making this stuff up, or are they just totally clueless about using the AP? Or maybe the AP is programmed to behave more aggressively in Connecticut? If they are clueless, is there someone that can get them to do a proper test with video? I sure would like to see CR become at least not hostile to Tesla, which they seem to be lately.

Perhaps CR got huge donations from labor unions, fossil fuel and ICE manufacturers. They sure as well aren't serving the best interests of their members, such as myself.

The solution I'd like to see pursued would be to bring these concerns directly to the attention of ALL of their donors, most of which are probably honest.

 

[dhrivnak]

Any reason at all not to bring your Tesla to any tire shop? I am guessing they may not know what tires are appropriate or stock them, but the work of installing must be same. What about alignment?

Teslas need so little regular maintenance that this seems like the main thing left.

Any good tire shop is fine. Remember first and foremost the Model 3 is a car. How often did you take your old cars to the dealer for tires???

 

[Webeevdrivers]

As did lucid, fisker and others. There are several orders of magnitude of difficulty between creating a cool model car to making them en masse. If EM tells you it's insanely hard to make cars and they are still figuring it out after ten plus years, then Rivian has huge barriers in front of them. I am not even going to get into the battery supply/manufacturing problem.

IMO Tesla will crush them.

I don’t think so. Assuming they get to market (which sounds feasible) they will have a market for at least a couple reasons.

1. A ton of people hate Tesla just because...you know...it’s Tesla.
2. I think the Rivian will look a little more conventional than what Elon alludes to.

Jmho.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elektroautos: Tesla Model 3 kann mit Gewinn gebaut werden

View attachment 414790

This means the potential cost of the $35k model 3 with material and labor gives Tesla a 20% profit margin. This is splendid news. $18k for parts $10k for labor give Tesla $7k of profits per standard range M3 sold.

 

[sundaymorning]

I live in Michigan. The MOST Anti-Tesla state in the US. Closest service center is about 3 hours away. Fortunately mobile service is allowed. I have had my Model S for about 2.5 years. Have yet needed to go to the service center. Will be taking it to Toledo in a couple weeks for just general maintenance and a few minor issues. Service is not as big of problem as some like to make it out to be.

Michigan also used to be the most anti-Toyota state.

 

[[email protected]]

Any good tire shop is fine. Remember first and foremost the Model 3 is a car. How often did you take your old cars to the dealer for tires???

Replaced tires on MX recently at Walmart: the skill pieces: jacking, balance and torque, were and are fine. Price? Small. MTCents J

 

[Mobius484]

Can’t wait to see the Tesla truck with like 5 dually diesel coal rollers squealing like pigs getting pulled backwards tractor pull style. Oh that will be a glorious sight....

 

[RFernatt]

No Powerwalls for me.

I finally got a quote on a single PW in a simple installation for $19,150. To be located in an attached garage with concrete floor, 2 feet away from the main breaker box and solar inverter with exposed conduit. We're not in an incorporated city limits, so no real building codes, just the loose county/state stuff. I would like to have one, but that's just unreasonable. In WV, there is only one certified installer and I can't seem to get nearby out of state installers to be interested. I can be in 3 other states in 20 minutes and DC in 90 minutes. I will bide my time.

 

[Doggydogworld]

As did lucid, fisker and others.....
IMO Tesla will crush them.

The others didn't have the factory or financial backing that Rivian has. I'm not as high on Rivian as many, but it's ridiculous to dismiss them out of hand without knowing their background and current situation. Also, I don't get the sense they have delusions about Alien Dreadnoughts and teaching Toyota how to manufacture cars. Not to say they'll have it easy, but don't bank on a debacle.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Awesome, thanks. Have you watched that CR video of the 3 driver/testers sitting around a table just shaking their heads at how frightened they were when they tried this option?

They all claimed it tried to change lines into a left lane with a fast-approaching car and they had to override it, and it was so stressful and unsafe. Of course no video. And all other video bloggers have raved about how safe and conservative the lane changes, ESPECIALLY into an adjacent lane with a fast-approaching vehicle in that lane.

My intent is not to drag the investment forum into an AP discussion, but to ask what is going on with CR. Are they making this stuff up, or are they just totally clueless about using the AP? Or maybe the AP is programmed to behave more aggressively in Connecticut? If they are clueless, is there someone that can get them to do a proper test with video? I sure would like to see CR become at least not hostile to Tesla, which they seem to be lately.

In all fairness, I think there is some variation by car. Right now mine is having some issues with autopilot that started when I got 2019.12.1.1. Occasionally just flashes the red hands and immediately demands I take over, slows down unnecessarily and dramatically on the freeway, and does some wobbling, all of which can make it feel unsafe at times. Probably all just bugs in certain cars(NOA was perfect for me in 2019.8.5), but who knows what the experience was for the CR testers.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

The others didn't have the factory or financial backing that Rivian has. I'm not as high on Rivian as many, but it's ridiculous to dismiss them out of hand without knowing their background and current situation. Also, I don't get the sense they have delusions about Alien Dreadnoughts and teaching Toyota how to manufacture cars. Not to say they'll have it easy, but don't bank on a debacle.

Faraday Future had both factory and financial backing, before utterly collapsing. This is not an easy business to get into. Not saying Rivian will fail(I hope they don’t), but nobody should be taking their survival as a given.

 

[AcesDealt]

This means the potential cost of the $35k model 3 with material and labor gives Tesla a 20% profit margin. This is splendid news. $18k for parts $10k for labor give Tesla $7k of profits per standard range M3 sold.

Keep in mind there is a gulf between this estimate and the current reality of about 10k$ because the SEC reported figure margin is instead 15% today on an approximately 53k$ average price point.

 

[AcesDealt]

Still no ships past #12 on the docket. Is that it for the quarter?

 

[elasalle]

The others didn't have the factory or financial backing that Rivian has. I'm not as high on Rivian as many, but it's ridiculous to dismiss them out of hand without knowing their background and current situation. Also, I don't get the sense they have delusions about Alien Dreadnoughts and teaching Toyota how to manufacture cars. Not to say they'll have it easy, but don't bank on a debacle.

Rivian probably will end up with Amazon ...

 

[KSilver2000]

I finally got a quote on a single PW in a simple installation for $19,150.

That is ludicrous!
You can get about an 8kW PV system installed for that price.

But, then again, the Powerwall as it is right now is not something to buy for economic reasons.

 

[Pras]

.

Still no ships past #12 on the docket. Is that it for the quarter?

Yes, seems like. But even this is too much to handle. Three ships yet to reach EU. Potentially three to China. Again a wave of shorts only that mostly it will happen over 20-25 days than 10 days last Q. Still going to be tight. Plus the US Canada deliveries need to happen too.

 

[neroden]

And from my time as a coder - we will prioritize and enjoy creating new functionality above doing bug fixing. So unless the project has a strong project leader bugs will simply not be fixed.

Implying that Tesla does not have a strong project leader for the software team. Which is not OK.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I'm sorry the COGS of the SR+ is $38-39k? Shouldn't there be more discussion of this?

Shouldn't you be actually showing how 38k is more likely than 34k, than just thinking it is?

Hint : You need very high margin on LR, very little difference between COGS of SR+ and LR to get to 20% overall margin if SR+ is being sold at cost.

Tesla didn't deliver enough SR+ in Q1 to have a big impact on gross margin.

Q1 GAAP Cost of Automotive Sales was 2856m. This was after a 409m adjustment for sales booked in prior periods that have Resale Value Guarantees. COGS for the cars actually sold in Q1 was thus 3265m. Tesla sold 50,928 Model 3s and an estimated 11,072 S/X. They also leased an estimated 1019 S/X. Note that the lease/sale split could be off by ~250 in either direction. Rearrange the COGS equation to solve for Model 3:

11,072 * S/X COGS + 50,928 * Mod3 COGS = 3265m
Mod3 COGS = [3265m - (11,072 * S/X COGS)] / 50,928

S/X Model 3
75k 47.8k
80k 46.7k
85k 45.6k
90k 44.5k

S/X COGS have historically been around 75k. Poor fixed cost absorption probably drove them to ~80k in Q1. I could be talked into 85k. I can't see how they could possibly be 90k, though. I figure SR+ COGS are roughly 5k less than LR-AWD. I base this on a $3k difference in battery cost (22 kWh * 125/kWh cells + ~250 pack cost savings) and $2k for the front drive unit and power electronics. Battery savings could be a bit higher, but extra AWD cost is probably lower.

Q1 deliveries were 50% US (mix of all variants), 40% Europe (all LR-AWD/P), and 10% China (all LR-RWD and above). You can play around with the numbers all you want, but I always come out with 41-43k SR+ COGS and 46-48k LR-AWD COGS.